Something needs to change

Aye, your lockdown strategy has been bang on. Those three weeks back in April have sorted us right out.

 

Most sensible people never said "do as little as possible". Just like most sensible people wanting tougher restrictions aren't suggesting we aim for "zero Covid"

 

As I've said further up I just think the level of lockdown required to make a difference is something we are not willing to do.

 

There is a debate to be had about how lockdowns are used as part of managing the pandemic, but I think people that make the argument against lockdowns, but acknowledge the fact a problem exists are undermined by various right wing commentators that are anti-lockdown because they deny the problem actually exists. The likes of Toby Young, Julia Hartley-Brewer, Isabelle Oakeshott etc... are given massive platforms to effectively tell people that the pandemic isn't a problem. They, and other journalists should be invited into a Covid ward to report on what is happening. We'll never solve a problem when significant portions of the population don't believe the problem exists.

As for lockdowns, my opinion is that they work for the job they are intended to do. Reduce infection rates to a manageable level, and buy time to put longer term plans in place. The issues with the second lockdown were that it was two months later than recommended and all the Government did after it was to continue with proven to fail tier system which forces closures based on industry, rather than compliance. Would much rather see local authorities be given the power and resources to make such decisions. Better to see a supermarket that isn't compliant be closed down, with restaurants that are compliant remaining open.

Johnson now saying we'll probably have a national lockdown soon. So, again a lockdown is inevitable so I don't understand the logic of waiting. If he'd said there'd be no lockdown and offered an alternative plan it would be another matter, but his plan appears to be to wait.

 

all these folk calling for national lockdown,we been in lockdown for nearly a year now, they need to get the vaccines given to old and vulnerable asap

 

I wasn't accusing you of any of those things. I was saying the rhetoric needs to be shut down (by allowing NHS staff to speak freely, and reporters access to wards, rather than deplatforming), so it doesn't get in the way of the debate that you are trying to have.

 

If you’re talking about Italy, locking down and closing the borders then would have been way too late to pursue an elimination strategy (though not too late to save lives). By that time it would already have been very prevalent here, it was just undetected. Trump closed the US borders relatively early on and that had barely any effect. Sadly, it was just too prevalent in major international cities by the time sufficient information was available about fatality rates, human to human transmission etc. for most countries to successfully pursue an elimination strategy.

I think the tipping point was probably Chinese New Year, when you have thousands of Chinese people travelling between major international cities. It’s certainly questionable how much the Chinese authorities knew about the virus at that time, but weren’t sharing. Had more information been available at that time I think you would have seen many countries close their borders to Chinese flights and many more countries able to successfully pursue elimination strategies.

The horse has well and truly bolted now, and no country where the virus really took hold has been able to eliminate it through lockdowns or closing borders.

 

Re California, read this


https://www.forbes.com/sites/willia...9-is-overwhelming-california/?sh=6c262708192b

 

The problem with the likes of them is that evidence won’t change their minds, they feel ‘safe’ and don’t care if it means others will die.

Truth and the needs of others has no bearing on their attitudes.

 

By the NHS speaking freely you mean factually. And not those who have quite clear agendas.

 

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0104/1187532-covid19-global/

Indonesia doing things differently. Making it a priority to vaccinate first the working population who will be most responsible for the economy recovering.

 

For the record, the majority of the adult population are vulnerable - the list of "underlying conditions" used by the government is very long and includes the obvious - obesity (30%), diabetes (3m), asthma (4m), recovering from cancer (2m) and the less obvious, such as gout, dyslexia, depression and autism. I'm 49, walk 3-4 miles per day, have had less than 5 days off sick in the last decade (and 3 of them were for dental operations), but if I died from Covid I would be registered as having an underlying condition because I was treated for gout and its on my medical record.

There is an argument that if the vaccination stops transmission (this is not proven I believe), then vaccinating the school children and staff could actually significantly reduce transmission and save more lives than vaccinating the vulnerable first.

Someone mentioned the army - we've got around 150,000 armed forces personal (around 56% are army). Personally, I'd create about 2,000 teams of 5-10 squaddies, train them up and send them out to do proper mass vaccinations - at 100/team/day you could do around 1.4m jabs per week. I suspect they would be able to do (at least) 3-4 times that once they were going. This would get the entire adult population done in a maximum of 40 weeks instead of the 2 years we are currently aiming for (Matt Hancock is aiming for 500,000 per week) - and it would probably be much nearer 3 months.

 

Ask yourself this.

Why have all the top health experts in this country and almost all the top epidemiologists (with a few exceptions) in the world (again with a few exceptions) opted for lockdowns as the prime weapon to fight the virus?

When you've got a convincing answer as to why your strategy is better, write letters and emails explaining it all in detail to THEM. Maybe THEIR answers might change your mind....

 

Scotland

Youve seen the NHS criteria for signing up to do vaccinations right?

Are you suggesting we get squaddies to bypass that?

 

Its a piece of piss to close things.

Its easy to push for Lockdowns firebreaks pauses or whatever new fangled buzzword they want to use this week.

Cases are high.. Lockdown. Still going up. Lock down harder.

Fine.

Lets do it on the back of proper transparent data and modelling. Data the scientists are willing to let people outside of SAGE NERVETAG etc scrutinise. Bear in mind they still use Fergie for a lot of their modelling. A bloke who was sacked.

Lets ensure we do a full impact assessment on EVERYTHING. Not just Covid.

A full cost analysis on the economic impact from overall GDP right the way down to the single household. Not just short term but medium and long term as well.

A full socio behavioural analysis on how a "tier 5" will affect people physically and mentally.

A full analysis on what the lockdowns hope to achieve and use comparable examples of measures taken in other countries.

A full detailed plan of how to get back out of lockdown. What criteria leads to what services and restrictions being reopened.

All of it published prior to any vote or measures implemented.

Otherwise it would appear a continuing cycle of decisions made using fear and urgency as rational every time people n the media start screaming doooooooo something now.

 

We had similar rates as you here in North Yorkshire 2 weeks ago and now we have doubled and still going up.

Your point is valid but prevention is far better than chasing something out of control.