In 1999/00. Barnsley made the Play-Offs comfortably and lost in the Final v Ipswich. In 2005/6. Barnsley scraped into the Play-Offs on the final day away at Walsall and had no time to think about it and beat Huddersfield in the Semi. Then Swansea City in the Final and were promoted. In 2015/16 Barnsley made the Play-Offs on the final day thrashing the egg chasing boo mers away. They despatched Millwall in the Final as they had momentum and were promoted. In 2020/21. They made the Play-Offs with something to spare and were easily old manned by Swansea City. This season. Make the Play-Offs at a canter... For me there's a pattern emerging. Is it better to make the Play-Offs on a wave of euphoria or settle for them?
Largely the team finishing 3rd rarely wins through. TBH we have overachieved this season. Normally with our points total we would be gunning for automatic promotion, but it is a top heavy division. One in four chance really, as there will be 4 good teams and some variable refereeing decisions. C'est La Vie...
This is a myth. I saw a statistical analysis of the Championship playoffs, the team that finishes 3rd wins most often, followed by 6th, then 4th, then 5th. The gaps between the results for 4th 5th and 6th were potentially not statistically significant but 3rd won the playoffs a significantly higher number of times than the other teams.
In my opinion, nowt like 2000. You've written like we comfortably made playoffs that season. We did finish 4th but should have gone up automatically. So playoffs was a bit of a disappointment. This time we've largely done better than anyone (being truthful) would have expected. Out of the current top 3, the team finishing 3rd will be the most disappointed especially if positions change around like they did last night.
wheras if we manage to nick 3rd we will be on a high and Wednesday in 4th will be in turmoil Going back to the OP we were somewhat fortunate in 2005/6. having lost the home leg to come back and win the semi, then scrape through the final on Pens As for 2015/16 we had been by far the best side in the league for the second half of the season - it would have been a shock if we hadnt won the playoffs 1999/00 we could have done it - a couple of key moments went against us but thats the lottery of the playoffs As for under Val - I think we just ran out of steam- only time (so far) we havent made the final I think we have as good a chance as anyone this time but I dont think its easy to predict. Bolton are the side I would most like to avoid
This just proves that I have a life and have been walking dogs for 7 miles, then drinking some strong ale in a beer garden and am considering damned lies and statistics.
It’s actually the complete opposite. Statistically the team finishing 3rd have been promoted the most. The idea that those finishing 6th somehow have the momentum - that’s the myth.
I'm glad your statistical ananlysis is greater than mine. Will be 4 teams in the playoffs. We will be one of them. I'm happy with that.
It's a lottery like you say JP. I was trying to figure out the odds the other day. Isn't it one in three though? There are only two other teams we can play. One in the semi snd one i the final. I'm still not sure that's right either though cos my maths is woeful beyond sdding up and taking away.
If winning the play-offs is entirely random, rather than won through skill, then, once the teams in the play-offs are decided, the probability of winning is 1 in 4. Imagine, instead of playing football games to decide the winner, you simply write the name of each club on a bit of paper, put those in a bag and draw out the winner. There are four teams in there, you draw one out. 1 in 4. You could do it in two stages, drawing out 2 teams to replicate the semis, then repeating the process to replicate the final, but it's still 1 in 4.
The team finishing in the top play off place have, historically had a 40% chance of getting promoted. The other three slots are around 20% with the team in second place marginally above and the other two marginally below.
The two Championship play off campaigns saw us lose to teams that had done the double over us in the League. I think worst case scenario this year is we play Bolton, who we've not been able to beat in the league this season.