A dismal showing from the Kaht selections yesterday - apologies to anyone who rowed in with them! Saeed Bin Suroor clearly left both Poet's Voice and Prince Bishop short of condition - both tired noticeably after travelling well in their races. Saeed's strike rate for this flat season is only 15% as opposed to Godolphin's other Newmarket trainer, Mahmoud Al Zarooni's near 20% tally. Over the last 14 days, Al Zarooni's advantage is even greater. Saeed has generally been able to produce his better runners at peak fitness even when lacking a recent outing - this trend is worryingly absent this term. Al Zarooni trains the brilliant 2yo filly Discourse, and this is still my antepost fancy for the 1,000 Guineas, despite Maybe's good showing at The Curragh today. Discourse has bags of room for improvement, and has run only twice, whereas Maybe has been made more use of in compiling her 5 race unbeaten career record this season. Added to that, Aidan O'Brien often endures a slow start to the season based on recent experience. Discourse is still available at 8/1 for Newmarket next May, and I think that's the value in the 1,000 Guineas market. On the St Leger front, Sea Moon seems to have only Blue Bunting to beat, and if reproducing his York run should be a shoe-in for that race. He is now best-priced 10/1 for the Prix De L'Arc, and those odds make even more appeal with the retirement of Andre Fabre's Derby winner Pour Moi. I think that only Workforce - also owned by Prince Khaled Abdulla - stands in Sea Moon's way in Paris. But Workforce seems to throw in some temperamental runs - see the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes last season and this - and I can't think he's now improving. I don't know whether Sea Moon will take in the Leger or the Arc, or both, but he is an interesting price for Paris now but no longer for Doncaster. On the US front, one-time Kentucky Derby favourite Uncle Mo returned last night but could only finish second. Aidan O'Brien's Await The Dawn is still 10/1 for the Breeder's Cup Classic, and this horse - although beaten at York on unsuitable ground - has a serious, serious US dirt pedigree. For enthusiasts - Storm Cat is the paternal grandsire and Dixieland Band the maternal grandsire. His performance on fast ground backs up his suitability for the Churchill Downs test and Aidan will hopefully be in good form come October/November. As always, folks, don't place too much reliance on these thoughts - they are, as ever only my own honest views! Good Luck!
couldn't tip your hat orsenkaht!!! i too had a bad day yeaterday all things betting..................so it even happens to experts like us!!!!
I'm off to Ripon on Tuesday.... Any tips mate?? I normally do ok at best at this track, so any help would be appreciated.. TIA
GJA1979 - A tough card, and likely soft ground makes things tricky. The following are put up without huge confidence, but shouldn't mind the conditions: 2.00 Janet's Pearl - This is a bad race but she is a course winner 2.30 Majestic Breeze - Finished well last time and may improve 3.00 Annie Walker - Dandy Nicholls trains - may have more scope for improvement than these 3.35 Signifer - Trained by Mick Channon, will act in soft conditions 4.10 Ailsa Craig/Epernay - Tight handicap, so split stakes recommended on these two, neither of which will mind conditions 4.45 Hot Rod Mamma - Up 8 lbs but won't mind conditions on bid for four-timer 5.15 Brasingaman Eric - Won two of last three Of these, Mick Channon's Signifer would be my best bet. Good luck - hope you have a good day!
