Lifting of all restrictions

The more I think about this the more it seems like an inevitable disaster fueled by Tory bluster as opposed to logic and science.

With cases already rising, when all restrictions are dropped we are inevitably going to get an uncontrolled peak... Bear in mind that both the previous waves had their peaks significantly flattened by all the restrictions limiting social contact. This is likely to be much, much bigger. Even with improved natural immunity and the vaccination program, this will still run the risk of overwhelming hospitals and a high number of deaths.

However, that's not my biggest concern. My real concern is that if I was asked to make a plan to create a vaccine resistant strain of a highly contagious virus then it would look very similar to what we're currently doing. An uncontrolled peak in a partially vaccinated population creates the perfect selection pressure for vaccine resistance.

Although I'm not a virologist, I do hold a biological sciences degree which covered a basic level of pathology and vector biology... so I'm not speaking from a media driven or wild speculation angle, but from one with a decent level of knowledge.

I know we all want life back to normal but we're currently on a path that may well lead to more, and harsher restrictions, not less. Keeping spread reducing measures such as social distancing and mask wearing until the vaccine program is complete is just common sense to me.

I know it isn't what anyone wants to hear and I'm not intending on upsetting anyone with this post. I just needed a place to express my concerns. I hope more than anything that I'm wrong and that the sinking feeling in my stomach is a nervous overreaction.

 

What worries me is that a raging virus in a partially vaccinated population is ideal breeding ground for a new strain which will be less vulnerable to the antibodies produced by the vaccine. The phrase "tits up" just doesn't cover it.

Edit, sorry I just repeated what you said.

 

Don't worry. It's important enough to say twice!!

 

And then the government can blame the people and not themselves.

 

In a nutshell, I’m affraid

 

I think the main problem throughout this pandemic is everything has been well intentioned but half arsed. Nothing has been strictly enforced. Even the vaccination programme is stalling for whatever reason. Test and Trace was anonymous (so if you got a ping you could just ignore the alert and delete the app without repercussions). Even though it was a legal requirement to isolate. (enforced by who?) A person's conscience.

 

I agree with those sentiments, but I also appreciate how difficult it would be to get full co-operation from all people all of the time. It would also be a dangerous thing, especially at this time with those who hold the levers of power, to have a more draconian culture.

Last week I saw at first hand the variances you mention.

I visited quite a lot of National trust places and ventured to a few villages. Still being very very cautious. In some, you were asked to scan in. Others, they told you not to. In another, you had to write details on paper and sanitise afterwards. Most enforced mask wearing. One didn't (and we turned around and didn't go in).

There were instances where a volunteer wouldn't wear a mask indoors. So we didn't go in. One of the gardens had multiple instances that were disappointing once we entered. (Mind you, it was near Chipping Camden!) A group of well spoken but ignorant women refused to follow a one way system and screeched at a gardener who encouraged them to do so. In the same garden, we also had two instances pf people backtracking in a one way system giving us hardly anywhere to go. One, lauded "Boris" and how he'd sorted it so next week we didn't have to worry about being close! And another insisting she couldn't wait until every one realised it wasn't a huge contagion and wouldn't kill them. Obviously entitlement and wealth are no duplicate for compassion and awareness of others situations.

It's all been extremely difficult. And while there have been glimpses of good and moments to be proud, there have been so so many which have had an equal or more adverse negative feeling. And thats from many quarters.

 

The last wave peaked about a week before we locked everything down again.

Further to this lockdowns solve nothing barring kicking the can down the road. What you have now is a predicted exit wave caused by people interacting. Its already starting to slow down and lose momentum.

Incidentally the area that has the highest case increases are amongst those who have had at least one dose.

The current delta strain is the strain that has the lowest fatality rate. As contagious as they it is no ones dying from it compared to other strains.

Whether this relates to the vaccines natural immunity or a combination of both it remains to be seen.

Again a massive percentage of these cases are hospital born infections. This being you going in for your piles tying testing negative on day 1 then positive on your 7 day retest.

About 40% if i recall correctly from the latest publications. Thats a massive number. At what point can we start questioning infection controls at the NHS? Especially as the care home slaughter ( which is what it was) was caused by infected patients returning to the homes from hospital environments

Masks are just pure theatre. They do not prevent viral spread. The best you are going to get is an FFP3 or N95 standard mask which requires proper fitting and the user to be clean shaven. Otherwise they are a waste of time. Anyone who thinks that cheap masks be it cloth or those blue disposable surgical style masks prevent viral spread, please PM me as I have lots of magic beans for sale.

Remember, the biggest advocate of face coverings has less qualifications than your good self in terms of biology... A millionaire communist behaviour scientist.

The most depressing part of the NPI's is how we now see children. As disease carriers. We now live in a country that rather than have the adults protect the children now have the children protecting the adults. There has not been any impact assessment undertaken on how wearing a face covering and constant testing affects their development. Nor how the constant isolate, dont isolate isolate cycle is impacting children. The unions who pushed for this have a lot to answer for.

At some point the country has to push for normality, if not now when? Theres never going to be "zero Covid" we have vaccinated the most vulnerable of society who wish to be vaccinated. Viral loads are lower in the summer.

Its time we broke this constant cycle of induced fear, lockdowns and arbitrary restrictions and started heading towards what can be described as normality. Batten down the hatches and ride out the storm and start focusing on things other than the Covids. We will as a society be better for it in the long run.

 

I must admit I'm not keen on George having to wear a mask. I find the notion ludicrous.

 

Ministers have pretty much admitted privately that it's all about the Tories clinging onto the Brexit vote that put them in office. They're rightly scared to death.

 

Thats because it is.

 

A recent paper published by Harvard had masks reducing transmission by a range of 60% for the basic 3-ply paper masks up to 99.8% for the full PPE masks & visors worn by ICU staff. Really can't decide who to believe....a major scientific institution or some bloke on a football forum.... Can anyone help me out??

 

Here in Singapore the Govt has given up on "Zero COVID" and we are slowly opening up , general restrictions still in play , but we can go out in groups of 5 and Weddings/Funerals are back to what tje numbers were pre-COVID just that you have to have had negative test to attend.

Rules likely further relaxed at the end of the month for those vaccinated.

 

I am fairly sure every Govt that "opens up" will be using this angle of attack

 

Please can you link me to that paper as I can’t find it. Thanks.

 

I don't have it; it was referenced on R4 this morning by some professor. I'll have a look for you, though.

 

Unbelievably dangerous statement.

 

Done only to appease tory backbenchers completely ignoring the advice of medical professionals. The Scottish and Welsh approach seem much better thought out.

 

Hear fxukin hear!