This is why Labour won't win in 2029

Teachers and GPs ‘staggering’ under extra demands caused by poverty in Great Britain https://www.theguardian.com/society...taggering-extra-demands-poverty-great-britain

Obviously not just this kind of thing but....it IS stuff like this that makes people disillusioned and turn to extremes. And, to be quite honest, if there's no hope who can blame them? Unless Labour take action in government there'll be further polarisation in politics and people will look for alternatives.

 

So the logic is that this situation has grown up over the last 14 years, but if Labour don't sort it out in one term they will vote for the party that created their hardship? Hmm!

 

I think generally there is the need to clean up 45 years of Thatcherism which has gone pretty much unchecked since e 1979 other than a bit of New Labour tinkering at the edges.

can this be done on one parliament obviously not. Are Labour looking to change anything at the moment not really. In a fast paced information world they won’t get much leeway. We just need to look at Johnson and his supermajority of 2019 to see how fast change can be.

I think if by 2029 Labour have improved the health service back to 2010 levels and stopped Streeting from privatising it alongside prosecuting those that have acted corruptly in the last 14 years alongside some policies to alleviate child poverty and housing them that’s probably enough. If they fail to do that and offer hope I suspect that they will will head towards the Farage / Braverman ‘solution’.

above all the next government needs to offer hope. In the absence of hope hatred will grow.

 

Yep. Voters will blame Labour and we'll move to the right. This temporary 'we're not the Tories' mantra by Labour will be exposed as bluster and the emperor with no clothes unless things change quickly. And, there's the right -wing media which you've mentioned yourself. No 'CHANGE' as is promised in the manifesto and the Labour vote will disintegrate. I'm quite worried.

 

That's politics .

 

The polls have been massively wrong in the past , I’m not convinced of a Labour landslide just look what happened in India where Modi was predicted to increase his majority and ended up having to seek a coalition .

 

The right-wing media is exactly the reason Keir has had to position himself and the party where he has. I would be fairly confident that Keir's government will prove rather more radical once they are through the door. The first job is getting elected. For now, that requires a certain amount of presentational dexterity. It looks to me a fair guess that they have changes to the CGT regime in mind. "Nothing requires it in the manifesto" is a fairly thin camouflage! Hopefully they will equalise the IT and CGT rates in some way. I am certain they will not put CGT on principal residences. I expect to see marked improvement in health and social care, although I think a return to the 2010 position would be a stretch. I think somehow turning the clock back to 1979 is even more unlikely, and to be honest, not all that desirable.

Keir has achieved remarkable things in four years. What he intends to do with power (assuming he gains it) will only begin to become apparent after 4 July.

 

The key issue for people will be immigration levels. The Labour government could have a really good 5 years. They could have a steady hand on the finances, not rock the boat too much with myriad tax rises, still manage to make noticeable difference to the NHS and other public services and get close to achieving their net zero aims without alienating people who think its all bullsh1t.

BUT if net immigration is still running at 600k a year and the population has gone up by another 3 million by 2029, all that will be for nothing and Reform will still have a big voice next time. If they bring those numbers down, then Reform will be irrelevant because immigration levels is the only policy they have that resonates. Everything else they offer is Batsh1t.

 

I think the wider public are not all that bothered. The cost of living and the state of the NHS are far more immediate and pressing issues. The difficulties of the latter are more to do with austerity and bad management than with immigration. Immigration can't be resolved unless there is more co-operation between countries on what is a global issue.

 

The problem is, if you reduce immigration then the economy stagnates and tax has to rise. We have too many not working compared to those who are. Unfortunately, no politicians are being honest about this.

Take international students. One of our most successful export sectors - worth over 10% of all our exports and £billions per year - and propping up the higher education sector. But the government are clamping down on international students (and counting them in the immigration figures despite being temporary), which will reduce the number and some universities will go bust.

 

I am not saying I have the answers and I am not saying its easy. But it is a pressing concern for many people that the political class seem to continually want to ignore. We can't continue to base GDP growth on the fact that the population rises by half a million every year.

It concerns me because for all the promises of decent change that Labour are offering, and there are a number of good policy intentions that I can really get behind, despite not being a natural Labour supporter, I don't get the sense that they see immigration numbers as an issue and I don't believe that the numbers will come down in any way. And that opens the door for ever more right wing influence, just as is happening right now in many parts of Europe.

 

I agree on both counts. I do think CGT rates will be adjusted to bring them into line with income tax rates. At present they are out of step (18%/24% property and 10%/20% other gains) and it would seem an obvious change for a Labour government to make, as they will believe, with some justification, that it is not appropriate for tax rates on unearned income to be lower than on earned income.

I don't see CGT being applied to gains on primary residences. That would be the most stupid ill thought out policy since the poll tax if they attempted to do that. It would literally kill the housing market stone dead. Why would anyone sell their house and realise a tax bill when they can sit in it and wait for a change of government to reverse the policy.

 

people are that stupid unfortunately

 

That’s what no one is addressing or being honest about.its perfectly possible to limit immigration. However with an ageing demographic and birth rate hovering around the extinction level of 1 the pay off for that is that we will all be pouter, the economy can’t grow and we will need to raise the retirement age privatise the rest of public services and look at unaffordable things like Trident etc.

I remember this guy called Keir who said when he was trying to get elected as Labour leader that he wa showing to make the progressive case for immigration. Wonder what happened to that guy.

 

Are you happy to sacrifice ideas of growth to lower immigration? To pay significantly more tax? To work longer? That’s the reality. Given our birth rate is around 1 we are desperate for more working age taxpayers. Absolutely desperate.

Immigration isn’t the problem the lack of investment I. The wealth creation they bring is the issue. The Tories have failed to build enough houses particularly social housing, failed to build the infrastructure needed for an expanded population. Just daft things like thousands of trained GPs not being able to get a job while you waiting 500 years for an appointment. If Labour addressed this they address the “problems” of immigration. Unfortunately they have agreed to continue austerity so none of that will happen and that of course feeds the anti immigration manta.

 

Population growth in the UK over the last 14 years has averaged ~0.6%. Population growth over the last ~200 years has averaged... ~0.8%.

We are increasing the population by a *lower* rate than the average over the last 200 years - only fewer babies are being born so more people are coming here as adults and they have a different skin colour.

Nobody would be saying a thing if we had 700,000 babies born every year... (and they don't because we do).

The problem is that the government refused to spend money on the infrastructure needed to support them. The powers behind them are blaming the immigrants - using the Tories, the media and Farage (its the same money behind them all) - because while we are blaming the immigrants, we are not all blaming *them*. The ones that have made the problem, refused to deal with the problem and are now pointing people at a problem they created to stop you blaming them.

 

I have tried to be careful to not express a definitive personal opinion on the matter either way. I am just commenting on the thread topic of whether Labour will get a second term and my view that immigration levels are a concern for the voting populace, hence the rise of Reform.

 

Yes I got that and I agree with you to an extent. Labour should make a progressive case for immigration and spell out very clearly the implications if we restrict it further rather than giving ground to Farage and his ragbag collection of racists.

 

If they do it pre election they might lose, if they do it post election they will be accused of going back on promises.
It's difficult. Hopefully they find a way as I agree totally with your sentiment.

 

I vote you for prime minister.