Release all restrictions, cases drop like a stone

The incubation period isn't an exact science and differs from person to person of course, but I'm pretty sure the vast, vast majority won't test positive within 2 days of catching the virus.

 

The accepted incubation period is 2-14 days for the coronavirus that causes covid 19. It varies from person to person but during the incubation period of any virus you're infected with, it is rapidly multiplying in your body but not yet expressing so you are very unlikely to test positive using the kind of testing we use for Covid 19. More invasive testing might be able to find it.

https://nortonhealthcare.com/news/how-long-after-exposure-to-test-positive-for-covid/

 

Basically yes. The original telegraph article has a deceptive headline but a subheader that clarifies it's a story about the stats being deceptive. Which I kind of thought we all knew anyway and that was why we also have a stat for people with covid in Intensive care.

The dodgy article is the one that's citing the telegraph article as it is definitely trying to suggest people are catching Covid in hospital

 

Oh it is and it's yet another example of misleading data, which you have to actually dig into to find the actual facts. It's been a recurring theme. Obviously somebody that goes to A&E for a broken leg and tests positive for Covid shouldn't be classed as "in hospital with Covid" or rather they shouldn't be classed as in hospital *for* Covid I should say. I think both data sets are important because I'm pretty sure people with Covid are still kept separately so those numbers are still meaningful, but it's all about context.

 

Ironically that Ground News website is supposed to clearly identify political bias to combat misinformation. If true, then in this particular case, by not including the subheading, it actually increased misinformation!

 

What on earth are you on about here?

We didn’t ‘know all this’ 18 months ago.

We know what the numbers are (likely) going to say for the next few weeks now. They will drop. For the reasons I and plenty of others gave.

You are claiming, though, to have been right all along because of that very fact - despite there being nothing tangible to suggest that.

Had we not had any lockdowns whatsoever, we would be in a markedly different place now in terms of numbers of deaths, hospitalisations and cases. Nobody knows nor will ever know how much worse it would have been. You might argue it would have been no worse or even better. Given we didn’t do it we can’t ever settle that argument, but I’d wager the consensus amongst most learned bio-scientists would be that the numbers would have been a lot worse. But we won’t ever know - we didn’t do it.

I’m very conflicted with you TM. You make some reasoned arguments on some posts, I mean I don’t agree with your main conclusions, but you cite sound and robust evidence sources - but then claim some form of bizarre high ground and victory over all of us loons who weren’t against lockdowns at the very beginning - because nearly 18 months and at least three full lockdowns later, case numbers have dropped after things were eased.

It is truly baffling, as you are clearly an intelligent person, so you know full well that what you are quoting doesn’t prove you right whatsoever. Even if the figures reflected a time after the restriction easing - which they don’t - it would have absolutely no relevance in an argument as to whether we should have locked down in March 2020 or at any time since.

We won’t ever know what would have happened had we not locked down last March. You can’t ever really be proved right or wrong. We might as well speculate as to what the country would look like now had we not collectively voted to leave the eu, or if Corbyn had won the last general election.

In the same way as you will never accept lockdown to have been necessary - but won’t ever be able to categorically prove it, I will never accept that brexit was a good idea, or even one that wasn’t chronically idiotic. I can’t say what things would have looked like now had that vote gone the other way though.

I also won’t ever accept a conservative government as being the best thing for the country. But we have working class northern folk lapping them up and electing them in places like Barnsley, Donny, around the north east. Were they wrong? I mean yes, I’d say so - but you can’t ever prove it I guess.

So I suppose what I’m asking is how do you take the figures you’ve seen and conclude that to have made you right 16 months ago?

 

Forget daily test figures for any accurate reflection of the spread of the virus because starting before “freedom day” but certainly after the number of people either deleting the app, not signing into venues they visit to avoid getting the ping and simply not testing /reporting results means they are largely meaningless. I have seen this first hand , people of not scanning in and venues are not enforcing it either pretty much everywhere I have been. So the true spread figure is unknown and the daily figures will naturally come down, unsurprisingly.

The most reliable, unforgiving and unavoidable figures are both hospitalisations and deaths. The trends here are very clear. The fact deaths are not so so much higher is due to the more vulnerable being vaccinated. Infections are highly likely to be rife.

 

Excellent post. Well said.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...tom-study-suggests-cases-on-the-rise-12366866

 

Anyone else thinking Tyketical Disaster-stroke?
Admin, you can have that for nowt. You’re welcome. .