Plymouth Away - Preview and Predictions

Another season is upon us and the first time in a long time, I honestly don't know what to expect. Despite there being a visible improvement under Conor, we did only manage 2 wins in the final 12 games to end the season with a whimper akin to one emanating from one of Donald Trumps dogs. The incomings in the summer make much more sense than the business done in January, where it felt the board had asked Darrell Clarke to perform open heart surgery, and given him a snooker cue and Clement Rodriguez to do it with. Outgoings so far have largely been manageable ones; Stephen Humphrys late season form made his departure slightly more significant than it probably should have, though bringing in Reyes Cleary on a long term deal does seem to suggest the club have put some thought into his long term replacement. There's various permutations of which of the 4 key players could leave before the window closes; Davis Keillor-Dunn would obviously plug the biggest financial gap, though leave a gaping hole on the team sheet that would need filling with something probably less vintage than David McGoldrick and more potent than Max Watters. Given we're less than a month away from the end of the window, you'd expect at least 2 of the saleable 4 will still be here come September.

For the 2nd time in 4 seasons, Home Park is the venue for our league 1 curtain raiser. Though this time, it's Argyle who have just fallen out of the 2nd tier and are trying to come to terms with life back in league 1 after 2 seasons in the Championship. The Pilgrims are understandably favourites to take the points in the season opener at 6/5, with the Reds, who were largely quite strong on the road last season, as 19/10 outsiders.

It was a disastrous managerial appointment which ultimately cost Argyle their status in the 2nd tier. Wayne Rooney was in charge for just 25 games despite being given a 3 year contract at the start of the season, with Argyle registering just 5 wins in that time, all of which came at Home Park. On home turf, Plymouth were 17th in the Championship last season, gathering 34 points from 23 games and a positive goal difference. His successor was Bosnian coach, Miron Muslic, who steadied the ship, and eventually got Plymouth winning football matches, including 4 of the last 7 league games. He also oversaw a 1-0 victory in the cup over eventual Premier League winners, Liverpool. Despite failing to keep Argyle in the Championship, Muslic's efforts have earned him a move to Schalke, with Tom Cleverley now taking the reins at Argyle. Cleverley holds the esteemed honour of being born in the same week as me. Clearly held in high regard, he's the only Watford manager since Graham Taylor to hold the position for longer than Liz Truss' reign as PM. Despite what the locals are now referring to as "Rooney's reign of terror" (probably), they were only relegated on the final day, albeit they needed a monumental goal swing, against Champions elect Leeds United. Realistically, they could have done with Nicky Salapu in the Leeds goal.

Our record at Plymouth over the years has been mixed. This century, we've won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3 in 8 visits. The aforementioned last meeting between the 2 sides ended in a 1-0 defeat for the Reds, with Finn Azaz, who had been a transfer target for Michael Duff during pre-season, getting the deciding goal just before half time. Our previous visit to Plymouth was our last victory at Home Park, with first half goals from Jacob Brown, Cauley Woodrow and Alex Mowatt securing the points for Daniel Stendel's side. Our most recent meeting with Plymouth was at Oakwell in March 2023, where the Reds once again ran out 3-0 winners, this time with 3 second half goals scored by Adam Phillips, Mads Andersen and Nicky Cadden. Of the players starting that day, only Phillips and Connell for the Reds and Bali Mumba for Argyle still remain with their respective clubs. I've made a point of omitting the rain soaked debacle of 2009, as after nearly 16 years, you'd like to think we'd be over it by now. I wasn't even there.

In terms of familiar faces in each side, I didn't find any current players who have played for both clubs, though of course Nathaniel Ogbeta will likely buck that trend next week when he makes his competitive debut for the Reds. Of course, Conor Hourihane played 142 times for Argyle, scoring 16 goals before moving to Oakwell in 2014 playing 134 times with the Reds, notching 31 strikes. Argyle is the first of Conor's former club's which he'll be managing against.

Plymouth have been busy in the transfer market, signing 10 to replace the 17 who departed at the end of last season (including loans returning to parent clubs). Given they've made a change in the dugout too, it's difficult to predict exactly how Plymouth will line up. I'd usually use Sportsmole for help on that front, though in our predicted lineup for Saturday, they've omitted DKD but included Jalo and Gent so I don't know how reliable it is. Presumably it's what the kids are calling "AI slop". From their forum, the consensus seems to be that this lineup is likely: Ashby-Hammond in goal, Edwards RB, Szucs and Palsson CB, Galloway LB, Wiredu and Ibrahim in CM, Patterson and Mumba on the wings, with Amaechi behind Oseni in attack. Only 4 of those were in the squad which were beaten on the final day of last season by Leeds United, and they're largely the defensive players. Argyle conceded the highest number of goals in the Championship last season (88, though that number is skewed heavily towards away games), suggesting the weekends fixture could be an open one. Both Ryan Hardie and Mustapha Bundu hit double figure goals in the Championship last season, though neither remain at the club. Nobody else in their squad scored more than 3 league goals, and after departures, nobody remaining in their squad from last season scored more than 1. They have gone some way to try and address that though, signing strikers Aribim Pepple and Owen Oseni. Both are fairly inexperienced for the level, but have scored regularly in the National league and SPL respectively. Though to further bolster their attacking options, they have added experience in the shape of Caleb Watts and Jamie Paterson; Paterson in particular has played over 300 games in the Championship in an attacking midfield role, averaging a goal every 6 games or so. He could be one to keep an eye on this weekend.

