Just for Farnham Red :)

The attached shows historically up to the end of last season how we fare against current L1 teams with an expected value and how we have actually performed so far-we are just over 4 pts better than expected so far

 

I can't make head nor tail of that.

 

It's not THAT hard the expected value calculated from 3pts for a win 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss.
so eg Burton at home W 2 D 2 L 1 so 8 pts from 5 games average 1.60 expected over a period of time.
We won ie 3 pts so 1.40 better than expected
is that better??

 

Is it historical?

 

It's interesting from a trivia perspective, but it doesn't provide any particular insight as to our progress (or otherwise) this season. Collating the results of 50+ seasons in the same division as Port Vale, for example, doesn't provide any indication of our relative strengths this year.

Additionally, the expected overall points total for the season of 63.27 falls well short of what we'd hope to achieve after last season, even allowing for the Stevenage anomaly of zero xPts and the fact that we'd expect some sort of drop-off from the squad being inevitably weakened over the summer.

Interesting in isolation, but no indicator either way of progress.

 

absolutely correct

 

yep

 

paul.d, it's great to have you back !

 

Welcome back mate, you're going to make my match day previews a lot easier

 

I've not been right through the list above but there are two omissions at the top.

This season's Blackpool and Bristol Rovers fixtures are not included. Any more?

 

I have deliberately not updated with this seasons results as it distorts things!! I will update at the end of the season in preparation for next year -UNLESS we get promoted in which case I'll need to start all over again

 

Aah, I did wonder if that was your reasoning, and I didn't read the opening statement properly

 

No but it is hysterical

 

I think it would be more accurate to take the last 4 games against each team - home and away, to make it more relevant. Including results from 50 years ago is not a good predictor of this season.

 

Thirded.

 

Quartered.

 

The surprise for me is how many of the teams in the league are relatively uncommon opponents for us historically. 8 teams have 10 or fewer seasons with us in the same division as them and half of the league is covered by taking 16 seasons or less.

I'm not sure I'd have picked Port Vale out as the team we've spent most seasons in the same division with from that list. I'd probably have guessed at Bolton, Blackpool or Portsmouth.

Zero home wins vs Wigan doesn't read well. Hopefully we can address that when the fixture comes around this season, given that it seems to be their #1 grudge match, if the twitter 'banter' is anything to go by.