Sixteen games to go and it's now any three from four to go down

I think we have to discount Hull and those above as they have a ten point cushion over Reading, although stranger things have happened. So it's down to us, Peterborough, Derby and Reading.

I don't think we should rely on further sanctions against Reading - if there are any to come they will most likely be next season. We have to play them at home so a three point haul there, plus winning our game in hand over them, should mean we catch them.

I don't think we can rely on Derby being expelled before the end of the season although I suppose, if they were, there would only be two more teams to relegate. It's not going to happen though is it, plus we would lose our three points gained from the victory over them.

Peterborough will just continue floundering, like they always do, and seem to be one of the inevitable three to go. We have to play them at home though so there is another three points for us, leaving us one point behind them.

Ok, ok - clutching at straws I know, and how can a team with three wins from thirty games hope to survive? It's possible though. It's a slim chance but we CAN do it. These two new players have given us an immediate boost and surely the rest will respond around them and rack up a few more wins. As others have said this could be a record low survival target this season. Never mind 50 points - 35 might be enough.

 

If (and it's a very big if) we win our game in hand on Reading and Derby, then I think it's a case of matching Derby's results will see us safe. But I think survival is still very unlikely, and we'll probably follow up last week's win in the same manner as we did the win against Derby.

 

Hull have form - 19/20 they had 39 points from 30 games and finished bottom

 

There have been plenty of examples down the years where teams have fallen a long way from seemingly looking safe, teams looking dead and buried have somehow survived, teams have had enough quality but have failed to muster a challenge and all sorts in between.

It could feasibly be that all the bottom teams suddenly start scrapping and picking up points as mid table teams ease off the effort and top teams get squeaky bums. It could be that 3 of the bottom 4 are abject and just can't save themselves.

There may well be a few twists and turns, but on the first 30 games, the current table accurately places us as the worst performing team in the division to this point.

 

Much prefer to look at a 1 game form table. Much rosier picture.

Until Saturday evening.

 

you can get 11/2 us to stay up at Billy Mountains, easy 110 quid for a 20 bet, for those still keeping the faith

 

WHY did it after be Coventry away after our first win in months ? We can't buy a win there !!!!

 

The fact it’s mid Feb and we have only won 3 games all season and are having this conversation shows what an awful league it has been this year

 

We have the chance of a "double" on Saturday. I think we only have on more chance to achieve that this season.

Our new signings have improved our chances but I do not think that WRDC will be liquidated so my view is that it will be us, Reading and Posh who will occupy the bottom 3 places.

I hope I am wrong as miracles do happen e.g. Griffin Park.

 

Wasn't it Blackpool, maybe 15 years ago, who went from the play off places in Feb, to being relegated last day?
Something similar .......

 

Sticking my neck out time and being positive.
If we get 6 points before the end of Feb then it's play the theme and yes we will stay up.
Get 4 points then it's a big maybe....
Anything less then it's clear the decks and play the lads we definitely keep for next year plus bed more youngsters and give them a free reign to gain experience without any pressure and supporters to support, encourage even though we are pissed off.
Go on everyone laugh but 10 wins is doable if QPR wasn't one of those rouge games.

 

Other teams' results are secondary really. We control are own destiny and it's hard to see how we can win at least 6 or 7 of our remaining games to stand a chance.
I still don't see where the goals will come from. Saturday's winner came from a wonder strike and we created little else apart from shots from distance.

 

We dont score enough to stay up poya needs to grow a pair and show abit more attacking intent in games.

 

We’ve broken plenty of other records this season so it would be quite fitting to finally get a win at Coventry.

If we can get another win in the next two or three games then we may stand a chance of putting up a bit of a fight. The team really need to take that bit of confidence from Saturday and believe they can do it. We still have to play Peterborough, Derby, and Reading and those games could really be the difference.

Given how bad we’ve been this season, and the fact that I’ve already accepted relegation, I’d actually be happy if we finished 23rd. For a long time it’s looked like we’d be cut adrift but a couple of wins can really change that.

 

When is the penny going to drop ? we have won 1 game for every 10 played we are not suddenly going to start winning 1 in 2 which is now required , its not a case of any 3 from four its more a case of which 2 out of 3 will be joining us in division 1 next season , incidentally I take no pleasure in my thoughts , I really hope the championship fairy takes pity on us & we perform the miracle but I stopped believing in fairy stories many years ago .

 

Here are the actual points per game to date and finishing points based on the continuation of current form.

Reading 0.94ppg (43-6) = 37
Peterborough 0.7ppg = 32
Derby 1.26 ppg (58-21) = 37
Barnsley 0.57 ppg = 26

The mythical 50 points is way above the likely reaches of any of these teams. More likely it will be around 40 points. After the success at the weekend hope seems to be back that Great Escape three is on the cards. If the last 16 games of Flitcroft (24 points) or Struber (25 points) are repeated that would probably be sufficient putting us over 40 points.

The question is though, after three wins in 30 games are we going to get 8 in 16? I doubt it but we live in hope.

 

It's nothing to do with pennies dropping. It's just clinging on to a bit of hope that we can do it yet again, ie the impossible. We seem to be patenting that particular quality, whether it be escaping relegation when we had been written off, or getting promotion from a bottom of the table starting point.

I admit there is no logical reason to suggest that we WILL do it again. All I am saying is that we CAN do it again. Whether we deserve it after a shocker of a season is another matter. I'm not sure I want it either, if it just leads to another season of abject misery

 

This with bells on.****. I'm just still hoping we can beat Rotherhams record of 23.. b4 May.

 

I agree with @Prince of Risborough. It's possible we're in a 4 team mini league. Forget the mythical 50 points. We need to win our "6 pointers". (Theoretically we could stay up with just three more wins!) That won't happen. I still think we have a chance.

 

Survival is highly unlikely, but not impossible. Time will tell if last week was the start in an uptick in form, or just an exception, based on complacency of the opponent.

I'd say we'll probably be relegated with 20 odd points, but if the new signings can continue to impress, Vita carries on playing well at LWB, and Williams can hold down a place in the back 3, we might have finally landed on a formation that works for us (though, I still have no idea why we hadn't been playing 352 ever since the Blackpool game when it was obvious we were being overrun) and the players have an idea of what they're doing. If all that comes to fruition, 5 or 6 wins and a few draws is possible, and the league is so bad that could be enough.

Lots of ifs in that lot though.