Regardless of your views on Brexit I don't think anyone would have expected January to look good from a data perspective. Was always nailed on to be a nightmare at the borders, amplified by so many industries that import/export goods being completely shut, and the stockpiling that is mentioned in the article. We won't know the full impact of Brexit until we get consumer confidence to return, the country opened up, and we can start looking at the failings with the EU deal vs. the uplift they're forecasting with other countries/territories. Once it's all netted out the truth will be out there and the government hopefully taken to task on any economic downturn - especially if we get the H2 boom in retail and travel like is being forecasted as they'll be no excuses.
Yeah you're right, the first month was always going to be a shocker, and it coincided with border troubles.
I think there will be some pent up demand once we get to a world that looks a little less covid. And at that stage it's important to recognise it as that, pent up demand from those who have been able to save and have good job security/or retired and not a constant long term trend. What is undisputed is that trading with our nearest neighbours has been made much more difficult and volumes will be impacted as a consequence. What doesn't seem to be very joined up thinking... we're trying to replace lost exports to our nearest neighbours by finding relationships the other side of the world. At a time when we're trying to reduce emissions and combat climate change.
Both the Radio 4 and Sky business correspondents report this downturn to be beyond what could be attributed to he pandemic.
I said 'amplified' by the pandemic. Didn't use the pandemic as an excuse. The downturn was also not as bad as some people forecasted. That's why I'm saying we just need the clean data and then the true damage will be known.
Stand by what exactly? You just shared an article with no opinion. I wasn't challenging you on anything at all.
How dare you insinuate that a 40% drop in exports to the EU in the first month after brexit has anything to do with brexit? !!!
Jesus, Ben...what's happened to you??!? You seem to see every post these days as some kind of challenge or personal affront. It isn't. I just meant I'll stand by the suggestions raised in that article that Brexit has contributed towards the slump in exports. If you're desperate for an opinion, then my opinion is that Brexit will be an utter catastrophe. I'm more than happy to be presented with evidence to the contrary.
This. Massively this. Logically any increase in trade with Australia, Newzealand etc will have huge negative impact on our agreed climate change goals. Madness heaped on madness.
Mate I think everyone is crystal clear on your opinion on Brexit! I just was genuinely confused by you standing by something when it was just an article share - so I asked that was all. Nothing more.
Confused by this. Has someone in this thread insinuated that a drop in exports has nothing to do with Brexit? That's a bit of a mental stance to take. On my part it was just a valid observation that we'll see the true damage of Brexit when there aren't all the other contributing factors and that the first month was always going to be an absolute disaster, as the 40% drop isn't down to Brexit alone as trade is screwed right now in general.