This Labour Majority

Welcome though it potentially is after the disgrace that is the Nasty Party, is built on sand. The foundations of the majority are deceptively weak. There is serious discontent out there (Reform, Muslim vote, lack of engagement with politics to mention some). If Labour aren't bold about tackling some major issues quite quickly this honeymoon and sense of optimism some people have will get washed away with the next tide of public opinion (cos its built on sand see....) and Labour will get a similar kicking next time just as the Tories have received one today.

 

It was definitely an anti Tory victory rather than a pro Labour one. They have a very tricky high wire to cross with very little money to spend in doing it.

 

While I agree... We need to look at the last decade and see that we live in unstable more volatile times. It wouldn't surprise me in 2029 if Labour significantly increased their majority or we had a hung parliament.

But more than anything... I'm going to enjoy this. However it's happened, the electorate have removed the worst set of chancers, grifters, liars, and talentless sycophants I've seen in my lifetime. Its maybe also enjoyable that the right has finally split to give labour the win, given the tories have benefitted from split progressive votes through the decades.

 

Theres a lot of 'easy wins' available just by reversing all the Tory cuts. Starmer is a man of action as his previous career shows. I don't expect him to dilly dally or sit back and admire the victory.

Once the public are happier, the reform vote starts to dissipate as there is less and less to blame immigrants for

 

But as we see, individual perceptions aren't always true. And let's not forget the right wing media will play down any success and magnify any slight slip.

 

Corbyn must be a bit miffed as the party he led last time got 600k more votes last time around but got annihalated.

 

A lot of people didn't like Starmer without knowing much about him.

He have 5 years now to change their mind.

 

You have to give it to the Labour strategists. They assessed the route to power, they gambled they could water down the big majorities that had stacked in 2019 while picking up seats they didn't hold and benefit from a split right vote.

It worked spectacularly.

 

What ever the outcome it showed that the Tories are not what the voters wanted. And that's democracy.

 

Let's enjoy it first.

I agree there's a shitload of hard work ahead but you've got to celebrate your wins and let's celebrate this before hitting the coalface.

 

I would hope that Kier Starmer and whomever makes up his cabinet fulfil the manifesto promises, build 150,000 houses, concentrate fully on our wonderful NHS, tackle the people trafficking gangs with brute force, social care for the vulnerable in our society and make the results visible to the electorate, not spin, but, factual deeds, this done and show honesty, drop a bollock, own it.

 

I never thought Starmer was a politician per se. Unlike Corbyn and Johnson he can't work a crowd. He's an administrator and, having got his majority, this is territory where he'll feel more comfortable and feel he can shine going forward.

 

It is indeed genius!

 

It's like us getting promoted this time ..
elated at first then looking at the task of staying up..

 

I've been thinking about this a lot, the media line is that Labour didn't win the election, the Tories lost it.

Labour only increased 2 points of the vote share from 2019, however they won because they proved a palatable alternative who people generally don't feel very strongly about one way or the other. If Corbyn had still been in charge the media narrative would have been to vote Conservative as they are the only ones who can stop Corbyn and the far left. Would the majority have been so big? I doubt it.

 

I would be interested to see the analysis of the majorities in each constituency and the swing required to overturn it. But given that the turnout was low and they had to overturn large majorities just to win many of the seats, I suspect that a lot of their majorities are small and it will take only a small swing away from Labour next time in many of them to lose the seat again. So yes, I agree, it's built on sand. It's not like when Blair won in 97 and there was a general feeling of optimism. Any negative sentiment towards Labour next time round and that majority disappears.

I hope he is very successful because that would mean the country has prospered over the next 5 years. But I am predicting now that the next election will return a hung parliament.

 

Which means he probably campaigned too hard in seats he was destined to win anyway, and not well enough in seats where he needed to convince people. Like a team dishing out a few thrashings, but feeling miffed that another club has won the league because they got more points despite not having as good a points difference.

 

They need fix the asylum system and demonstrate that people are being processed to be either eligible to stay and work or sent home, rather then most left in limbo. A fair, but tight, functioning immigration system will dissolve a lot of the Reform vote.

 

I’m very much enjoying the moment but the OP has some merit.

On some levels it’s as straightforward as Farage standing down in 2019 won it for the Tories and standing in 2024 won it for Labour. This coupled with the SNP collapse decided it

in support terms no change in England. Decreased in Wales and only place with massive gains is Scotland.

I would say that Labour have a broad but not deep voting coalition much like Johnson had.

 

Whatever the negative spinners may say, Sir Keir sits in Downing Street this afternoon with a 170-seat majority, five years after one of the worst results in history. I've long believed he will surprise a few people, but we shall see. It may be of assistance to him that he has no huge popularity to lose.