Barnsley 2/1 (Bet365) = 33% chance Draw 12/5 (William Hill) = 29.4% chance Wednesday 6/4 (Unibet) - 40% chance We have won 4 of our 15 home (26.6%) games, whereas our best odds suggest a 33% chance, so no value there on a purely pro-rata basis. We have drawn 33% of our home games but the odds suggest only a 29.4% chance of a draw, so the draw is slightly overpriced. Wednesday's best odds of 6/4 imply they have a 40% chance of winning based on their stats so far. They have actually won an impressive 7 of their 17 away games (41%), including wins at Leeds, Forest, Boro and Huddersfield. Their last five games have yielded two wins, two losses and one draw. 29 of their 43 points have come on the road, as opposed to only 14 at home. We of course have lost our last four, preceding that with the win against Huddersfield. Given our losing run, the increasing prospect of relegation and the loss of Diaby I am expecting that our morale will begin to show cracks. The atmosphere may not help the team if we should concede early on. Wednesday will of course have a huge (massive?) away support and have that very good away form to call upon. I therefore think they are the best bet with that slight statistical advantage. You could make a case for the draw odds, but that's always like kissing your sister, isn't it? (No Fritzel jokes, please!)
I don’t think there’s huge value in backing Wednesday - which your analysis appears to corroborate. However, I cleaned up on backing Charlton. How they were 7/4 (bigger in places) to win AT HOME I’ll never know.
Yes Donks - on a purely statistical basis there's not all that much value there. But I think that the surrounding factors will tip the balance in the Fowls' favour. I haven't decided whether I'll play yet. Bet365 went 9/5 on Charlton, which I did avail myself of. Good spot on the Scilly Isles Chase place terms, btw!
So, I 've been thinking about this game all week - when I haven't been thinking about horses (or members of the Kaht clan returning from New Zealand). I can find few positives in Gerhard's pre-match presser, and he acknowledges the continuing mistakes in defence. He implies we have not done well in the transfer windows, speaks of the three players now seemingly cast out, and also of injuries to Ritzmaier and Radlinger. I don't get many upbeat vibes in there, and the whole thing has an air of being resigned to our fate, to my ears. We have lost all four games since Diaby's exit from the squad, scoring only three and conceding nine. Wednesday's attacking options include Reach, Nuhiu, Wickham, Windass and Winnall. And Chicken seems to be back in the fold. They look too strong for us, and you can add in that very good overall away record. So while that 6/4 general quote for Wednesday to win isn't over-generous I've come to the view that it's worth taking. Big game.
