1 in 220 chance of being relegated

Trying some statistics.... No doubt Paul.d will correct me if i am wrong. It is apparent that there are only 3 scenarios that will see barnsley relegated:-
Barnsley LL, Hull WW, Leeds WW
Barnsley LL, Hull WD (or DW - makes no difference which way), Leeds WW
Barnsley LD (or DL), Hull WW, Leeds WW

I have assumed the following percentage chance of each results (open to interpretation)
<table style="border-collapse: collapse" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="336" border="0"><tbody><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="width: 64px; height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td class="xl22" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">home win</font></td><td class="xl23" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">draw</font></td><td class="xl23" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">away win</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">barnsley</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">h</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">leicester</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.5</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.3</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.2</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">a</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan; border: #ece9d8" colspan="2"><font face="Arial" size="2">west brom</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.6</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.25</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.15</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">hull</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">a</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">cardiff</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.5</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.3</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.2</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">h</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">plymouth</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.5</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.3</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.2</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">leeds</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">h</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">ipswich</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.5</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.3</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.2</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">a</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">derby</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.6</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.25</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.15</font></td></tr></tbody></table>

Calculating the probability of each scenario :-</p>

<table style="border-collapse: collapse" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="394" border="0"><tbody><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="width: 64px; height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td class="xl24" style="width: 13px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td class="xl24" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">barnsley</font></td><td class="xl24" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">hull</font></td><td class="xl24" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">leeds</font></td><td class="xl24" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">barnsley</font></td><td class="xl24" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">hull</font></td><td class="xl24" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">leeds</font></td><td class="xl25" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">Total</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td class="xl24" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td class="xl24" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td class="xl24" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td class="xl24" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td class="xl24" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td class="xl24" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td class="xl24" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td class="xl24" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">1</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">dl</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">ww</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">ww</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.23</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.1</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.075</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.001725</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">2</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">ll</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">ww</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">ww</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.12</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.1</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.075</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.0009</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">3</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">ll</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">wd</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">ww</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.12</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.21</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.075</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.00189</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">Total</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.004515</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">or 1 in</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">221.4839</font></td></tr></tbody></table></p>

Surely this is reassuring. People keep going on about how we are not safe yet, but come on, stop whinging and celebrate the next fortnight. The hard work is done. Say we had odds of 3/1 to go down at the end of the season - now it is more like 200/1 (although bookies will probably only offer about 50/1).</p>

</p>

 

I like those odds!

 

Don't tempt fate................................................. nt

 

Seem to recall a few seasons ago

A similar unlikely combination of results required to see a particular team (can't remember who) relegated from Premier, and it happened!

 

I get your point but for once can't the glass be half full

We're on the edge of a great acheivement. Why wait and wait till its mathematically certain. Thats at least another week of nerves. If we do go down, then worry about it then. Lets be positive for the moment

 

I think Hull will get at least 4 points from their games, and I also think Leeds will beat Ipswich.

That being the case if we don't win on Saturday we are going into a very nervy final day, not taking anything for granted yet.

 

Yes it is half full - we are almost there

But I'm not going to go crowing at Leeds fans just yet!

 

20/1 for relegation according to this

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/coca-cola-championship/coca-cola-championship/relegation

 

Must admit i think Hull will get 4 points

but i dont think Leeds will get 6 points, and i also believe we will get one point. I do think it will go down to the last day, with Hull & Leeds both needing to win, and us needing to lose (ie we don't get 3 points against Leicester)

 

RE: I get your point but for once can't the glass be half full

I am positive . I just don't think the jobs done yet. </p>

Imagine the hammer I'd get on here if the unfortunate event did happened. </p>

Where is Slackbladder tonight?</p>

</p>

 

20/1 chance of being relegated

That's based on the betting market not form isn't it?

 

My stats are based on

<table style="border-collapse: collapse" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="298" border="0"><tbody><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="width: 64px; height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td style="width: 13px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td class="xl24" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">home win</font></td><td class="xl25" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">draw</font></td><td class="xl25" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">away win</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">barnsley</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">h</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">leicester</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.5</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.3</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.2</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">a</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan; border: #ece9d8" colspan="2"><font face="Arial" size="2">west brom</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.6</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.25</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.15</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">hull</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">a</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">cardiff</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.5</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.3</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.2</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">h</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">plymouth</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.5</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.3</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.2</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">leeds</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">h</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">ipswich</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.5</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.3</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.2</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">a</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">derby</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2" /></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.6</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.25</font></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.15</font></td></tr></tbody></table>

</p>

If anyone thinks i have been to generous to barnsley, then give me some revised figures and i will rework the stats</p>

 

Of course

As you can see, some bookies such as Coral aren't even offering odds on Barnsley being relegated.

 

Just beat Leicester

Form says we can, we just need to work hard and have the luck we had on Saturday

 

looking at it another way......................

the ONLY WAY Leeds can escape is if they win both their games and other results go their way-I know whose position I prefer !!

 

I've just calculated it using.....

the H and A win draw loss figures for each team and the figure is</p>

0.00416 ie 1 in 240</p>

 

wasn,t it sheff wed when they played forest at home,they could afoord to lose 2-0 at home and they lost 3-0 and were relegated so it can happen!