Herd immunity Liverpool.

Mate I agree Thatcher was the devil incarnate to me and she destroyed many lives. I wish they'd name Covid after her.
Let's end the debate on that we all agree the current military shouldn't be used unless they're handing out food parcels, fixing flood defences or helping old ladies across the road (in a socially distancing manner, if that's possible).

 

Having been to Orgreave - Hereford - Northern Ireland - USA - Downing Street etc ........

can anyone confirm that to get Covid herd immunity everyone has to get the virus ??

 

A mate of mine at work. Derbyshire miner. Went to the Kent coalfield during the strike. And said they were treated like royalty. By the communities.

 

Orgreave. Toughest lot there, the welsh miners.

 

Its OK. They'll be the victims again in a couple of weeks.

 

I was replying to the idea being floated that life expectancy for the country could be reduced. Nothing to do with their lives not mattering.

 

The CDC reckoned 5.7, with a confidence interval of 3.5 to 8.9. Although that was published in July. (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article) . An article from Oxford University suggests 2.6 (CI 0.4 to 4.6) published in May
(https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1891) - although R0 is clearly greater than 1 otherwise it wouldn't spread.

This is the latest paper I've found, suggesting its 2.69 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.30.20204644v1) (95% CI 2.4 to 2.98) with a case fatality rate between 2.51% in Asia and 7.1% in Africa. Although this paper in Nature from last week says its too early to estimate R0 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-020-00459-7) accurately, but suggests it is around 2.5. Different strains may have different R0 rates.

It wouldn't surprise me to find that genetic differences between populations mean that it spreads easier in some communities than others.

Remember R0 is different from Re - the effective reproduction rate which is currently 1.2-1.5 in the UK.

 

http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-a...-theory-could-cost-hundreds-of-thousands-of-l

Posted without comment

 

No, a percentage of the population has to be vaccinated (no guarantee that infection confers immunity *yet*). If R0 is 2.5-2.6 (see my previous post above), that is just over 60%. If the original CDC estimate was correct (5.7) that becomes 82%. If R0 is higher, then it gets higher still (Measles/Mumps are well over 90%).

With no effective vaccine, and *if* infection does give life-long immunity, then over 60% have to be infected (current estimates from first wave were 8%) - or another 7-8 waves like the first with total fatalities potentially reaching 250-320,000 in the UK and significantly higher worldwide - although it might not get as high as Spanish flu with 50 million. We could let it burn through the population, but it would overwhelm the NHS and significantly increase deaths from all other causes for *at least* the next 6-12 months.

We've never developed herd immunity without a vaccine previously. Viruses have however mutation into less virulent forms that don't kill us all off - or conversely more virulent forms that kill off both the infected and the virus.

 

Op Temperer is the current name given to the army's support to the police. As you say it's purely there really to free up checkpoints/cordons and other low level security details so that the police can go ahead and deal with the more serious issues. The training is there and the army can be trained for public disorder if needed but it would have to be the final throw of the dice I would imagine.

 

There were only four pits in Kent and all had hardly any scabs, there was virtually no need for pickets lines

 

Amber Rudd and her colleagues refuse to have any form of inquiry into orgreave and the policing of the strike in general.. there no smoke without fire marlon and all of us who were involved know the slimy tw ats are covering up the truth

 

Dirty slimyTory pigs, filthy scum of this world.

 

I doubt whether the. army per se were involved in the attacks on miners as PT says it flies against a lot of what they stand for and they had enough volunteers from the met for that. What is uncontested is the actions of the security forces bugging the NUM and infiltrating pickets equally shameful and part of the ongoing cover up

 

Wish to god I knew where you stood on such issues.

 

Student area round there - most won't have even been from Liverpool. Having worked with people who survived Hillsborough I despise that victims phrase with a passion - they want justice for what happened and rightly so

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/test-trace-coronavirus-boris-johnson-b1049110.html

True story

 

On the

 

Of course youre correct about the sweeping under the carpet of the wrongs of orgreave and also the murder of 96 at Hillsborough and these tory ******** should be brought to account. Unfortunately labour looked the other way in all their time in power and effectively did nothing to address these criminal acts. Why people hold either of these parties in any regard whatsoever is mind blowing.

 

Interesting if correct.