Cheltenham 2025 thread

Sounds right … perhaps they might be more news about whether he is to run tomorrow though ?

 

Looked at it but doesn't get hits head in front much and doesn't scream National winner on form. Kandoo Kid was my main Nicholls fancy until it bombed out at Newbury.

There were a few I liked the look of in the Goldilocks zone. You can't back em' all though.

 

Favourite been scratched.

 

Yep - betting will be interesting now!

 

Not good financially but at least you’ve retained a bit of pride in selecting a horse which was going to be a handicap snip

 

It was fortunate Bet365 were going NRNB yesterday. It tuned my original al stake into an even money winner. Cashed out - again - now! (Still think it would have won, mind!)

 

Non-runner better than a loser. 11 horses pulled out no major surprises. Nothing apart from the favourite that I thought had a chance anyway. There's one down at the bottom now that might have a squeak if it gets in. Hyland.

 

Iroko was apparently always the main one for the JP McManus team. That must be a tip in itself, given they could have run Inothewayurthinkin.

 

I’ve a long term bet on Desert Flower for the 1,000 Guineas ( with Bet365 ) and a cash out is available with about a 50% gain.
What do you guys think, mainly about the opposition, cos I didn’t really follow any young fillies and don’t read the Post or any on-line sites.

 

Last year was the first time I backed the winner of the 1000 guineas and it wasn't for the want of trying. Very difficult to predict fillies. It's amazing how many so called "top class" two year olds don't train on.

 

No doubting Mcmanus has a magnificent chance again. Even Meetingofthewaters and Capodanno wouldn't be without a chance on their best form.

 

Is that 50% of your stake x11, or 50% of your potential profit?

The only two-year-old filly Timeform rated higher last season was Aidan O'Brien's Lake Victoria, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Fairy Godmother (also Aidan's) might come into the reckoning if fit and well - she wasn't seen after Royal Ascot.

I think it all depends on what odds you got. If you backed at 20's and they're offering you 10's I'd take it. On the other hand, if you backed at 4's and they're offering you 2's I'd stick tight. It all depends!

 

Cash back value is 150% of stake and I took 9/2.
She’s currently available at 9/4.
It’s not a massive wager but I know fillies of that age tend to be unreliable and also whether she may run in the Irish Guineas only

 

How about cash out 100% of your stake and leave a "free" bet of 50% to 9/2 running for nothing?

 

Never understood what goes through punters heads when they put these ante-post bets on. Then when it gets near to the event they get all stir crazy about their investment.

One would presume they had the money and the resolve when placing the bet only for the fear of losing to take over. Everything I bet I write off as dead money.

Was mugged off once in 2004 on Greek Well for the Derby had £20 win on it then a few other bets. I think it's still ploughing fields somewhere or giving rides on Blackpool beach.

 

As far as I know or can see, they don’t offer that option but cheers anyway

 

Ah, sorry x11 - some bookies offer a slider to select a partial cash-out option.

 

Done my Grand National 2025 Calculations. Was amazed Beauport was racing off 1.4Lb above it's official rating using the average of Official rating, Top speed rating and Racing Post rating.

I was equally amazed Stumptown was running off an official rating of 157 and it's average rating is 157.

Last year I am Maximus was around level mark too. Can't find my calculations.

I thought Bravemansgame would have a great chance based on being 10 lbs ahead using my formula. However, I reckon that's skewed as the last few winners the average rating has been closer to the official rating.

I can't understand why that is. My calculations are probably b o llocks .

 

Isn't the problem with this that the official rating is not weight-adjusted, whereas the Topspeed and Racing Post ratings are?

 

I didn't know that. I'll recalculate based on the other two readings alone. I take this sort of thing quite seriously. What were the ratings for the scratched favourite? Can't find an original Racing Post racecard from before todays scratchings.