So studies show that Omicron appears to result in a 70% reduction in hospitalisations

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by SuperTyke, Dec 22, 2021.

  1. JamDrop

    JamDrop Well-Known Member

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    I wondered if Loko meant all restrictions, right from the very beginning. It’s too ambiguous to know, I think.
     
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  2. pon

    pontyender Well-Known Member

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    That 3 in 10 can't be ignored. Someone made a very valid point this morning that "The virus can also exacerbate existing health problems and later become the primary reason they remain in hospital". Those patients also have to be cared for differently.
     
  3. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough, suppose Loko will have to let us know.
     
  4. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Still surprised they want to countenance normal New Year festivities. I mean, what do they think will happen?
     
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  5. thetykester

    thetykester Well-Known Member

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    It's a poser, isn't it. :cool:
     
  6. pon

    pontyender Well-Known Member

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    A very cunning poster is our Loko. Always leaves himself wriggle room with an ambiguous comment here and a question mark there.
     
  7. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    There you go again. Super friendly but also super quick to call out others from your pedestal way up high. Not fun to be called out is it?

    As an FYI it was the government that opted to not enforce heavy restrictions so it was them that were, thankfully, being proven right. I find it really interesting that I post about the data being fairly positive for everyone but the bit you pick up on and reply to is something about a crystal ball. I wrongly assumed that the two possible replies would be 1) Point out the data is wrong and offer a different set of figures 2) Reply in agreement that the data is positive and along with myself and probably 99% of others join in with hoping it stays that way.

    I can’t get my head around picking an online ‘fight’ over that message.
     
  8. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    ICU beds and hospitalisations are different data sets. Haven’t seen anything yet on hospitalisations being over 2,000 but I’m not glued to the UK news at the minute. Was 1,200 last I saw but that was Boxing Day so could be up by now.

    I did read that the average ‘stay’ had reduced to just three days which is a major improvement on previous variants, and also that way more people being admitted are testing for Covid once in hospital which makes the data extremely difficult to take a proper read from.
     
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  9. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Swing and a miss on almost every response to my post. Why do you come across so annoyed all the time? Especially when it’s a way more positive story at the moment than if we’d have sat here 12 months ago and said this time next year we’d have over 300,000 cases in a day.

    Nothing ‘cunning’ about my posts by the way. But definitely something not right about how you read them and instantly try and pick holes. Find it all really interesting.
     
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  10. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    So 183,000 infections reported yesterday, anecdotal evidence that NHS staff are having to isolate in considerable numbers, LFT tests have run out. Yet we should party on? That seems to me to be a political decision based on the PM's weakness, not a decision made in the interests of public health (even if only as a precautionary measure).
     
  11. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I actually saw 220,000 cases. Possibly the UK though? Seven day rolling average for deaths associated with a positive Covid test at 74 for the same data set. Admittance from official sources that only 3/10 hospitalisations are for reasons associated with Covid. ICU bed usage flat at worst.

    Is it in the interest of public health overall to lockdown based on those figures? Can’t see it myself yet. Especially with London cases appearing to have peaked too.
     
  12. Austiniho

    Austiniho Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely, my Auntie was in hospital with final stage cancer. She caught Covid in there… recovered from Covid a week or so later. Died from cancer 6 weeks later. And then included in Covid death stats…
     
  13. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    I'm not really talking about lockdowns Loko, because I agree there are one or two signs that seem a little more hopeful. But at this stage I doubt the wisdom of allowing large New Year gatherings to take place. Even non-ICU admissions are taking up hospital beds.
     
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  14. Don

    Donny-Red Well-Known Member

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    Sorry for your loss…
    But if she died from cancer 6 weeks after recovering from Covid she’s not included in the ‘within 28 days of a positive test’ statistics.

    I’m sure everyone is aware of the concept of targets driving perverse behaviour; here’s a situation to ponder.

    Look at this from the perspective of the local health authority. They’re actually held accountable for controlling spread of this virus (despite having very little control). So they’re held to account for rising death rates.

    Do you think they want to inflate the reported figures (as many on here constantly suggest), or does it actually make more sense to assume they’ll do whatever is possible locally to keep both reported cases and death statistics as low as possible?

    I know anecdotally that a local trust was treating covid patients last year after a diagnosis by x ray rather than ‘testing’ because it was faster at the time but conveniently also kept the stats low. And now I’m hearing that patients in ICU might be kept ‘alive’ a couple of extra days in order to get past the 28 days notification rule.

    Now; you can believe what you want to believe about a government that wants to exaggerate the stats to make us all terrified (which is illogical no matter how it’s dressed up).

    But after spending most of my working life in the public sector, I’m more inclined to believe that the stats are under-reporting if someone is being held to account for higher numbers.
     
  15. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    You’re suggesting we lockdown for NYE then?

    All I can think about to form an opinion is a comparison to last year. Hospitals aren’t being overran in the same way despite cases being quite dramatically up. ICU beds not in use like they were. Deaths associated with Covid under 100 vs. close to 1,000. The average stay in hospital reportedly down, symptoms extremely mild on average, and quarantine reduced.

    Add to that what must now be 25 million plus double jabbed and have the booster. If Christmas gatherings haven’t spiked the important numbers, why would a NYE lockdown be needed?
     
  16. Fon

    Fonzie Well-Known Member

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    Edit: ignore.
     
  17. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't have allowed Christmas gatherings either, for what it's worth! But that's not the same as lockdown.

    Meanwhile:

    Hospitals in England asked to look for up to 4,000 emergency Covid beds | NHS | The Guardian
     
  18. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Hopefully we won’t need them but isn’t this something hospitals are asked every December when we regularly see the headlines about bed shortages? Not that it makes it any easier to read mind.

    Interesting though that they drop these two parts of pretty vital information way down the story. Why wouldn’t this be worthy of a story on its own with an equally ‘shocking’ headline? At least the BBC quoted it was 3/10 entering hospital for Covid.

    ‘The announcement came as new data showed there were 10,462 people in hospital in England with Covid as of Wednesday, although it is still unclear how many were admitted with the disease and how many are there for another reason while also testing positive.’

    ‘The number of patients on mechanical ventilation has remained fairly stable in recent weeks and even reduced since November. On Wednesday the number of deaths reported was 57.’
     
  19. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Thought it was a strange one considering the conversation I was having.
     
  20. Dav

    DavidCurriesMullet Well-Known Member

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    Barnsley gets new ICU, equals Barnsley gets a new hospital.
    Totally agree mate, government's of all colours have been loose with figures to make them look good. This lot don't just bend the truth they obliterate it.
    Senior executives in all government departments are bullied into playing along, or are replaced by willing participants (usually politically appointed mates and stooges). Since 2010 how many senior bosses in the Home Office have been paid off to be removed following scandals which arise from decisions made in government?
    That's why we now have a Met which is worse than ever. Why Windrush is still a huge injustice, the list is almost endless. I won't bore you all with a top 40 of illegal acts which have cost the tax payer millions.
     

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