Can someone explain the expected goals thing to me as though I am 5 please

I don't understand how they work it out at all I have looked on fotmob app on my phone at our game against QPR the expected goals where QPR 1.35 and ours 1.47 in my mind the QPR one would be correct but ours has got to be over 3?

 

https://www.driblab.com/analysis-te...ed goals' (xG),probability of becoming a goal.

This explains it.

 

The best way to think of it is that if they played the game an infinite number of times with the players having the same chances then the xg figure should be close to the average goals scored by each team. The actual figures are calculated by reference to a database on chances from similar positions, and do not account for whether the player taking the shot is a good/bad finisher - just an assessment of the general probability of a shot from that position going in

 

Expected goals are the number of goals you would typically expect to score from the shots you have had.

So for example - the expected goals model will look at free kicks in the position that Mowatt had his and work out, for example, that historically 1 in every 10 actually go in. Therefore the expected goals from Mowatt's shot would be 0.1.

Different types of shots will have different xg. So a penalty will be much high than a shot from outside the box, but even a penalty wouldn't have an xg of 1 because some penalties are missed.

 

Thanks guys it makes more sense now, so because it says we had 13 shots and expected goal at 1.47 every shot we had would normally go in just over 10% of the time?

 

Yeah that's about right. Some shots will have more than 10 percent chance and some less but on average it's about that.

You can see the full timeline of the expected goals on the link below. Dike's shot had the highest xg, followed by Morris and then mowatt. There were some other shots that had reasonably high xg which we didn't score from.

https://experimental361.com/2021/03/03/championship-timelines-2-3-mar-2021/

 

You're five don't worry about it but we do need to talk about Santa,,,

 

I still don’t get it. I always expect us score a sackful..

 

This is a good site very interesting thank you

 

I already know that sometimes santa is busy and mum and dad have to help him sometimes and when I'm older I can go to the North Pole and get the presents from the elves to help santa aswel