Cheltenham Festival 2024 Megathread

Constitution Hill has been withdrawn from Cheltenham.

 

Sad but he’s only 7 which realistically gives him another couple of chances for the double.
Usually 8 years is the oldest winners age however

 

Kevin Blake is very well known for saying "when your horses are fit, run them. They're racehorses". Henderson has a horrendous habit of wrapping his superstars in cotton wool. If there's 2mm of rain too much, then it's back in the box you go. Hopefully there is one positive to it missing the Festival is that maybe he'll run it more often.

I think it'll go chasing next year.

 

Henderson has previously expressed doubt that he would have the stamina to go for the Gold Cup which would conceivably be his aim.
I suppose there are shorter distances but the Gold Cup/ Champions Hurdle double has only been achieved once, I think.
If he failed at jumping, his record would be tarnished

 

Marine Nationale out of the Arkle now. He was 9/4 favourite.

 

I've got a £5 free bet for each day of the festival with Will hill. So will be seeking a decent odds punt each day.

 

Haven't seen any odds, but it would be interesting to see what the books would offer for no British-trained winner. It's never happened before, but it looks far from impossible this year.

 

William Hill have a few interesting bets. The Irish to win all 5 handicap hurdles is 12s - which is a fair price.

Also, Willie Mullins v all GB Trainers is 6/5 the pair (the tie is 5s). 6/5 is surely the biggest steal of all time. He's priced on average around evens to have 9 or more winners - and I think there's no way on this planet that GB trainers come close to that amount.

6/5 could be the greatest price of all time.

 

Bet 365 show 4/6 … tight gits

 

Posted without comment but the annual Yankee bet from yesterday's tipsters & trainers dinner was:

Tue 14.50 - The Goffer
Wed 14.10 - Broadway Boy
Wed 16.50 - Libberty Hunter
Fri 17.30 - Waterford Whispers

Just passing on the info. The value of your investments may go down as well as up.

 

Hope this helps,
tue, Gevrey in the Ultima

 

Hmm! Hope it comes good for you, Mr Winker. But it's been pulled up three out of it's last four and Gordon has six entered in the race! Also, JP McManus has just bought the Mullins-trained favourite!

It's a right tricky meeting, is this!

 

Cheltenham no Mullins, forget the rest.

 

Its one i backed last year, and its one of them that you remember for all the good reasons, aving a good win, 3miles winner, 5 places could sneak one on the day.

 

Well I'd have to concede it placed at 125/1 at Chelters last year Mr Winker, so go for it!

 

Kim Bailey's Hoss "Chianti Classico" in the Ultima Handicap Chase.

 

5 day decs are in for Tuesday and Wednesday - the headline probably being Ballyburn going for the Gallagher(!) on the Wednesday.

I've had an afternoon off work today and I've done a bit of studying - and I reckon I've come up with a few decent pokes at big odds.

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Echoes In Rain - Champion Hurdle - 20s.

Obviously with C.H. missing the race, State Man is now long odds on. But last year he beat Zanahyr by 4 lengths - form which doesn't warrant his lofty rating (IMO). State Man is unbeatable in Ireland, and if this race was run over there I wouldn't be entertaining this. But what beats him? Most of the field are 140 rated handicappers, apart from Zarak The Brave and Echoes In Rain. Echoes has run twice at the Festival before, finishing 4th and 5th in the Mares Race over 2m4, without giving the impression she truly wants that trip. This is her final run before retirement, and with a 7lb mares allowance I give her a big chance in this horrendous renewal.

Ahoy Senor - Ryanair @ 20s

I think this is the standout bet of the week. Was uncharacteristically held up last time out going right handed, but stayed on nicely. Prior to that, it would have shat up in the Cotswold Chase but the stirrup broke and it became impossible to steer. It was jumping for fun during the race, back on a left handed track. Hasn't run over this trip at this track before, but the slightly shorter distance will surely help with its run style.

The others in the race? Banbridge is probably the best horse in the race but won't get its preferred good ground. Stage Star I don't think is good enough. Conflated and Envoi too inconsistent. Capodano is the danger, as that one ended up winning the Cotswold last time, but at double the price my lad will do.

Home By The Lee - Stayers Hurdle @ 14s

This race is another poor renewal of a Championship Race. Teeuphoo is probably a worthy favourite, but failed in the race last year and wants it hock deep. Elliot has realised he goes best fresh and has saved him for the race. The rest of them bar Cranbo are all old enough to smoke - Paisley, Dashel and Champ are all admirable horses but can't win surely. And Cranbo only climbed over the line from Paisley last time. My lad admittedly failed in the race last year, but Davy Russell gave it a Mother and Father of a ride and he smashed into 5 out. They've ridden it from the front this year to no affect, so a nice patient ride will help.

Bravemansgame - Gold Cup @ 14s

Gallopin is the best horse in the race and a deserved favourite. But what was second in the race last year and is a previous King George winner? Not Shishkin, who might refuse to race. Not L'omme Presse who sneaked past Protektorat receving weight. Not Hewick who fell and needs it rattling quick. Not Gerri Colombe who needs 4 miles and couldn't beat L'omme last year. Not FastOrSlow who finished in a handicap behind Corach Rambler. None of them did, yet theyre all a shorter price. I expect Gallopin to win, but if he falls or blows out after a long season, then Bravemans is a huge price.

I've played a few each way singles, doubles and trebles. And if they all win, then I'll buy us another striker so Cole can have a rest.

 

I’ll give it a read tomorrow mate.

 

Not too much rain forecast till start of racing so I would suspect ground will be good-softish by Tuesday. With that in mind my early door picks with a tiny bet ante-post and a view to putting money on the place as well are as follows (just Tuesday at the moment):

Supreme Novices - Slade Steel @8.8 betfair/6.5 - 7.0 generally
Arkle Chase - Matata @32.0 betfair/21.0 generally
Ultima - Theatre Man @22.0 betfair/ 11.0 generally
Champion Hurdle - Lossiemouth @25.0 betfair/6.5 generally (could be losing £2 here if Mullins puts this in the Mares Hurdle but if it runs and is beaten by State Man I'd be losing £2 anyway so here's hoping Mullins opts for this trip and we have a top e/w bet
Mares Hurdle - Lossiemouth if it runs as is most likely but at a price Maries Rock @ 19.0 betfair/13.0 elsewhere
Boodles - Nightmare field but Milan Tino looks good @9.2 betfair/8.0 generally
NH Chase - Elliotts likely second-stringer looks underrated to me so Three Card Brag @20.0 betfair/9.0 generally

The idea is obvously to get the price and back things up with a place bet near the off but some of these prices in spite of the obvious risks like Lossiemouth in the Champion Hurdle are quite good. If they're all withdrawn before race time that's the drawback with ante-post!! Update on Tuesday folks

 

Mullins stated the other day that Lossiemouth goes Mares. I know he's generally a liar, but I don't think even he'd do that.