Today. There may be a 3rd too later. Asker and Krakeroy have both won but haven't been marked yet. Kerching. Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
Just under 80 quid from a quid. I keep saying it, I've got a method. Regularly hitting them now. Certainly turning profit.
Just trust that the bookies know what they are doing when pricing games (they pretty much do), and then put the time in watching how games go. If a team loses (sometimes even if they just look like not winning) get the bet back on with new teams added. My thresholds are 3/1 or more (back the other team) and 12/5 if the home team is priced thus (back away team). My success rate is improving the more I get used to it. Avoid Australian football. American and Italian not the best hit rates. It's not guaranteed but I am paying for my gambling (I like the horses too, and darts, and cricket, and boxing... you get the idea) and turning a bit of profit each month.
It's pretty much that yes. But loads of them accumulated. And they're not all certain bankers. Bookies limit you to 14 fold for a reason. You've got to take a bit of risk to make it worthwhile.
A guy used to come in one of the bookies where I used to work and place about 6 or 7 accas with anywhere between 10 and 20 selections on with a stake of between £30 and £80. He'd choose the same selections on each bet, but one or two slightly different. He used to bet on everything though, horses, dogs, football, snooker, darts, rugby and oddly enough, most of his selections were usually tennis players. Usually prices of 1/3 and shorter. I've seen him come in and draw £3k, but whenever he won he'd stake more, or whenever one selection lost, he'd replace that one with a different one and start the bet again. I reckon he was losing, but only narrowly. He once was waiting on just Denmark beating Armenia at 1/7 for around £2,500 from us (he also said he had about the same to come from Hills). Denmark inexplicably got beaten 4-0. Similar to what you do but with much higher stakes. Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
Assuming they price them "right" (meaning they can properly assess the odds and shave a bit off) and you have no information or insight the bookies don't then there's no way of beating them. Whether it be in single bets or accumulators you are statistically certain to lose in the long run. Any short term wins are just variance. Same as you can't beat roulette.
If the bookies truly know what they are doing then they won't get any wrong. Take it to the extreme and give them a 100% hit rate, so they always price them right, if you pick the favourite result then you'll never lose. They obviously do get it wrong sometimes. The accumulation of odds removes the certain loss element. Unless you can show me the stats to back up your point (it means nothing to state it's statistically certain without showing stats)? I'd agree with you if we were talking about single bets where you try to cover all options as they price opposing markets to ensure they win.
The prices are basically worked out on a points scoring system. 100 points plus whatever mark up the bookie wants to earn, the one I worked for added 14 points. They then share the points between the 3 possible outcomes, and turn the result into a decimal, which is then turned into a fraction to represent the price, how exactly they calculate points to the decimal i cant rememeber. Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
14 folds seem be bonkers to me. Always one that lets you down surely even at seriously odds on? Last night Argentina were massively odds on and even went as short as 1.01 when 2-0 up and still blew it. Seems risky Guessing that's why you only put £1 on like
I mean pricing then right as in if you were to repeat a match infinite times and team 1 win 25% of those, then the bookies price them at something like 2/1. This means that in the long run you can't win. I'd say that the bookies are pretty good at this seeing as they've managed to remain in business for decades. They might be exploitable in discrete situations where you have extra information/insight into a particular match, but if you just bet on teams on the basis that they're favourites you won't win in the long run.
You're missing my point, I'm obviously missing yours. Let's leave it and I'll just keep enjoying the profit.
[/BResult Just did a 13 fold and it came in banking on the apparent certainties. Will give this ago again thanks