Where will he end up ??

Oh well... que sera.

 

But he's not like Vardy in how he plays, so wouldn't be a like for like replacement. Agree they need to replace him.

 

While true, not one statistic exists to guess that rocket he hit against Birmingham is possible

 

You'd be an accountants nightmare

 

Maybe not, but statistics would say he's more likely to get in that position than someone else.

 

We have a deal in place to sign him according to Dane for much less than 14 million from what we are told. Surely the best we can hope for is to do similar to Frankfurt when they had Jovic. They loaned him from Benfica with option to buy, he smashed it there and they activated the option to buy in the April and then a few months later in the June they sold him to Madrid for 60 million euros.

It was a similar situation to the Dike one where they had the option to buy but bigger fish were circling given the impact he had during his loan. Our issue of course is that we are not in the top tier (as it stands) unlike Frankfurt who were in the top end of Bundesliga.

 

Would you pay him what he wants as a token gesture to reap in the bigger transfer fee?

 

I was thinking that, a bit risky though say we get promoted and have a terrible start to next season and his value plummets....

 

Not so risky if we fail to get promoted and he moves on straight away. That way we've made a quick buck.

 

Knowing our selling history, I wouldn't put it past the club to buy him for the agreed fee then sell for less.

 

He's a great talent and been amazing for us but he's still a work in progress talent.
We need to buy him at the cost agreed and if a big club wants him for big money sell him immediately. Then stipulate he's loaned back to us for a year, to aid his development. I'm sure a team would relish the chance to do that, we've now got a great reputation for developing young players.

 

Not sure why people are so dismissive of the idea of any of the so called "big 6" signing him. It's the sort of price they could take a punt on, and there's only injury that would prevent them making a profit on him.

If they loaned him out for a year, or even kept him as back up and played him in cup games only, they'd probably still get £20m for him.

He's a goalscorer. He's scored different types of goals, but shows an instinct to be in the right place at the right time. Clubs will value that. His general play is still a bit raw, but he's only 20. If he continues to progress he'll be worth a huge amount.

United signed Dan James, who probably wasn't expecting to move to a top 6 club, they'll also be losing Cavani and probably losing patience in Martial. Tuchel doesn't seem to rate Abraham, and there's a chance Giroud may move on for regular football. Chelsea are also not averse to signing players, loaning them out for years on end and making a profit on them without them ever playing for them. Arsenal and Spurs are always looking for a bargain as well.

 

The problem is the personal terms. Would it be worth sitting down with the player and asking him to sign to do us a favour?

 

Shouldn't really need to, if you go in at the angle that we are exercising our pre agreed option to sign him and explain we will happily sell him to a big club should someone come in which by the looks of it they will in the summer. Then down to his agent etc to find him a big club that will pay him what he wants.

 

How do you think expected goals is worked out? Looking in a teacup?

 

xG isn't facts, it's a prediction. So, yeah, teacup statistics.

 

Not really, no. It's mass data used for comparative analysis.

That can be then used for prediction, and true, that's a bit flimsy because a) it's a young science and b) football is really hard to predict, but to say that it's worthless in and of itself isn't true.

It's like saying there's no point studying weather patterns and then forecasting as all you're doing is predicting things.

 

Do the people who dismiss xG and similar statistical treatments think that our much-vaunted 'spreadsheet' is just a big list of goals and assists?

 

But weather is real science, if thing A hits thing B then C happens. Predicting short to medium term weather patterns is accurate, long range forecasts are still a bit hit and miss though.

xG is totally dependent on humans and humans have good days and bad days. The only way I'd put any stock in xG is if players were replaced by robots.

 

The spreadsheet that "predicted" Schmidt and Thiam would be good?

A prediction can go the way you expect or not, it's a best guess. Some you win, some you lose. It's why I don't gamble seriously.