O/T: Ponte today and York this week

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by orsenkaht, Aug 14, 2022.

  1. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    11,240
    Likes Received:
    10,618
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Apologies to Shed131 - I could find no inspiration whatsoever for the Donny card yesterday. In fact to say that they raced there, at Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon I could see virtually no appealing bets at any of the meetings, save a small unsuccessful dabble on the big sprint handicap at Ripon.

    Ponte today, and I do have some views on that card, with all the usual caveats.

    1.50 Cinque Verde is a short price for a filly making it's debut, although she does have a (G1) Cheveley Park entry. But Jamie Bond will come on considerably for his Thirsk debut (6th/13) and has reportedly been working well. He is available at 13/2, which is probably partially attributable to the fact that this is not known as a betting stable. The trainer is a Barnsley lad.

    2.25 Glory And Honour is on a hattrick, and I am surprised to find that is not favourite. He is generally 15/8 (2/1 with Skynobet if you can get on with them).

    3.00 Gale Force Maya is an admirable mare, but I am surprised to find her favourite over Chil Chil, who has some solid Group 1 form to her name. Chil Chil is dropped in class here, but is G1 entered (Haydock Sprint Cup). 9/4 is a very fair price for Chil Chil in what looks to be a two-horse race.

    Over to York, and I will probably be wide of the mark here, as I so often am at this track, where the racing is very competitive.

    Lampang of Tim Easterby's catches my eye in the Symphony Group Handicap (1.50 Weds). Twice a winner this season, he got lost in the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood but ran a good third on Shergar Cup Day at Ascot last time. 20/1 here, and he could be building up for a tilt at the Ayr Gold Cup.

    Great Voltigeur Stakes (3.00 Weds): Luxembourg and Point Lonsdale look unlikely to run here. Secret State (Godolphin) has been put in as 7/4 favourite, but it's worth noting that the race he won at Goodwood last time was only a handicap, and he veered left alarmingly in the closing stages. It's speculative here, but Aikhal may be Aiden O'Brien's main or only runner. Steadily progressive, he is entered in the St Leger and actually has a higher BHA rating than Secret State (although Timeform make the Godolphin horse one pound better). Aikhal is speculative, but is generally 10/1.

    Fillies Handicap (5F) (4.45 Weds): Pink Crystal is almost certainly value for way more than her winning margin at Brighton last time, and possesses a sharp turn of foot. No prices as yet, but I make her of great interest here.

    On Thursday, Meditate (1.50 Thurs) is rated only a pound behind likely red hot favourite Dramatised. Karl Burke's filly has been impressive, but both her wins have come over 5F, whereas Meditate has twice won over 6F. Both fillies have Group1 entries, but whereas Dramatised is a best-priced 6/4 you can have 11/2 about Meditate with Bet365.

    Alpinista looks to have been very skilfully placed by Sir Mark Prescott in the Yorkshire Oaks (3.35 Thurs). She is still available at 2/1. She is joint second-favourite for the Arc in most lists, so she will need to be winning this.

    Nunthorpe Stakes (Fri 3.35): Royal Aclaim is put in as 6/4 favourite here. She has been impressive in her three wins so far, but the times were not stunning, and her last win was only in Listed class, whereas she jumps up to Group 1 company here. Highfield Princess would be a danger to all if taking up her chance, but she looks more likely to go to The Curragh for the Flying Five, before tackling the Haydock Sprint Cup and the Breeders' Cup Sprint. (She is 12/1 for those wanting to cover the chance that she turns up on Friday). But having looked at those two, you get down to Khaadem and Raasel, who fought out the finish of the Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes at Good wood recently. I can't see why they won't be involved over this quick five furlongs and you can have 12/1 on each.

    Obviously these are not yet the final declarations, but thanks to anyone who has put up with my ramblings so far!
     
  2. Con

    Connor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2013
    Messages:
    6,103
    Likes Received:
    3,881
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Good write up and info . Appreciate the tips win or lose
     
    Stephen Dawson and Redhelen like this.
  3. tingleytyke

    tingleytyke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2011
    Messages:
    3,650
    Likes Received:
    926
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Used to be Shift Engineer
    Location:
    Tingley
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    I'm at pontefract today,granddaughter wanted ice cream. The little coffee/ice cream trailer, "small cone please" 7 pound summat I didn't hear the summat as I was shocked at the 7 and turning to walk away knowing the little one would only play with it.
     
    Stephen Dawson likes this.
  4. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    11,240
    Likes Received:
    10,618
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Update: The three Pontefract selections ran with various degrees of ineptitude yesterday. That's what Ponte can do to you!

    Lampang has not been declared for York on Wednesday. As forecast however, Aikhal is Aidan O'Brien's sole runnier in the Great Voltigeur. He is best-priced 7/2, so the 10's available yesterday morning looks tasty now. Pink Crystal has been put up at 5/1 with Bet365 and Skynobet. She is only 4's with Paddy and 10/3 with Hill's.
     
