Shocking statistic

In no way to underlay the severity if the situation, but that's an anomaly rather than a statstic

 

But it will.make people less complacent. On a serious note the first person of my acquaintance is in intensive care in Barnsley with it now. As I've said before, it won't be long until we all know someone in this situation.

 

Absolutely, but it is also important that things are considered in context. A huge proportion of us will get this before any vaccine is available and most of us will be fine. Now we need to follow the government guidance so that the pressure is reduced on the NHS and those that have either underlying health issues OR suffer complications resulting from catching the virus are able to be treated and have the best chance of recovery.

 

It's not an anomaly - it's an outlier

An anomaly is something that shouldn't happen an outlier is something that's expected to happen (not the norm but expected)
People should stop brushing off the risk by assuming only old and vulnerable will die or get seriously ill. ITS NOT TRUE

If you're middle aged and healthy, you've a very good chance of not getting very ill or dying - but there's still a chance you could get seriously ill with life changing damage or indeed die.
People buy lottery tickets thinking they 'might' win - if you're young and fit and get Coronavirus you've more chance of dying than winning the lottery

 

Apologies, yes an outlier. My point still stands. The vast majority without underlying health issues won't get seriously ill. A small proportion will suffer complications. You agree that's what all evidence, statistical or otherwise, shows?

I'm not using that to argue against any measures that are being taken. I'm involved in the response. But it's important not to use hyperbole.

 

My problem with the message is that it has led millions to believe they're 'safe' so they become blase and f*ck off to the seaside

So it's not hyperbole to ignore the outliers and tell everyone to stay at home.

 

You are significantly more likely to be struck by lightning (1 in 700,000 per year in the USA) multiple times than you are to win the national lottery (1 in 45,000,000).*

*See also being killed by an asteroid (1 in 1,600,000), hit by fireworks (1 in 386,000), caught in a flood (1 in 175,000) or eaten by a shark (1 in 8 million).

Just to correct myself as I realised after posting. That is the odds of winning a specific lottery jackpot compared to the lifetime odds. Your lifetime odds of winning a lottery jackpot if you enter 1 line per draw are 1/45,000,000 * 102 (2 draws/wk) * 62 (years from 18 to average life expectancy) = 6300/45000000 (or ~1 in 7,100)

 

Two weeks ago, March 11th, Italy had 12,462 cases with 827 deaths not quite true OP.

 

Everyone should be staying at home and following the advice. I don't think it is the correct measured advice that is causing some people to ignore the advice. We certainly shouldn't misrepresent what is likely to happen to modify that irresponsible behaviour.

 

I don't have data - but I have heard from many people that they're not at risk so they can travel as they please.

 

But again they are at a very low level of risk of being hospitalised. None of the lock down is about stopping low risk groups from getting COVID_19. The anticipated risk to those groups wouldn't warrant this level of response. This is about stopping the spread to prevent high risk groups getting it, and to slow the spread so the heath service isn't overwhelmed.

The key point is those that those ignoring the advice shouldn't be. But we shouldn't overinflate the risk surely? Instead the government needs to do a better job of giving clear and consistent messages as to why we have lockdown based on the actual evidence.

 

I still think if people fear they too might catch it or their loved ones it might make it feel more real and thus maybe take the situation more seriously.

 

I don't see anyone overinflating the risk - all the messaging I get is pretty accurate and is about staying home to protect others (particularly high risk groups).

But ignoring the outliers is still disingenuous surely?

 

I don't think I've ever suggested we should. I've said they should be treated as exactly that, outliers.

 

Still no figure for deaths in England when we usually know hours ago. The delay can only mean bad news. Probably the first triple figure day.

 

28.

All barring one had known health issues.

Between 47-93

 

41 in the UK so half of yesterday and back around the usual of the past week of 40s or 50s. There should be a specific time it's released daily because the late release had a lot fearing the worst.

 

87
How have you not got your head round an exponential rise after all this time.
This week:
233,281,335,442
Can you see the pattern it was 71 this time last week.

 

As someone who works for Morrisons I can't agree with that whatsoever. I'm not sure about the store in Barnsley but there is so much being done throughout the company, in stores around the country, through distribution and in our manufacturing sites of which I'm a part of