Back over in Ukraine...

I'm pleased about this, but there will be a massive loss of life on all sides.

I genuinely think this war will come down to economics & diplomacy, not rockets & guns. In modern history I can't think of a time when a war has been won that way.

I'm not saying I'm not behind supporting Ukraine BTW.

 

There is no win. Either Russia win the war or sadly the more Russia are on the ropes the less Putin has to lose and the more dangerous he becomes as he will probably use nuclear weapons and possibly try and bomb other countries with his missiles.

 

Saw the video Ukraine put out showing all the vehicles abandoned and saying Russia are fast becoming one of Ukraines biggest arms suppliers.

 

it will come down to that but for a peace deal to happen it needs to suit both sides, either because of one of them is overpowering the other or it has reached stalemate a going further makes no sense. All sides also need to save face - especially Russia.

It looks like Russia is pulling back to focus on the takeover of the Donbas which they set out as the goal from the start. If that happens it might be the beginning of the end but it’d need Ukraine to accept losing territory. If they’re making ground then it’s not in their interest to stop!

 

Russia's problem now is that they're losing places in days that it took them months to win....they're bunking out and leaving huge amounts of equipment behind that can't be replaced except by rail...independent sources were saying yesterday that Ukraine were on the brink of taking a super significant rail junction that is key to the whole network, if they take that it will be a long winter for the Russian troops still in place.

 

He won't, it isn't in his best interests yet. It will just make Russia an out and out target. The only way he would do that is if China went to war alongside them. As of right now, that isn't happening, China is sitting back and seeing how the world watches Putin, in anticipation of their soon-to-be attack on Taiwan. The only help Russia gets right now from China is money, money for weapons & resources obviously but they won't side with him on an actual war setting

 

The key areas of Lyman and Izium were taken yesterday, war is rarely just about arms, logistics play a huge part. The Russians are on the brink of total collapse now.

 

Ill disciplined, poorly trained, lacking motivation, a vast amount of kit from the cold War era, poor tactics, shocking resuply, what they have is numbers, but Ukraine atm as got modern weaponry and are being trained over here both in army and Naval tactics, I just don't think Putin would back down, I do think the longer it goes on the bigger chance he as of being taken out by is own

 

Winters in war time are far more tolerable when you're defending your homeland, not invading someone else's. The Russians should know that better than anyone.
They will ultimately defeat themselves, but Putin remains a very loose cannon & not in the soundest of minds, I suspect.

 

I think if things carry on going as rapidly downhill as is being reported over here, this is a very likely scenario. Usage of nuclear weapons would be the end of Russia. There are enough sane people in the government still to prevent such a scenario from happening. I'm pretty sure that plans must already be underway to send him quietly off to the sanitarium for the rest of his life, in exchange for him not being extradited to face the international courts. If he resists, my money is on him being taken out forcibly in one way or another. We have several bottles of champagne on ice.

 

Not what Stoltenberg says...he may be erring on the side of caution perhaps....Ukraine deceived the Russians into thinking Kherson was the main target of the offensive, then made ( what we now know) were feint attacks that were repulsed with allegedly massive losses ( according to Putin's fanboys on social media )...Russia shipped in thousands of troops from the East into Kherson province to defend against the offensive, Ukraine blew all the bridges behind them tp prevent them leaving and then attacked the areas they had just left...quite brilliantly executed based on a plan by the US staff, similar to what they put together for the Croats to defeat Serbia in the 1990's....it still leaves a lot to be decided though.

 

My lad is based at catterick and they are training Ukrainian people to fight in the war . Builders, bakers and bus drivers and many more types of normal civilians. Huge respect for these people who are prepared to lose their life for their country . I look at the people in these boats crossing channel and think they should be doing the same

 

Great post, bin watching this with interest, hope it ends soon.

 

What's the feeling on the street towards Putin, John?
Talking about St. Petersburg, not Skeggy..

 

Amongst my friends and colleagues - utter horror at what's going on. But they are young and young-ish educated, middle class people, who speak English, use VPN's and get their news from independent sources. They're not representative of Russia as a whole. Though the Kremlin's claims that 80% of the population are in favour of the war is also likely to be a wild exaggeration. Opinion polling on the subject, even by excellent independent pollsters such as Levada, is likely to be extremely inaccurate for a variety of reasons.

 

He's already testing becoming more dangerous now he has done a blackout to millions. It's just the start.

 

Why? Have we invited them to be trained here and offered them millions of £s worth of weapons too?

If we have, then it’s shocking that they’re choosing not to fight.

But if we haven’t - then it’s not a valid comparison is it?

 

Yes have you not seen Afghanistan now. They threw their arms down straight away. Same thing happened in Iraq and Libya