    Redhelen likes this.
  5. Red

    Red-Taff. Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2011
    Messages:
    5,057
    Likes Received:
    3,167
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    reminds me of the time we took our three to the Sheffield Crucible - at the interval asked for three ice creams - £5 - EACH ! I thought it was a fiver for the three - they didn't get any ice cream - and they've never forgotten!
    (They still mention this incident periodically.)
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2022
    Redhelen and tingleytyke like this.
  6. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2018
    Messages:
    31,129
    Likes Received:
    27,234
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    There's a match in the 4:50 at Windsor. Both horses have finished 2nd twice and there doesn't look much between them on form. Yet the Godolphin runner is odds on and the Haggas runner is 4-1.

    Is the Haggas runner worth a bet?
     
  7. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    11,240
    Likes Received:
    10,618
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    They go 2/11 the Godolphin gelding and 9/2 the Haggas filly. That equates to about an 85% chance of winning for the favourite and about an 18% chance of the filly winning.*

    Timeform have the favourite 10 lbs clear and with scope for further improvement, so I'd say the odds are probably a fair reflection of their respective chances. I wouldn't personally feel the Haggas filly was worth a bet unless you fancy the chances of the other horse falling over.

    *Yes folks - that equals 103%! The 3% represents the bookie's theoretical profit margin if he bets at those prices and is able to balance his book.
     
  8. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2018
    Messages:
    31,129
    Likes Received:
    27,234
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Just had £2 quid on the Haggas filly at 4/1. (Only because I'd backed it both previous runs).
     
    dodgey defence and Redhelen like this.
  9. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    11,240
    Likes Received:
    10,618
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Well done Mr Dawson! Smell those smouldering form books!
     
    Stephen Dawson and Redhelen like this.
  10. red

    red24/7 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2015
    Messages:
    6,763
    Likes Received:
    6,799
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    No one should back horses the games bent when 1/8 beaten in 2 horse race
     
    Stephen Dawson likes this.
  11. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    11,240
    Likes Received:
    10,618
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    So, listen mate, I'm not sure how serious or flippant your comment is. But Sheikh Mohammed (net worth $4Bn), Charlie Appleby (Champion Trainer, two-time Deby winner) and William Buick (Champion Jockey elect) conspire to throw a poxy £4,000 two-horse race at Windsor on a Monday night? Is it really likely, laddie?

    Let's try that there were two unexposed horses, one of whom raced too keenly and the other of which was ridden cannily, tracking the pacemeker and was able to prevail through superior tactics and better temperament!
     
    Stephen Dawson likes this.
  12. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2018
    Messages:
    31,129
    Likes Received:
    27,234
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Cheers. I backed the Hannon 2 year old too at 14/1.
     
  13. red

    red24/7 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2015
    Messages:
    6,763
    Likes Received:
    6,799
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Tell that to bloke that had 8 thousand to win one ,no way 1/8 lose unless it’s iffy
     
  14. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2018
    Messages:
    31,129
    Likes Received:
    27,234
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    It looked to have lost to a decent Haggas improver to me.
     
  15. red

    red24/7 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2015
    Messages:
    6,763
    Likes Received:
    6,799
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Haggis horse beaten 15 lengths in previous race ,that’s what winds me up SD how are they allowed to find such improvement,they should be saying what happened last time Mr Haggis

    glad you won a few quid though ,but the games frustrating how trainers get away with running horses,
     
    Stephen Dawson likes this.
  16. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2018
    Messages:
    31,129
    Likes Received:
    27,234
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    I get where you're coming from. Have you had the Godolphin horse in a multiple mate?
     
  17. red

    red24/7 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2015
    Messages:
    6,763
    Likes Received:
    6,799
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    No,no bet today ,got a horse for you next time though mill town lily ,Micky hammond
     
    Stephen Dawson likes this.
  18. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    11,240
    Likes Received:
    10,618
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    As JP McManus once said "Sure, if you had the eight thousand what would you want with the one thousand?"
     
    Stephen Dawson and red24/7 like this.
  19. red

    red24/7 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2015
    Messages:
    6,763
    Likes Received:
    6,799
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Yes,very true unless someone was going to break your legs if you didn’t pay them 9 grand by Monday night and you only had 8 grand

    Wonder if you bet long odds on over a season you would be infront?,what you reckon Mr Khat,

    I like 5/2 or 11/4 against myself ,don’t bet odds on
     
    Stephen Dawson likes this.
  20. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    11,240
    Likes Received:
    10,618
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Now we're talking, Mr red24/7!

    The answer with long odds-on bets, as with any other price range you could choose, is that the win strike rate of your selections (expressed as a percentage) must exceed the average price returned by your winners (again expressed as a percentage) if you are to make a profit across any given period.

    So if the average price of your winners is Evens (1/1) that implies a 50% chance. Fairly obviously, to make a profit you would be looking for 51% or more of your selections to win.

    If your average winner price is 2/1, then your strike rate needs to be in excess of 33%.

    A strike rate of 1 in 3 is easier to achieve than better than 1 in 2. For that reason, I tend to work around a notional average winner price of 2/1. That doesn't mean that I won't back horses at considerably shorter or considerably longer prices from time to time, but I can tell you that the average price of all the winners I have backed across the last ten years comes out at 9/4. So I don't think we are too far apart with your target range of 5/2 or 11/4!

    What you do need, playing in that price range, is the mental discipline to cope with the fact that you will be wrong two-thirds of the time, but you can if you hold your nerve still make a profit. That of course is provided that you are sufficiently skilled to be able to select the horses to achieve your target strike rate!
     
    Stephen Dawson likes this.

Share This Page