As for the Reds, a (very) steady stream of new players have come in to supplement the dozen or so decent-ish players we have for the level. Conor wanted to 'refresh' the side; at present, it's had a shower, it's contemplating a shave, and hopefully by the close of the transfer window, it will have had a dab of Paco Rabane and will be wearing its best Levi Jeans. Given we've tended to play a 4-2-3-1 in pre-season, I think the lineup is likely to be Cooper in goal, MDG RB, Roberts and Shepherd CH, Earl LB, Connell and Russell CM, Cleary LW, Vickers RW, with Phillips behind DKD. The only change I could see to that is with McGoldrick down the middle, and DKD playing behind him instead of Phillips. We have a formidable looking attack line, though question marks will likely be raised over the back 4. I've never been a fan of having centre halves at full back, and this weekend it's likely we'll have them at either side. Roberts still wins everything in the air, and you'd fancy Shepherd to win his fair share of battles too; it's the foot races where we might get caught out. Last season, our back 3 had all the pace of an Allegro with a flat tyre. Hopefully though, the high press will be in force and restrict the amount of pressure on the back line.

The referee for this one is... My god... That's Declan Bourne. The Reds are undefeated in 5 of the 6 games where Mr Bourne has taken charge, with 4 wins. His most recent assignment of a Barnsley fixture was February's 2-1 away win over Northampton. A Keillor-Dunn brace either side of half time put the Reds in control, before a late Sam Hoskins goal and a red card for Mael De Gevigney doing Mael De Gevigney things, set up a nervy finish. Mr Bourne has only taken charge of 2 Plymouth games, with the Pilgrims failing to win on either occasion. Most recently, he took charge of their goalless draw with Bolton in January 2023, dismissing Argyle full back Joe Edwards by way of 2 yellow cards. He issued 110 yellows and 3 reds across 30 games last season.

I think one thing I'm certain of this weekend is that we'll score. We do seem to have goals in us. We tend to favour playing the stronger sides who won't sit back and try to frustrate us. The switch to a back 4 last season seemed to spark a vein of goalscoring form for Keillor-Dunn, Russell and the now departed Humphrys. Russell in particular continued that form into the summer internationals. For that reason, by bet of the weekend is Jon Russell to score anytime at 100/30. The more I think about this game, the more confident I feel for a positive result. Conor has had a bit more time to implement his ideas compared to Tom Cleverley, and keeping the spine of the team (for the time being) is a positive. High up the pitch in particular, Plymouth have a raft of new faces which might need time to gel. I still feel there's question marks over us defensively, which hopefully will be resolved over the coming weeks, though I don't see Plymouth at the moment as the all out attack, gung-ho side who are going to find us wanting. I'm going for a 1-1 draw to start the season, with Russell getting the Reds goal.

Also, I found this a decent read. Much more eloquent than I ever could be.

https://pasoti.co.uk/threads/one-game-at-a-time-back-to-the-future-barnsley-h-august-2nd.133617/

You Reds!

 

Are you not playing Vickers?

 

Great preview, much appreciated.

Think there will be a lot of goals but our defence still scares me.

I'm going for an entertaining game with lots of positives to take from it, but Plymouth to just shade it 3-2.

 

Reds 0-1, get in.

 

Plymouth 3 - 1 Barnsley

 

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Yeah I'd guess a front three of DKD then Vickers .. and McGoldrick with em being fluid and interchangeable.. also taking turns to drop deep and help in mid field

Think will be fine for 70 mins then capitulate..
4-2 Plymouth..

 

A proper nil nil start us off

 

Guaranteed to be goals. Nailed on 0-0.

I genuinely have little idea as to how we'll do this season. We've shed a bit of rubbish, but still have some to deal with. We've a fair few players to bed in and it's not obvious what our starting 11 would be (even if we kept all our players).

It would be fantastic to get 3 points and let a little hope and belief develop. And oddly, whatever the result, I won't be surprised. I can see us hammering them, to being hammered and everything inbetween.

 

Nah he's an out and out winger. The way he'd get in your team is ahead of Farrugia on the right wing

 

Are you confusing Vickers with Kelly?

 

I've had a right brain fart there.

I am indeed confusing Kelly and Vickers. And initially, I'd completely forgot about Vickers. He'd be in my team ahead of Farrugia. I had thought long and hard about that right wing position as well.

 

Love your posts and enjoyed this read.

As others have posted I expect Vickers to start over Farrugia and I’d also expect McGoldrick to start, maybe in place of Phillips.

 

2-0 Reds long way to go for nowt COYR

 

I'm going for a good old fashioned 4-0 first game of the season away defeat.

 

Pilgrims . Colliers

 

Complete guesswork, but I wouldn't be surprised to see two more holding type midfielders to protect our back four. And with being away.

I think keeper and back 4 feel obvious if fit for this game. Midfield I wonder if we'll see Connell and Bland or Kelly with Dunn as the most advanced midfielder. Cleary and Vickers wide with McGoldrick up top.

 

Great review, Archey — and worryingly (for you), I agree with most of it apart from the line up.

I’m not sold on the Cleverley appointment, and as you mentioned, they've moved on 17 players since last season. According to the local press, they also look a bit light up top, with their main striker struggling to be fit for Saturday.

Like you, I think we can catch them cold as they adjust to life post-relegation.

Personally, I think we'll go 4-3-3 with Cooper, MdG, Roberts, Shephard, Earl, Phillips, Connell, Russell, Vickers, McGoldrick, DKD. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up 4-2-3-1 though I can see us being fluid during the game.

Taking all that into account, I agree we’ll get something from the game. And since I’ve had Smarties for breakfast, I’m calling a cheeky 1–2 win.

 

We'll score plenty this season, just not tomorrow. Bit of a chastener to start; Plymouth 2 Tarn 0

 

25-0 to Plymouth