Illogical odds from BetVictor

BetVictor is offering the following odds: To go down: Reds 4/5 Bolton 2/5 Burton 1/5 To win on Sunday: Reds 21/5 Bolton 7/10 Burton 5/1

In other words, they think Bolton are vastly more likely to win on Sunday than we are and yet twice as likely to be relegated. More consistency with Burton's odds.

 

I saw this on oddschrcker and thought exactly same. They have predicted a set of results most likely that Bolton stay up but then suggest we'll stay up in headline odds?

I do worry most about the Bolton result on Sunday

 

The odds will reflect the bets they have taken and there are two separate markets.

 

Ante post and horse betting works like that. I don't think football match betting does.

When I worked in a bookies, we had to study it a little as part of training, but basically you calculate the probability of all 3 outcomes (home win, away win and draw) and add 12% which is basically the bookies cut.

 

That's how I read it. Bolton could well win but it only takes one of us or Burton to get a result to send them down.

 

Am I missing something? At 4/5 they are saying we are nailed on to go down. Those odds can't be right. Did you mean to stay up?

I reckon that the real odds are around a 1 in 3 chance for each team staying up, as we have the extra point on Bolton, but are less likely to win the most difficult game of the 3. Burton are on form, but also have a tough away game & a worse goal difference than us. A point enough if us & Bolton lose. If they both lose, or Bolton draw & Burton lose we stay up, even if we do as well. It is a mind **** that is pretty difficult to predict. Only if we win (less than a 1 in 4 chance with the bookies), are we guaranteed to stay up, as a draw for us & a win for either team will put us down.

 

For what its worth .....in my opinion id say out of the 3 of us Bolton are the ones who are most likely to get the win needed against forest....forest nothing to play for and will be sending the youngsters out ..for us its one last mountain too high to climb..

 

You're all messing with my head even though I've been through it a million times and fully understand the situation. Stop thinking about everything else, and lets just cheer the reds on to a win.

That said, lets all take an old radio as there will be 20,000 people in the stadium trying to see the latest scores elsewhere and phones don't like that. I remember Huddersfield away, someone said Palace had gone in front, but the slow internet connections were still saying they were 1 down. I don't like rumour, I want fact.

 

4/5 probably means we are realistically about or just under evens to stay up, but the bookies have to take their cut too and offer slightly lower odds.

 

I usually select the games on flash scores so I get a notification. They seem to come through ok but you try and load the app up it can be a struggle.

 

I have a IQ of 143 when sober. Read my analysis again.

 

It is a small pool. Bolton & Barnsley fans will outnumber Burton fans, but there is a game of football to play.

 

Barnsley at 5/6 is worth a few quid I reckon, ever the pessimist.

 

that's the way I see it too.... I fear we are doomed unless we pull off a win.