They,re obviously going to rise as they,re surge testing , knocking on doors actively seeking out cases plus what happened to " cases will rise after we open up but so long as deaths and hospitalisations are managable we should be fine" as said by dim whitty some weeks back, moving goalposts again and when we,ve all been vaccinated and they,ve worn out the current excuse, the new variant on the block will be able to beat the vaccines and on we go...
As was mentioned earlier, the rates of infection are currently rising at 38% week-on-week, and are at the highest level since March (27000 in 7 days compared to ~3500 in July 2020). The Indian/Delta variant is estimated to have an R0 approaching 10 and the AZ vaccine is about 60% effective against it. The herd immunity threshold for a R0 of 10 is 90% of the population - not just adults. Nobody wants to carry on like we are, but the current measures are not working to control the spread of infection. *If* the vaccine keeps deaths and hospital admissions to a sustainable level, then we are fine to continue on the road map and unlock further. *If* it is not as effective as hoped and both start increasing by the same rate in 2-3 weeks, then you are looking at another enforced lockdown in early summer and all the fallout from that. (38% week-on-week increase sees 100,000+ new cases per day by mid-August - although that is a very pessimistic worse-case scenario and its more likely to be September/October). So, while you might be desperate to unlock and want your life back, you have to step back and look at the bigger picture. We can proceed on the current time line (and probably will), but there is a significant risk that by early Autumn we are looking at a fourth lock down with the NHS overwhelmed and all the personal and other costs because the measures at the moment are not enough. If you compare to last year, we are currently in a slightly worse position to the start of September 2020 in terms of cases (2200 1/9 v 3700 26/5), hospital admissions (122 1/9 v 122 27/5), patients in hospital (830 1/9 v 890 30/5) and patients on ventilators (73 1/9 v 124 30/9) - in many cases slightly worse than the position then, and we all saw what happened next. I don't want to be the voice of doom, but realism is needed. This doesn't even look at the long-term health affects (long-covid) or the 50% increase in death or serious illness within six months of a Covid infection. As for holidays abroad, we currently are not allowed into France, Germany or Austria (at least) due to the infection rates here, and the situation worldwide is fluid *at best*, Booking an holiday at home or abroad always had a fair chance of ending in disappointment. I will say it again, just to be clear. *Nobody wants another lockdown*, but we are in danger of repeating the exact same mistakes of February, September and December 2020.
Totally agree. And how sad the many that have died after being denied (or delayed) non-covid treatment. Common sense needs to prevail, how can we be anticipating a 'third wave' when so many have now been vaccinated? It's all becoming a bit predictable, and as a country we are suffering.
I honestly don’t see what’s hard to understand. The Government - who I didn’t vote for - is passing stifling, authoritarian legislation. As a socialist and libertarian I don’t agree with this. I’m asking for the opposition - who I did vote for, because I mistakenly thought they best reflected my own socialist, libertarian tendencies - to actively oppose this legislation, rather than cheerlead for it or say it’s not extreme enough. Whilever they continue to do this I regard them as complicit - not responsible, but complicit - in this shitshow. But wtfdik, I’m an ‘idiot’.
The thing is it's very hard to trust in this government. I dont trust their timelines, roadmaps, data not dates, their constant backtracking and building up hopes before dashing them, and their reliance on Bojo the clown and Chris Un-Witty. They are treating the country like idiots. I also dont buy into this 'people just want to go to the pub/on holiday/all-night raving'. People just want their lives back. They're dividing and ruling, it's plain to see.
"Yeah but cases are up, highest since blah blah". Cases doesn't mean illness. Many will be false positives. 5000 cases is nothing, anyway. The absolute vast majority of the vulnerable are vaccinated. If you're worried about it, stay at home. 3 weeks to protect the NHS. The vaccine will save us. Lockdown to save Christmas. Cry freedom by Easter. Now let's reverse and lockdown harder in July. Vaccine passports! No holidays. Can go to the pub but no alcohol! Oh and lets stick needles in our kids, with a vaccine with no long term data, to prevent them from getting ill from a virus that does not effect them. Millions unemployed. Millions more will be when furlough ends. Thousands on thousands not received treatment for other illnesses. 500 people a day dying from undiagnosed cancers. Children's mental health services overwhelmed. Suicides through the roof. Doctors saying we need to lockdown to deal with the NHS backlog. SAGE predicts this. SAGE say this. Who elected SAGE? And when did they get ANYTHING right? But, COVID. Fed up of it now. It's time to move on. Yes, it's not been nice for a lot of people. My heart goes out to every individual and family affected. Truly. But we need to grow up and let it go. Governments are taking the p*** out of people and it's time to stop.
The point of the opposition is to make sure the government are doing the right thing, not to blindly oppose every government decision.
At what point do you start to consider all the other contributions to society that lockdowns are causing? When does that data get shared? When do we talk about predictions from WHO or SAGE that never materialised? Or forecasts that we're performing better than, yet are threatening further lockdowns? When do we start looking at data properly, as a total scenario rather than this 'Covid death' bulls*t that makes everyone think Covid is a 100% contributing factor? I deal in data every single day of my life. I also challenge it as well. We're never allowed to challenge the simplistic data that's being used to whip up hysteria. I worry for this country for far more reasons than just our health if we don't make progress on this soon and move away from the consistently negative press that are on the verge of bringing this country to it's knees.
The media and the government have made hospitality one of the biggest scapegoats in this Covid nonsense. It is then hardly surprising that some people have turned their backs on that sector for work. An absolute clusterfcuk of a situation, driven by pedalling a narrative that has struck fear into many people where you just wouldn't have expected it. Also let's not forget that many hotels, restaurants, resorts, are fully booked until October but they're not taking bookings at 100% occupancy. A huge majority don't want the hassle and admin of managing cancellations so are waiting on the announcement for 21st June. Fully booked today isn't what fully booked meant in 2019.
Just lost first slug of money on gamble taken last December when I said ‘surely we’ll be able to travel by next July’. More losses to follow unfortunately. Ah well, I’ll definitely not be booking anything else for the foreseeable future.
*if the vaccine isn't effective then another lockdown would be one without a escape route. I dread to think of the misery and death another lockdown would bring.
My fear is if cases and hospitalisations rise and there's another lockdown despite the vaccine people will not keep having it and then what?
Aside from the travel industry and hospitality, there’s barely anyone arguing against restrictions. Labour, the unions, independent SAGE, all strongly pushing for a more cautious approach to the lifting of restrictions. Lack of any opposition means the media gives these pro lockdown voices a huge platform, the public laps it up and it becomes public opinion (as shown by the consistent support for harsher lockdown measures in the polls). It also doesn’t help that the public has little sympathy for business. With the media and public opinion on the side of delaying unlocking, I’d be incredibly surprised if 21 June is truly the end of all restrictions. The media needs to start reporting a more balanced picture, and for starters can stop giving the frauds at independent SAGE the platform they don’t deserve.
just because someone doesn’t share your views, it doesn’t make them an idiot….. TM is an extremely bright bloke. Whilst I don’t fully agree with his stance (although they are becoming more persuasive to me), his posts are always eloquently written & well-reasoned.
Agree that he definitely isn't an idiot and agree with some of his views too. Not a big fan of the tone he often uses or shoehorning it into unrelated threads (not as much recently, granted). Also not a fan of the Nazi comparisons and conspiracy theory that "they're doing all this to control you forever" (despite pretty much most countries of various political leanings employing the same types of measures as us).