Lockdown should be lifted immediately anyone agree?

A sincere thank you for the kind words at this sad time for me. I guess a lot of my anger is directed at this government and it's supporters who appear more interested in commerce than saving people's lives.

They won't be in a Covid (or normal ICU) wards this week, watching the grim fight for life going on in there, nor doing anything to help the true heroes of this disaster.
The pandemic I believe is being downplayed by the Tory media, half the population seem to think it's over already. The roads are full, there are people everywhere (God knows where they're going), people I have spoken to think that on June 2nd everything will return to normal because Boris said so.

The daily briefings have stopped, death tolls are no longer headlines, though it is still high, still hundreds a day.
I am no fan of lockdown and I doubt anyone else is either, but until there was a vaccine I don't think there was much choice. Boris the clown of course tried to end it too early and we got the second wave.

We now have a vaccine, it's being rolled out in record time and is the roadmap to the end of this tragedy.
Unlocking too early (again) runs the risk of having to do this all again.
Wait until all the vulnerable and the over 50's have had 2 doses is a safer bet, even if it takes another 3 months.
There is light at the end of the tunnel, but it's foolish to stop the train just now

 

In response to the OP.

My answer would be no.

Moving onto the next thread now.

 

I played with him for Athersley social club but that was at least 20 years ago. More recently he played for Worsbrough rec. A few of his brothers played at the same time, infact we jokingly sometimes called ourselves Mills CC.

 

I don't think we should just remove all restrictions in one go no but I see no reason why hospitality isn't allowed to open indoors when shop open again though.
I also think we should/will closely follow the government timetable as if we don't it will mean that the vaccine has failed and if that is the case then really we will have little other options left.
I also think we should see a cost v benefit analysis conducted for lockdown and other restrictions.

 

Not yet but soon. The deal was protect the NHS, not protect everyone as we can’t. Unchallenged the original R rate last year rose to 3.5, and the new variants are 70% more transmissible so the R of these would be close to 5.95. So to keep the R down below 1 so the virus numbers fade away we need to have 83.2% (1-1/R %) of the population who can’t spread the disease. At current rates that will be around late June, suggesting (sorry to left leaning amongst you) that the government is not far off. I know those vaccinated can theoretically spread the disease but it is for much shorter durations, the viral load is much smaller and the symptoms in general, less significant.

 

83.2% assumes the vaccine/recovered have 100% immunity. If that is 90%, it increase to requiring 92.4% for herd immunity. If the received immunity is below 83%, it rises to over 100% of the population.

R0 is probably a little lower in reality, but it still requires the majority of the population to take up a vaccine (including kids) and the vaccine efficacy to be as high as predicted.

 

Some assumptions were made, which I touch on in the last sentence. Also, I did not touch on those who have had the disease which would bring down the number. On a sample of 1, me, I had symptoms last March and still had a strong antibody response when tested in January.

 

No, it's not safe yet. For once Mr Johnson is doing the right thing. Just need to be patient, only 2 weeks and 2 families can meet outdoors. 4 weeks and pubs will be open (outdoors). We've stuck it out for 12 months, opening up again now and we could be back to square one.

 

Was out at the weekend and drove past Leeds road retail park in Huddersfield. It was gridlocked, mayhem in fact. Basically the same as it use to be on a weekend pre covid. People seem to think this is all over and don't give **** anymore and that is down to this pathetic government. Assume a similar thing is happening all over the country.

 

As someone on this thread has mentioned the Astra Zeneca vaccine had been suspended in some places for causing clots. A simple extrapolation would suggest that our Prime Minister was therefore not born but manufactured in a bizarre Frankensteinian experiment with said vaccine many years ago.
And no...we should not lift lockdown now.

 

The most plausible theory I have ever read on the BBS.

 

I thought it was to flatten the curve. To protect the NHS. Not to get a vaccine. Those ever changing goal posts...

All a lockdown does is isolate infection rates periodically then when the tap gets turned back on they start to rise as people interact. The initial guidance offered by Sage was avoiding lockdown and protecting the at risk members of society to avoid second and third waves. It was a political decision under media pressure and the screaming of
Cummings which lead to lockdown.

Remember the vast majority has been in some form of strict lockdown for most of the last year. Leicester has never been out of lockdown. Its managed to spread just fine in the interim. It peaked prior to the latest lockdown.

Every country that has locked down and reopened barring two have all had second third fourth waves and further lockdowns.

Additionally, there is no published cost benefit analysis of a lockdown its lengths, its affect on the general populations physical and mental wellbeing and the impact on other conditions such as cancer treatment. If the argument is that we are trying to protect as many lives as possible then without covering all bases then its a flawed one as there is more than just one ailment requiring treatment.

They also rose during restrictions. The latest wave also peaked prior to England entering T4.

No just pointing out again that the vast number fatalities with Covid are from a very small demographic in society. A large percentage who are for want of a better term institutionalised. Even a month ago 30% of fatalities with covid related to care home residents.

Perhaps rather than locking everyone up carte blanche we could especially knowing what has been known for months have a more targeted approach to how restrictions were in place.

Technically thats not true. There hasnt been a day since the first of march where "hundreds" of deaths. .

They are falling by about 20% a week.

I suspect by the time this month finishes it'll be a consistent double digit figure. Would that still be too high?

Lockdowns have a finite lifespan.

Its now expiring. People have had enough and making their own choices based on personal risk and responsibility.

 

Technically it is extremely true. Taken from the government covid statistics website:

"Deaths
There were 64 deaths within 28 days of a positive test for coronavirus reported on 15 March 2021.

Between 9 March 2021 and 15 March 2021, there have been 1,014 deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test."

That's an average of 114 a day

 

Just a point, technically that's not hundreds. There would have to be more than two hundred for it to be hundreds in a day. Sorry I know that brings nothing to the debate but I couldn't resist it

 

Just a point- technically that's wrong. 101-999 could be described as hundreds. Couldn't resist

 

It could, but the figure of 114 can't.

 

Yes it can.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hundred

 

Oh bugger, I wish I hadn't started this.

 

Sad news mate, condolences to you and your family.