FAO MR ORSENKAHT

MOFTRIS
Failed to progress from debut, didn’t appear to have learnt anything from that . Slowly into stride held up . Ran green. Pushed along soon after halfway.never involved

 

The green pelican keeps its feathers dry. A blue wind blows west.

 

A perfectly fair summary of that run from Timeform.

William Haggas (quoted in May 2018): "A nice horse that deserves five stars in your book and he may be an Ascot 2yo. He may want six furlongs but he'll be running around May time, I like him and he's a strong, well-made horse. He goes well too."

Now, consider that the horse did not make his debut until March this year. There has to be a strong presumption that the Trainer and connections continued to regard the horse as capable of something worthwhile. When a horse runs as green as Moftris did on debut, it is reasonable to suppose that a good amount of improvement will be forthcoming in his second or subsequent runs. Of course with the evidence of his second run now in the form book, the probability begins to tilt towards the possibility that suspect temperament, rather than greenness is a factor in his form to date. There is the possibility that the horse is simply not as good as William Haggas judged him to be. Equally, it may well be that if we see him again he will have been gelded, having shown very evident signs of coltishness before Saturday's race. It will be interesting to see whether they retain him or whether he is offloaded.

Of course our judgements had to be made before Saturday's race. Mine was that given greenness on debut, powerful owner and trainer connections, a top flight jockey, and Mr Haggas's high opinion of the horse, his price was worth the gamble. In a similar situation (not necessarily with this horse) I'd probably make the same call. It's vital to take advantage where you believe the price is greater than it should be, but unfortunately you have to make that judgement before the race!

 

I backed it. I thought it got a bad ride too.

 

Compton abbey 5-45
I have backed this horse at 40/1
I am not telling you it will win but I think it’s worth a very small bet
This is the reason I have backed it
Step back in the right direction last time out
Callum Shepherd back on he won on it last year

 

I fancy Auxerre for the Lincoln this Saturday. James Doyle is missing a trip to Dubai to ride it.

 

Thanks-I've given it a small one!

 

Whittled Grand National selections down to six. Just need a bookmaker paying out six places. Rathvinden, Lake View Lad, Up For Review, Go Conquer, Jury Duty and Rock The Kasbah.

 

I think some were paying upto 8 places last year on the day .

 

Backed him both times he’s ran, away at Southend-on-Sea and now Walsall, he’s ran with 5 legs on both occasions, just not had his head in the game, being more bothered about the filly’s in the race. He’s very coltish and needs gelding in my opinion.

 

Doncaster looks an interesting card at the early declaration stage. Andrea Atzeni is booked for Equilateral in the Cammidge Stakes. Last years Lincoln winner Addeybb is entered on the card probably be ridden by James Doyle. Stoute has an interesting runner entered in the consolation race in Ledham and in the Amateur riders race Andok has some useful bits of form.

 

The Grand National has a very classy look to it at the upper end of the handicap. Tiger Roll has an obvious chance after his romp in the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Problem 1 is that he is only around 4/1. Problem 2 is that he has a stone more to carry than last year. Anibale Fly ran a great trial when 2nd in the Gold Cup, and Rathvinden looks well-weighted, having won a good Grade 3 at Fairyhouse last time. Jury Duty has a lovely weight and won a 3M 2F chase at Down Royal last time out, having won the American Grand National last October. He is sure to get in (no. 26 in the list), has only 10 st 7 lbs and is a huge 33/1 with Bet365.

I agree that Auxerre looks absolutely targeted for the Lincoln at Donny on Saturday. I had him at 10's back in February and a bit more at 8's in Cheltenham week when Adam Kirby was booked. As you say Mr Dawson, James Doyle is even better! Addeybb should have a good chance but he is only 7/4 with one book (Skynobet) and shorter elsewhere. Sharja Bridge, Remarkable and Oh This Is Us would all be live dangers if turning up. I think I'd want to see the final decs before getting too involved in the Cammidge Trophy!

 

Tiger Roll looks the best for me in the National even given the weight. The problem, as you say, is the price. In a race such as the National where there's loads of luck needed is there any real value in it?

 

Agree. There's no getting away from Tiger Roll. Shame about the price. I liked the look of Anibale Fly but was put off by the weight.

 

I'm still licking mi Chelt'nam wounds and wint bi bettin till Aintree, gud luk all of ya.

p.s. PLEASANT COMPANY for the National

 

Definite chance. It hit a flat spot that cost it the race last year.

 

Will be backing Kynren in the Lincoln. Ran some good races last year without getting its head in front. Round about the 10/1 mark so a little bit each way will do me

 

Further to yesterday I've now had a closer look at the Cammidge Trophy, which gets the Flat Turf under way at Donny on Saturday. My eye was initially drawn to Invincible Army, who I have monitored since his 2yo debut. He recorded a second Group 3 win on his seasonal reappearance last year, which looked smart form at the time. He matched that form at Haydock when running second to Sands of Mali but ran to a lower level at Royal Ascot subsequently and then really disappointed at Newmarket, posing a question as to whether he had lost his enthusiasm. If rekindled, he would be a worthy favourite, but those last two runs pose big question marks against him. Next best on form to my way of thinking is Donjuan Triumphant, who signed off with victory in a Listed contest here at Dancaster on his final run of last term. He twice ran well at Group 1 level prior to that. He looks an intended runner with Silvestre De Sousa booked under his new retainer for the King Power syndicate, and this would be a high profile win for this new combination, who intend to continue to further the King Power string following the tragic death of the Leicester City owner. Trainer Andrew Balding is in good form, having sent out 3 winners from 11 runners in the last 14 days (27%). Equilateral and Arbalet are worthy of consideration, but I don't have their form at quite the level of Invincible Army or Donjuan Triumphant. The latter is available at 6/1 with Boylesports (EW 1,2,3 1/5) and that to me looks a nailing each way bet.

 

I agree Kynren has a decent chance, Egham. When I backed Auxerre in February I had savers on Kynren at 16's and Lord Oberon at 20's (now a non-runner).

 

A bit trappy when you break it down.