All the experts seem to think King's Gambit will beat Los Angeles in the 3.00. I'm strongly of the reverse opinion. King's Gambit has graduated from handicaps, but been beaten in Group 3, then Group 2 company. Los Angeles has been beaten only in the Derby, winning the remaining 4 of his 5 races. He won at Group 1 level at two, and again when winning the Irish Derby at 3 this season. He took up the running early in the straight at the Curragh, in the manner of a guaranteed stayer at 12 furlongs and beyond. He has to concede weight to King's Gambit, but King's Gambit has yet to establish his stamina at this trip. Racing Post Ratings and Timeform rate King's Gambit higher, but I think class and guaranteed staying power will allow Ryan to dictate this race and run the finish out of the Charlton horse. I may be proved wrong in the race itself, but I very strongly fancy Los Angeles to take this contest. I think City of Troy will take out the Juddmonte International (3.35) and probably in some style. But given the strength of the field and the number of runners, I don't make him a bet at current prices. I think the 2.25 Acomb Stakes is possibly the best 2yo race of the year so far, but I find it impossible to pick between Ruling Court and The Loin In Winter. They are both exceptional prospects, but this is just a great race to watch. The rest of the card is utterly impossible, and purely for fun bettors!
I won’t be watching today but was surprised to see City of Troy at 7/4 earlier. It’s gone now though. Should win really
Massive thank you for this post. Backed Los Angeles, City of Troy and The Lion in Winter on an each way treble and won £66.
Great to hear, jp! I stuck to my guns and made Los Angeles my only bet. The race unfolded exactly as I expected, and Ryan judged the pace brilliantly to ensure that neither Illinois nor King's Gambit could peg him back. Ryan was equally as brilliant on City Of Troy, with a superb front-running ride which shaved almost a second off the course record. This looks strong form, and Timeform have provisionally rated it a career-best by some 5 lbs. Astonishing then, that for his jaw-dropping Juddmonte win in 2012, Frankel was rated almost a stone higher! He would have been about seven lengths ahead of City Of Troy yesterday, by that estimation. On to Thursday! 1.50 Heaven's Gate Leovanni's two wins have come over 5f, whereas Heaven's Gate has mainly raced over 6f, looking as if she'd relish further. I think she can get galloping early on this big, flat track and outstay Leovanni. 2.25 Arizona Breeze Has to give weight away all round, but has raced at Group level the last four of his five starts. His Group 1 third last time to Babouche and Whistlejacket is the best form by miles in this race, and I'm hopeful his class will overcome the weight concession. 3.00 Elnajmm Made light of his first two handicaps this season. He races under a six-pound penalty here, putting him theoretically 2 lbs "well-in". Perhaps more saliently, he has a Group 1 entry in the QEII Stakes at Ascot in October. He'd need to be winning this to justify running there. The snag is his draw of 17, but Tom Marquand is an exceptionally good tactical rider, so I'll trust him to overcome it. The bookies are not overly-generous, but I'll take him at 100-30 (Bet365). I don't like the Yorkshire Oaks (3.35). Emily Upjohn has the best form but can no longer be trusted. The Gosdens also supply the favourite in Queen Of The Pride, but I'm not totally convinced by the level of her form. Given the form of Aidan O'Brien this week, I'm wondering if Content might yet have more to offer. Although she has finished behind Emily Upjohn and You Got To Me this season, connections apparently have the Breeders' Cup in mind, suggesting that they feel she is capable of more than she has shown thus far. The supporting races look extremely tricky, and are 'watch-only' for me.
