Score predictions - Horsham replay

1-0 not sure who to though.

 

Horsham 176-1 Barnsley

 

3-0 to us. We'll be cautious after last week, but for a much lower ranked team to beat a higher tier side, a lot of things have to come together on the night.

They usually include a combination of the following:
- the higher team underestimating the opposition
- the higher team putting in a seriously below par display
- the lower team playing out of their skins
- the lower team's keeper having the game of his life
- the higher team missing a shedload of chances they'd put away 9 times out of 10
- the lower team riding their luck on one or more occasions
- adverse weather conditions / a dubious pitch

A lot of these factors were in play last Friday, yet the match still ended in a draw. Despite us being pretty abject, we should still have scored 5 or 6.

I can't see us underestimating Horsham again, and it would be a very tough ask for them to play just as well again tomorrow. Even if the worst case scenario plays out of us being as bad as we were last Friday and them being as good, on balance of probability we're still going to create 2-3 times more clear cut chances than them. It would be very unlikely that they would once again put away proportionally twice as many chances as us.

Obviously the beauty of football is that they could still win, and the plastic pitch nudges the odds slightly. Not that much though, and I'd be astonished if we lose.

 

The artificial pitch favours them considerably less than if it was being played on a shitty cabbage patch of a 'grass' surface like you'd have expected in tier 7 20 years ago.

 

Definitely. I'm still of the opinion that in rounds 1-4, any team drawn at home to higher division opposition in the FA Cup should have the option to play the game on a pitch with a grass to mud ratio of 20/80. I'm sure it would properly reverse the decline in FA Cup attendances.

 

Like that Hereford one against Newcastle in the 70s where Ronnie Radford scores that screamer after the ball just sticks in a big muddy patch.

 

That's the classic quagmire match from the 70's. Plus every game televised game ever played at the Baseball Ground.

But even within my living memory there were some cup games played on ridiculous surfaces. Our 2-1 win away at Leicester under Machin was a pretty muddy affair. I also remember MOTD showing an insane tie between Exeter and Norwich on a pitch that would never have been deemed playable today. Absolutely brilliant stuff. By the end it was nigh-on impossible to tell the teams apart. Just 22 blokes who looked like the kid on Slumdog Millionaire after he'd jumped into the latrine.

 

Assuming it will be 88-0 at half time and 1 minute added celebration time per goal, the game will finish at about 25 minutes past midnight and the scoreboard will burn out. Our last minute consolation goal will be Killip pen 90+88.

Can't see it happening really...

 

C,O,Y,R. were only going so i can add Horsham to mi list of grounds, 5 0

 

If we don’t go into the game with the right Attitude then sorry we are going to lose but hopefully we go there and control the game for 90 + minutes
2-0 victory for the super Reds …………………..

 

1-3 go behind early to much derision then don’t let them touch the ball 2nd half

 

Probably controversially, I don't actually think we played particularly badly last Friday against them. Defensively we were a shambles when they were counter attacking, which is how they scored on pretty much every attack they had. But as you say, a lot of it is down to wasted chances. We had enough to win the game 3 times over, but sometimes it's just not your night. That little spell where we had 4 or 5 shots blocked, and it eventually went wide (from either Phillips or McAtee, I don't remember which) was an indictment of our poor finishing that night.

 

I hope to see some defensive changes and the out of his depth defensively De Givigney taken out of the firing line and Williams moved to RWB as a minimum. If not and they have a real go and attack us they'll score given our soft centre - hopefully though we'll put more away at the other end and come away with a shock 1-3 or 2-3 win.

 

Hopefully a very strong side will be put out by us, we could really do with a decent cup run.