Much has been said about the difference between our home and away form, but that just seems to have been a quirk of the fixture list, in that we have played 4 decent teams at home and none away yet. When you look at the league table and how we have fared against all the teams we’ve played, a different pattern emerges that is a little worrying, if we are wanting to make a success of this season. We haven’t yet beaten anyone in the top 11 and we haven’t yet lost to anyone in the bottom 13. We haven’t turned any of the games against the top teams into draws, whereas 3 of the teams from the bottom half have claimed draws against us. By this pattern, in November it suggests we will lose at Derby, beat Carlisle and then I guess the games against Lincoln and Wycombe will show us where the cut off is. Yes, I know that’s simplifying it a bit, but you get my point, we need to start beating the teams from the top half. 1: Portsmouth - Lost 2: Oxford - Lost 3: Bolton - 4: Peterborough - Lost 6: Stevenage - 7: Derby - 8: Blackpool - Lost 9: Lincoln - 10: Wycombe - 11: Charlton - 12: Cambridge - Won 13: Burton - Won 14: Leyton Orient - Drew 15: Bristol Rovers - Drew 16: Port Vale - Won 17: Exeter - Won 18: Shrewsbury - Won 19: Wigan - Won 20: Northampton - Won 21: Carlisle - 22: Fleetwood - Drew 23: Cheltenham - Won 24: Reading -
I’m more worried about not winning after going behind. It’s ridiculous how long it’s been going on, and is some handicap to carry through a season. I think we’ll probably lose at Derby, but not because they’re in the top half. More because we rarely turn up at PP. I don’t think we’ve properly got going yet, and others will have poor form, injuries and suspensions to slow them down. if you look at Oxford, they’ve lost against Cambridge & Wigan. We scored 6 goals against those, so I don’t think it matters who you take the points off, they all add up the same, and the current top half could be quite different in the space of a few months. I think we’ve done really well away from home .I’ve seen every one barring Bristol Rovers and there are no easy games, regardless of league standings. We’ve had to fight for what we’ve got, and have Roberts to thank for his part in some of those wins.
Just read that they haven’t conceded a goal at home since 16th September. Think ‘turning up’ won’t be enough, we’ll need to be on the top of our game to get something out of this one.
Yes, I thought when we went behind early against Fleetwood it might be a good thing, as it was a great chance to break the hoodoo. If we sneak into the play-offs only beating the teams lower down the table it won’t bode well for the 2/3 games we’ll then need to play. Nor would it build confidence should we go up.
Until we can turn losing positions into wins I can’t see us ever getting near promotion. Unless we start going ahead in most games like we went on that run this time last year.
Can’t be many teams in the entire league who’ve gone as many games as we have without winning from a losing position. I’d like to see the stats if some magician can bring them up….
Very similar to how we were at the start of last season. From memory, barring a win at Hillsborough and a defeat at Morecambe, we were regularly beating teams in the bottom half and losing to most of the top half, albeit largely away from home.
The variant in this equation is that with the exception of Portsmouth the 3 teams in 2nd, 3rd and 4th have all lost 3 games, weve lost 4 and Derby below us have lost 5..so although our mixed form is a worry were pretty much still in a decent position with two quality players to come in..Am still sticking with my prediction of automatic...
I still think with players to come back,going into the January window where players will come in and out. We have not seen our strongest team yet. If we can be around the top 6 in January ,I'm optimistic about automatic or play offs at the worst.
Tbf, we were exactly the same for all of last season and still managed 86 points, so it’s doable, but I’d sooner we kicked the habit.
This. We’re really no different to last season in terms of form. Easy to look at last season for the points we amassed, but we didn’t come flying out of the blocks and went into the playoffs on the back of a poor run of results. Had we beaten Fleetwood we would have gone second and put pressure on Oxfords game in hand, so ‘not winning’ doesn’t only apply when we play the top half teams. All we need to do is stay in touch, the top teams have to play each other - can’t both win.
We've got 27 from 15 - or 1.8 pts/game. Over a full season, that gives us 82-83. Or, from the first 11 games (1/4 season), we got 19 points - which is 76+ for the season - there are 46 games in total, so 2 bonus games. So far in the 2nd quarter, we've got 8 points (4 games). If we can get another 16 points in the next 8 games we are on target to finish on 86. Can we win 5 of the next 8? We aren't far off either way - but no team with 83 points has failed to be in at least the play-offs since 2000.
Our current points rate is pushing towards the magic 2 per game, so we’re not far off. After 15 games last season we had won less and lost more than we currently have. W6 D3 L6 - 21 points versus W8 D3 L4 - 27 points Also best goal difference in league one.
You worry too much mate By this time last season we had lost 6 already and were 6 points worse off. Wouldn’t worry about scraping into the playoffs or what happens if we get promoted. Loads of points to play for and plenty of twists between now and May
Last season the last two games in October were pivotal - the dire performance at Morecambe and then being beaten at home by Lincoln marked a watershed moment and from November we won 6 and drew just 1 of our 7 league games up to the turn of the year. Therefore I'd say this next run of 7 games including 5 against top 11 clubs (we have 0 points from games against current top 11 clubs!) is vital. Interestingly, after 15 games this season Portsmouth (35) and Oxford (32) are almost identical to Plymouth (35) and Ipswich (33) after 15 last season.
