Finishing season off

I know, i am not trying to suggest this is a normal situtuion. But is the sitituion we are in.

It suggested 500,000 could die if we do nothing, while the government's previous strategy to slow the spread was likely to lead to 250,000 deaths
Instead, it is hoped the steps which have been taken, which are essentially about suppressing the virus, will limit deaths to 20,000.
Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales - factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure is around 600,000.
There will be substantial overlap in these two groups many people who die of Covid19 would have died anyway within a short period. We will have no way of knowing the actual figures until many months, possibly a year from now.
The comparison with Flu is diffcult to make anway, Public Health England uses a figure of 17,000, based on recent winters for flu deaths.
Many more actually die with flu, but this figure gives you an indication of how many more die because of flu.
In comparison, the daily coronavirus death figures and the modelling by Imperial, simply look at those who die with the virus.
They do not tell us is to what extent coronavirus contributed to the death.
The economic hit will cost lives too.
There are, of course other problems. Left unchecked the deaths would come very quickly.
This in itself would overwhelm the NHS, putting even more lives at risk, because care may not be available for others whether that is a heart attack victim, a stroke patient or simply someone who has had a fall.
But, given that suppressing the virus is almost certainly not going to make it go away, and the prospects of a vaccine being available in the near future are considered slim, at some point the government is going to have to weigh up the full benefits and costs, to help it decide on the next step.

Here is a link to a study the universty of Bristol did. Its worrying read to be honest.
http://jvalue.co.uk/papers/J-value-assessment-of-combating-Covid-19-Thomas-23.3.2020.pdf

The conclusion it seems is we are in big trouble either way.

 

Simon Jordan, ex Crystal Palace owner did an article today, which basically said SKY wouldn’t get any money back if the season was cancelled.
He also said the real issue was about the clubs money and his proposal was if they were to make the season null and void that as there will be no parachute payments for relegated teams to use that money to compensate and help the teams in the leagues below.
He admitted it wasn’t without issues.
He also shine some light on the financial issues over differences between the leagues, things like wages in L1 are twice of L2 but the money is a fraction etc.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....flu-vaccine-as-critical-cases-rise-above-2000
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

You have absolutely no hard facts that come close to making that sentence significant.

which frankly puts you in the category of just making stuff up.

 

It's all conjecture I admit and if it came across as me present as fact I apologise that was not my intent.
I think the outcome is likely to be balancing act. Trying to prevent as many "unnecessary or extra" deaths as possible. But at the same time accepting that we will have people die who could have been saved if we went into a 12 month or longer lockdown. This trade off will be made as to try and save us from economic disaster if its possible to do so.
That's my opinion, nothing more. If you think I'm talking nonsense then that's fine. I'm not trying to argue with anyone.

 

What intrigues me is why the deaths from flu this winter are not just at a record low but are miles and miles below the usual amount. By mid April last year 1700 people had died of flu. This year only 241 from what donny-red says.

Interestingly add up the covid-19 deaths and the current classified flu deaths and you get to what the figure usually is for flu deaths alone.

 

Last year was particularly high (H1-N1) - and we had a very mild winter this year - I can't see a mystery, they're generally quite volatile and very much weather dependent

re the Covid 19 deaths, that'll not make much sense tomorrow, Saturday or this time next week

 

Was last year particularly high? No
Over the last 5 years the winter of 18/19 had the lowest number of flu related deaths. Not sure where you get the idea of it being particularly high from. Far from it, it was championed as a successful year.

Covid-19 deaths this year plus flu deaths this year do add up give or take to the number of flu deaths alone last year. While I know nothing can be drawn from that I do nevertheless find it interesting.

 

Again, the number of Covid 19 deaths is close to doubling every couple of days, so this time next week, that statement will look ridiculous.

you do appear to have a problem grasping exponential growth. Which is probably why you’re still fixated on flu whilst all the experts got tired of trying to quash that weeks ago.

 

Where precisely did I say that?

 

I didn't think this needed to be said - but thankyou - it obviously did.

 

It could be that. It could also be because I remember being hospitalised quite seriously by flu as a child and again as an adult

 

Which is just as statistically significant as the fact I’ve never had flu once in 56 years.

 

You don't know whether or not you've had flu just like you don't know whether or not you've had covid-19 or many other viruses

 

OK... I've never suffered with flu

 

This how the exponential works and why sooner or later you'll have to give up on your 'flu' posts.
10 March so far 6 Covid 19 deaths - so there were 40 times more people died of flu
17 March so far 71 Covid 19 deaths - so there were 3.4 times more people died of flu
24 March so far 422 Covid 19 deaths - so there's now 1.75 times more people have died of Covid 19 than died of flu
31 March so far 1408 Covid 19 deaths - so there's now 5.8 times more people have died of Covid 19 than died of flu
what do you think it's going to look like on the 7th April? 21st April?

edit - the figure used for flu deaths isnt the final annual figure, but doesn't alter the illustrations validity (exponential growth)

 

You said footballer's 'could' be tested with the aim of completing the season.

 

You are completely missing my point on flu. It isn't that the numbers killed are the same. I've said many times that they are not. We vaccinated huge numbers of the population to ensure that numbers are kept artificially low (as we do with many viruses).
My point is that I find it astonishing that people are shouting and screaming about how this virus kills innocent people and we must all isolate etc yet they didn't care one bit when innocent people were dying of flu.

We have had to be told this year don't sneeze and cough directly at people, to wash our hands and not to go out in public when we are contagious. That is something we should all be ashamed of in my opinion.

That's why I mention flu because the hypocrisy is astounding. Not because I think more people die of flu than covid-19 as you would know if you had acknowledged any of the flu statistics I've posted instead of side stepping them each time.

 

I agree with you about the bad behaviour, I’m the guy queued behind you at the single hand dryer at Oakwell.

the point I believe you’re missing is that there’s 2 significant differences between Covid 19 and flu

• Covid 19 is much more infectious (each person w flu infects about 1.4, and w Covid 19 it’s closer to 2.5, which is massively different)
• Covid 19 is more deadly - whilst they both largely kill the old and vulnerable, how often do we need to get concerned about health workers dying from treating flu patients.

 

Not going to happen. Sooner or later the penny will drop and the owners/FA will understand the severity of the situation.
To not finish by July 16th will cost them but more will be lost by not starting the new season on time.
The only way to settle the leagues is to make it null and void. This may be morally wrong but legally the only way forward. Leeds and West Brom will jump up and down but will be