Back over in Ukraine...

My wife's family on both sides also originated from the Kursk region, albeit several generations back.

As for the Z symbols in Georgia, I'm really surprised by this, as the Georgians are quite suspicious of even opposition-minded Russians. Open displays of support for the war would really not be taken kindly to. Even inside Russia, they're as rare as hens' teeth in St Petersburg as a lot of people displaying them woke up with their car window missing. I saw a few on the open road once out of the big city, but enough to count on one hand over the course of a couple of months.

As you have probably seen on the news, there is already a lot of active resistance to the draft inside Russia. Protests despite the draconian laws in place, arson attacks on military conscription offices, and people running away. Although leaving the country may look like the path of least resistance, it still severely weakens Putin and should be encouraged. It shows that his "80% support for the war" lie to be the fairy tale that it is, and it will cause yet more damage to the already fragile economy. Also, do not underestimate how traumatic it is just to up and leave your homeland, often having quit your job, no functioning bank account due to Russian Visas and MasterCards not working abroad, and no clear idea as to when you'll ever return home.

My wife is still struggling hugely, as she has a pregnant sister and ageing parents back in St Petersburg, and she doesn't know when she'll see them again. This is made even more complicated by potential travel bans. And this is someone who has come to a country where she speaks the language, has a support network and plenty of friends around her, a functioning bank account and the right to work. Imagine what it's like for the people who upped and left who have none of those things. There are also feelings of guilt that every person I know is going through, soul searching about what more could have been done. My wife stopped attending opposition events once we were married as it could have caused immense problems for me if she'd been caught, but previous to that she was also quite active in the anti-Putin movement. There is also my daughter, who doesn't want to tell any of her new school friends that she's half Russian for fear of being discriminated against. Why should an 11 year old have to suffer thanks to the actions of someone who neither she nor any of her family ever voted for or supported?

Please understand that I am in no way diminishing what the Ukrainian people are going through, but Russians are also suffering hugely under Putin. I just think that expecting an immediate uprising in one of the most repressive countries in the world is extremely wishful thinking.

Edit - something I forgot to mention which is very important, is that some young men who have been detained by the police at protests against mobilization were immediately handed their call-up papers and forcibly conscripted. What would you do?

 

https://storage.googleapis.com/isto...popkornom-teper-popkorn-konchilsya/index.html

For anyone wanting the perspectives of how regular Russian people are being affected by recent events, I'd suggest running this through Google translate.

 

Very informative & upsetting post to read. My thoughts are with all your extended family.

 

And be can say that NATO weapons are attacking their territory. The bloke is completely unhinged.

 

He’ll isolate Russia, if he annexes even china agrees it Ukrainians . India will no doubt re visit their agreement as will numerous country’s . Iran may have to ditch him if they want to re visit their sanctions as they seem to be .
He’ll have countries like N K and that’ll be it .and once china has to observe UN sanctions the tide will turn on him imo.

 

Things seem to be going bad very quickly for Putin....an interesting graphic showing where the soldiers who have suffered the worst casualties have been drawn from...( this was pre partial mobilisation) Buratiya, Ossetia and Dagestan have born the brunt.
There are plenty of video's now on social media from these areas showing open dissent and obstruction in attempts to impose the mobilisation...according to one report Dagestan have said they will not allow more recruiting there as has Chechnya ( although the Chechens have been prominent in the war, their casualties don't seem to be as high as elsewhere). Khazakstan have reported 98k Russians have crossed the border, if this is repeated in other places Putin's mobilisation will be wrecked.

 

Correct. Lose China and Putin is toast (if he isn't already). Kazakhstan has already turned. That's a lot more significant than people may imagine, a traditional ally and one with questionable democratic credentials at that is pursuing independent own foreign policy.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022...ty-of-russians-fleeing-draft-president-a78902

 

Thanks Mark. We're all staying positive for now, but it's tough.

 

I can only see this ending one way- badly, unfortunately. Really feel for all families affected by this whether Russian, Ukrainian or further afield.

 

He'll use chemical weapons first and see what response he gets. China might stop him using nukes; if the west is at war, who they going to sell stuff to?

 

Oh I love Hanoi Rocks. I was a baby when they were big, but I saw them a few times when they reformed for the first time in the early 2000's.

Are you talking about Sami Yaffa? The man is a bit of a legend in here, and seems like a really nice fellow. I'm surprised that someone in here has heard of or remembers Hanoi Rocks, but how's it even possible that you know Sami Yaffa?!

 

I think Putin will opt for peace talks.

The referendums will prove just about everyone there wanted to be part of Russia (I’m going for the usual 95%). He’s saved the people there from Nazis and Russia’s got new territory. Mission accomplished, so he’ll want to bring the special military operation to an end.

But who could stand in the way of peace talks? Why those pesky Ukrainians. In fact he’ll point out that they are prepared to invade Russia! Outrageous! A clear act of aggression!

Putin the peacemaker will turn to the West for help in trying to persuade the Ukrainians to accept his terms. Making it clear that if the Ukrainians continue their blatant aggression and invade Russia, he’ll have no choice but defend the country using all available means.

I suspect the West will put pressure on the Ukrainians will to give up their territory in order to bring the war to an end. For the time being at least.

 

I also envisaged a similar scenario to this possibly playing out.

 

I think if there was a free vote then the Russian speaking areas of those regions would vote to join Russia anyway, depopulation and vote rigging make the vote being done invalid of course, but it doesn't get away from the fact that a large portion of ethnic Russians don't want to be Ukraine and didn't for a long time. I think its going to take some intricate negotiations, maybe by the Saudi's? to get an agreement, the truth is this war isn't going to be "won" by the armies, but will effect the negotiating positions, its hard to take sentiment out of it, but we only have to look at Northern Ireland to see its not always clear cut who want to be part of what country and why. Tempting though it is to say, just try and take all the nominal Ukrainian territory back, thats not going to fix it.

 

Can’t see NATO countries agreeing to the present land grab and pressuring them into talks ,
Maybe letting go of Crimea altogether and setting up a small area of independent Donbas at a push but the present land grab is or should be unacceptable .
I think the referendum will turn the tide personally with Eu,US,NATO and countries like India and the former Soviet republics that are afraid a precedent would be set for their sovereignty, I think the heat will be turned up on Putin and won’t be able to withstand the heat in his own country when these severe sanctions bite ,
I agree with some correspondents that their are people I’m the Kremlin waiting for the right moment .

 

I know Sami through bands. Lovely fella, has just written a memoir type book.