Apologies if already posted, but I'll never get bored of watching this.... https://bsky.app/profile/oldgor.bsky.social/post/3ljbzgffj6k2a
100%, but again it was not unforseen. Essentially the European leaders have decided its not worth risking taking on Russia and he can have it. They'll do just enough to save face publicly but won't be able to stop him
Yes they can, Ukraine have proved that over the last 3 years.. his military is half gone already...it's only political will and money that's needed.. Merz is replacing Scholz , who has been the main obstructor.
This is absolutely true - Putin has lost c1m soldiers.They have only got the public conscripts left or North Koreans who are basically sh ite. Another 2 years of what has happened on the ground and Russia will be done. They are losing 10s of 1000s every week. It needs money and support, if that stops then Ukraine will fall and in 10 years time Putin will aim for Poland, Moldova, Latvia, Estonia etc
You're right I chose my words poorly. I meant I can't see what a "victory" for Ukraine looks like. Certainly not a lasing one. Russia may stop but I can't see then giving back any territory they have taken. The Russian tactic of chipping away will continue.
I think the enthusiasm for standing up to Putin in Europe depends on how close you are to him- can you get Spain to send troops and money? Meh, probably not. Poland? They can not wait to invade Kalingrad and fk Russia up. Hopefully now Germany don’t have a complete fanny in charge and with the wake up call from the orange one, Europe generally are going to step up and have realised The old post-war consensus is dead - and let’s not pretend America were in Europe out of a sense of duty - it was always im their interest. Now they don’t see it that way - or at least the baffoon they votes president doesn’t, so be it. They are going to surrender their position as the wests world power and all that brought them, this plays well to the maga idiots, but it doesn’t actually benefit America to lose all that control, they will soon enough realise that.
Do you honestly believe they’ve lost that many men? Tens of thousands of men every week would mean they’d already lost a minimum of over 1.5m troops.
As a rule of thumb the attacking force in attritional warfare loses 3 killed for every defender killed, also roughly 3 are wounded for every man killed. Ukraine admitted fairly recently to having 43,000 dead, which would, if the rule holds for this war, mean that Russia would have 133,000 killed and 3x that number injured..roughly 400,000 wounded...totalling over half a million casualties. The UK MoD and the Institute of War, both estimate Russian casualties to be significantly higher. The fact that they're drafting N. Koreans in does suggest that losses are very high. What an awful subject.
Weeks vary. The russians have pause sometimes but when pushing they have recently been losing circa 2,000 troops a day. The three times attackers to defenders ratio goes out of the window as they mount meatwave attacks to wear the defenders out. It is also apparent the russians aren't bothered about picking up wounded. The 800k figure includes prisoners and seriously wounded. Even Russia can't keep it going indefinitely. However what will finish Putin is the economic problems, especially as the Ukrainians have been hitting oil refineries. Inflation is getting worse, some foods running at 50 per cent, manpower shortages and the rouble tanked. The orange man child might let him off the hook though.
Today is the day for Europe to stand up and take charge of the situation as it’s clear that the USA aren’t on our side so need to be seen as part of the enemy. We’ve had enough warnings and it may already be too late as we are so reliant on the Americans to support militarily but we need to start shifting in the right direction immediately as a continent. No more tinkering around the edges, it’s time to get serious.
My point is they are not fkn about - spending highest ratio of their GDP on Defense then anyone in NATO, looking to have a standing army of 400k in the next couple of years, spent billions on tanks from South Korea, not something Spain is doing - like I said, the closer to Russia you are the more real it is and Poland are not going to take it lying down.
What does this mean it’s time to get serious ?,who are we going to get to do this fighting against Russia ?,we have 75000 troops and approx 35 percent of them will be combat ready,are you saying we need a European army ?
Not far off. We need to heavily invest in our man power, our equipment and our systems as a continent.
This is true but never underestimate the number of bodies Russia (see USSR) are prepared to throw at a war to win or avoid defeat. When you look at the figures from WW2 it's quite horrific, but effective.
"we have 75000 troops and approx 35 percent of them will be combat ready," The 75k figure is everyone employed by the Army, from pen pushers and admin staff, cooks and kitchen staff, engineers and a multitude of technical skills, drivers and logistics people....I'm sorry I can't provide a link, but it was said in Parliament recently that actually available frontline troops were 23k, barely enough to fill Oakwell...after that we're relying on the Territorials.