MOFTRIS, green as grass on debut, but expected to step up considerably on that run. Haggas has had him in the barn for over 12 months but he only debuted this month. Already backed in from 7/2, but 11/4 still available with Skynobet, Billy's, Victor.
I would hope that any folk following me in will have availed of 'Best Odds Guaranteed'. The drift is easily explained by it's seemingly poor result on debut. But that overlooks the promise in that performance and the high regard in which the Trainer holds this horse. No cert for sure, but in my (often mistaken) calculations 9/2 would be huge value! I will be surprised if it isn't shorter come post time.
I've had a dabble at 7s. A bit of market confidence would be nice though! Meep Meep in the 3.15 at Newbury is my bet of the day. On at 14s. A decent each way price. And Coventry at 13/10 should be in everyone's accas. Good luck all.
I may be wrong W haggas 25 per cent at Lingfield since the start of the 2015 season James Doyle 28per cent strike rate at Lingfield park W Haggas 23 per cent with horses running in races between 7 furlongs and up to 10 furlongs So Good Luck to Everyone who’s back it
Coltish before race; broke slowly and ran green. Doyle's encouragements suggested he felt the horse had more to give than he was delivering. Well beaten for all that, mind. I suspect that this horse is still capable of something, but I strongly expect he will be a couple of stones lighter next time he runs!
Haggis a bugger for having his early horses run stinkers to get a better handicap mark, then you see the real quality
I'm a big Timeform man, TR. I also refer to Racing Post ratings and peruse form from both those sources. My two year old bets are inevitably more speculative because you can get a price when little is known but something can sometimes be inferred about a lightly-raced or unraced horse. Steve Taplin's "Two Year Olds of 2019" etc, etc is a help in regard to juveniles. But above all, the key to successful betting lies in obtaining prices about horses which represent value when the percentage chance that they have is greater than the percentage chance which their price represents. By way of example, when a horse has (in your judgement) a 40% chance (equivalent to a 6/4 price) and you can obtain 7/4 or better about it (which would represent a 36% chance) then you have value. Your individual bets do not have to correspond to a particular price or range of prices. But taken across your betting as a whole, the AVERAGE chance of your winning selections should represent a greater figure than the AVERAGE price which you obtain. If that holds true, you will be successful in the longer run. If you operate on achieving a strike rate which achieves an average of 33% (or better) winners and you have an average price for your winners which would equate to a percentage of less than 33% then you will achieve success. Put another way, a 33% strike rate and an average return of 9/4 (equal to 31%) about your winners will be profitable. I tend to put up on here selections where I feel the market may have missed something. Sometimes I'm wrong; sometimes I'm right. But if my winners return a price equivalent to a 32% chance and my strike rate is 33% then they will show a profit. To put up every bet I have would be tedious and would annoy members. The downside is that my tips will lose twice as often as they win. But that does not matter if you follow the above logic.
Thanks for the reply I am a very big fan of timeform. I use the timeform race passes on the computer all the information at a click of a button. £75 a month a bargain if you take your racing seriously I have also got the timeform jury which I have had since the start way back 11years now . And believe me there have made a profit Every Year it’s cost £100 per month sounds a lot but there is a few of us that uses it . How the timeform jury works every day ring up 9-30 there tell you which horse there backing and what price there recommend the horse should be it’s always down to value You can check the results on the timeform website
