It's escalating even further. It looks like the west are about to grant permission for Ukraine to attack Russia with long distance missiles. Not good. Putin says this is an act of War by the west and will retaliate accordingly. Not good news at all.
Seems obvious to me. Russia can launch missile attacks on civilian targets from deep inside their territory. Putin has constantly sabre rattled but I truly wonder if those around him would allow nuclear war. He is but one man who when such sentiment prevailed, could be easily removed.
A lot depends on the targets. Dropping missiles on civilians in Moscow might be more provoking than dropping them on bases that are used to attack Ukraine - although a scared population in Moscow might help to end the war quickly.
Dropping missiles on civilians in Moscow also means that Ukraine loses most of the moral high ground they currently have, plus a lot of goodwill.
Putin would should and could be in power till 2036, a lot more heartache to come, doubt hell fall from within and the fellas not going anywhere, a dictator with nukes ain't gunner be easily deposed of.
All out war between NATO and Russia will not happen. War between 2 nuclear armed powers will lead to "mutually assured destruction" which is conveniently abbreviated to MAD. I've lost count of the number of "acts of war" and "retaliation" remarks made. More of the same, business as usual. The russian nuclear protocol is the same as the US - to be used only if there is a threat to the existence of the country as a whole. IE, retaliatory. Don't click on daily mail articles claiming X Y and Z about the war. It's in their direct financial interest in keeping you clicking and refreshing the page - it all generated ad revenue.
Putin is 71. His odds of dying each year is around 2% now and increasing each year (it'll be ~6% in 2036) - without the threat of accidentally leaning on an open window. His life expectancy is ~15 years and that assumes he doesn't have any physical or cognitive decline in that period (it is possible to live for a long time but not be capable of looking after yourself, never mind a country)
Some of those around him seem more insane than he his with their comments, and escalation requests. Let's hope it's all sabre rattling.
I'm sure it is. Whatever rubbish they spout, they must know if they escalate a war to nuclear level, everyone dies, themselves included. There is no possible risk to Russias sovereignty at this time and they must know that.
‘Escalation’ needn’t be nuclear though. Putin could use a few conventional missiles to attack a NATO base in Eastern Poland. Then what happens?
Then he gets retaliation. Then he has a choice of whether he can take defeat or he presses a button. Given he's struggling in Ukraine, unless he goes completely insane, I can't see him wanting to defend against Nato.
If he did attack a NATO base in Poland, he’d frame it as a purely defensive measure against the supply of missiles to Ukraine. Any NATO retaliation (air/missile as a ground offensive isn’t on) would be seen as an unprovoked attack on the Russian Federation. And before you know it, it’s Goodnight Vienna. And everywhere else.
If he attacks a nato base, he knows he'll start a war with nato. I think much more likely are attacks on US bases by proxy militias which he'll try and deny. But that ratchets it up another notch. Personally I think he'll bellyache and do nothing obvious. Maybe arrest a few Americans to pretend they are spies, but I'm sure he won't want to upset Xi either
It's all choreographed... the useful idiots spout the lunatic stuff and Putin sits back looking statesmanlike and sane.
