The spreadsheet, stats and data.

I got off after the 2nd goal so my view on him was limited, I think its harsh to judge anyone on last nights showing Harry kane could have come on but with 21% possesion he would struggle. but so far the summer signings have been disappointing and last seasons heros have fast turned to zeros.

 

The problem isn't the spreadsheet the problem is the way the recruitment and retention policy is implemented it's far to stringent there's just not enough flexibility and too much churn when things have gone well and players and or coaches are sold. The policy implementation isn't set up to provide on field success it's set up to try and recruit players who the recruitment team think can be sold later at a profit. The problem is their recruitment pool is shrinking and instead of the quality going up as we were promised when the policy was first sold to the fan base it's gone down. When we have success we are far too eager to cash in our assets and don't generate nearly enough in transfers fees.

 

It definitely doesn’t pick up lack of pace and fear of getting physical contact.

 

The biggest problem is that the spreadsheet works in league one not the championship.

 

I remember raising this question 20 years ago when football became a business.

I’ve had a long career in my own business. Looking back, there was a turning point. Around 1990. Before that, businesses were what most people would expect them to be. Set up and run by people who understood that business.

Then the money men came in. They promised everything. Yet they knew nothing about the businesses they bought. All they wanted was profit. If you failed to deliver, your division or company was shut down. I saw people who’d worked their arses off thrown out, destroyed. If you did deliver their profit targets, your profit targets were raised. Nothing else mattered. The quality of what you did, whether the clients were happy, the future, didn’t matter. If it didn't work then bin it.

In business this is all hidden. In football you can see it. But we - like the players - are assets to be made money out of. Best get used to it.

Sounds cynical? It is. That’s money.

 

The is a myth though.

 

Is it any coincidence that our positive results seem to be on a two or three year cycle?
It seems to me like we buy young cheap players. Have a terrible season because they aren't ready for being first teamers yet but are thrown in. Then the second season they improve as they have gained experience and play much better. Third season if they're still here they're much better. Then we sell them and have a crap season with players not ready and on it goes

 

The current mess is due to the mass exodus in the summer and the slow response and mismanagement of the whole staffing side by the owners.

 

It has certainly come to a sticky stage, for sure. I am told that Brentford operate a spreadsheet system, but that it is slightly different from ours. It seemed to be working a treat during the promotion from division one and then last season as well, but the wheels have at least come loose, if not come off all together. The issue seems to me to have been that we have not adequately scouted the talent which we have bought in, so that the 'plug in and play' possibility (quoting Heckingbottom) has not been there to the same extent. When clubs get this right, you see several new players come in and make a significant impact right away. We spent around the million mark on a number who have not made that impact yet. Of course, the idea is that we purchase an Ollie Watkins, sell him on for over £20 million and then purchase an Ivan Toney to replace him, but that is not what has happened. Kieffer Moore has gone on to star at international level and Jacob Brown is similarly close to making an international bow, but both were sold for relatively small amounts, which did not allow us to purchase anything much more than lower grade replacements who have not made the impact (there are exceptions, such as Morris and Dike). It is of little use just operating spreadsheets if the players aren't also being watched in order to verify that they are ready to step up. The other problem is that most clubs are now operating a system which, if not spreadsheet based, looks as up-coming talent from lower leagues, so the competition from Championship rival clubs is greater and we risk losing out, if other clubs can pay better. Is the Moneyball dream over? I think that the remainder of this season will have a big say in whether that proves to be the case. I would love it to work again and, just maybe, we can bring in some genuinely Championship-ready Swedish talent in the January window in order to scrape our way out of the relegation abyss. The next Swedish Sollbauer would be good. Along with an experienced holding midfielder as well. Oh! And Henrik Larsson's lad up front.

 

Good post and good op too. What it also can't factor in is the influence of the coaching staff and experienced players around a young talent. A youngster doing well in one set up may not do aswell in another. This is why I find the volte face by the owners in playing style so inexplicable. They've spent three years recruiting players who they think can play a certain way, to then ask them to play another way.

 

And just on that point (but going back to footy) it is then our jobs to nurture, develop and enhance their said potential, so they may fit into our style (ok sorry just flog them for under market value!).
This season our recruitment has been an absolute disaster in replacing our saleable assets, sorry players/ coaches and staff.

 

The big problem is we sign too many at once & then it takes ages for them to gel. If you look at Stendel’s first season in the championship & Hecky’s 2nd. We started the season with about two thirds of the teams brand new. That should never happen.

Nearly all successful teams build it over time. There’s very few overnight successes. Even when clubs like City came in to fortunes it took a few years before they started winning trophies because as others have said - ‘the human element’. You look at Blackpool currently & they’re an example of a side that have developed together & haven’t had much player turnover in the summer & are now reaping the rewards of it but if they carry on doing well they’ll find themselves in a similar situation to us when players start getting picked off, probably next season.

This season hasn’t been as crazy on the playing front as there’s only Mowatt & Dike that’s left but Morris & Anderson’s injuries haven’t helped & then there’s the situation where it seems most of the people in important roles with the first team at the club have left. It’s as if no fitness work was done in the summer & then there’s Gomes, Leya Iseka & especially Oulare & Vita who came in late & look well under prepared.

Inexperienced & new players like Palmer, Sibbick, Kitching, Moon, Gomes, Benson, Leya Iseka, Oduor & so on would all do a lot better if their was only a couple of them in the starting 11 (like last season) but when they’re making up half your team it’s where the problem starts.

What I will credit the club with is that they generally sign good players. Even if they don’t come good with us they tend to do well down the line. Whether that’s true or not with the current lot we’ll have to see.

 

Looks like the blunts are stepping onto our turf with developing and selling young players and getting a win on a Saturday afternoon is secondary in importance.

 

Absolutely bang on stairfoot!
All about short term gain...its why i dont trust our suits, mainly because the long term does not exist with them.
We as fans see success as doing well on the pitch first (within our resources)...they look at it the other way round.

 

I agree with stunted the development of Schmidt, ICD and Kane to name just three. Schmidt isn't bad enough to be farmed out to a Danish backwater. He'd have been better staying in Austria and might have been a name by now had he not come here. ICD jumped at the chance to get his career started wanting misters football. He'd have been better dropping down to League 2 and getting a game like Jordan Clark and Luke Perry and building his way back up. He's wasted 2 years thus far here. Then Kane, Miller and Aitchison. We're not actually developing any players.

 

Been saying it for years, if the spreadsheet procedure is so good, why isn't everyone doing it? Stats only tell half the story. Ball could bounce off my arse into the net 30 times a season, doesn't make me a good forward. Crass example, I know, but you see what I mean.

 

Can you play Saturday?