3 wins from the first 5 games should see us safe

paul.d · Jun 11, 2007

<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="664" border="0"><tbody><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="width: 94px; height: 20px">strange as it may seem only 2 of the 57 teams finishing in the bottom 3 over the last 19 seasons of the second tier had scored more than 8 points from the first 5 games</td><td style="width: 85px"></td><td style="width: 67px"></td><td style="width: 85px"></td><td style="width: 88px"></td><td style="width: 85px"></td><td style="width: 67px"></td><td style="width: 93px"></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">1988/9</td><td>first 5 games</td><td>1994/5</td><td>first 5 games</td><td>2000/1</td><td>first 5 games</td><td>2006/7</td><td>first 5 games</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Shrewsbury</td><td>2</td><td>Burnley</td><td>2</td><td>Huddersfield</td><td>4</td><td>Leeds</td><td>7</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Birmingham</td><td>3</td><td>Bristol C</td><td>6</td><td>QPR</td><td>6</td><td>Southend</td><td>6</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Walsall</td><td>7</td><td>Notts C</td><td>4</td><td>Tranmere</td><td>7</td><td>Luton</td><td>7</td></tr><tr style="height: 21px"><td style="height: 21px">1989/0</td><td></td><td>1995/6</td><td></td><td>2001/2</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Bournemouth</td><td>8</td><td>Millwall</td><td>13</td><td>Crewe</td><td>6</td><td colspan="2">In the 2 seasons where</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Bradford</td><td>3</td><td>Watford</td><td>4</td><td>Barnsley</td><td>4</td><td colspan="2">a bottom 3 club had</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Stoke</td><td>4</td><td>Luton</td><td>5</td><td>Stockport</td><td>1</td><td colspan="2">more than 8 points after</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">1990/1</td><td></td><td>1996/7</td><td></td><td>2002/3</td><td></td><td colspan="2">5 games they only went</td></tr><tr style="height: 21px"><td style="height: 21px">Leicester</td><td>3</td><td>Grimsby</td><td>4</td><td>Sheff W</td><td>2</td><td colspan="2">down on goal difference</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">WBA</td><td>8</td><td>Oldham</td><td>1</td><td>Brighton</td><td>4</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Hull</td><td>2</td><td>Southend</td><td>4</td><td>Grimsby</td><td>2</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">1991/2</td><td></td><td>1997/8</td><td></td><td>2003/4</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Plymouth</td><td>7</td><td>Man C</td><td>5</td><td>Walsall</td><td>6</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Brighton</td><td>7</td><td>Stoke</td><td>5</td><td>Bradford</td><td>4</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Port V</td><td>5</td><td>Reading</td><td>1</td><td>Wimbledon</td><td>3</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">1992/3</td><td></td><td>1998/9</td><td></td><td>2004/5</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Brentford</td><td>6</td><td>Bury</td><td>11</td><td>Gillingham</td><td>6</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Cambridge</td><td>3</td><td>Oxford</td><td>2</td><td>Notts F</td><td>4</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Bristol R</td><td>3</td><td>Bristol C</td><td>3</td><td>Rotherham</td><td>3</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">1993/4</td><td></td><td>1999/0</td><td></td><td>2005/6</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Birmingham</td><td>7</td><td>Walsall</td><td>6</td><td>Crewe</td><td>6</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Oxford</td><td>6</td><td>Port V</td><td>4</td><td>Millwall</td><td>1</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td style="height: 20px">Peterborough</td><td>4</td><td>Swindon</td><td>4</td><td>Brighton</td><td>3</td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

Plankton Pete · Jun 11, 2007

Interesting but,

How the **** do you find trends like that ?

paul.d · Jun 11, 2007

Surprisingly it was from a Bertie Bassett interview....

re the 3 clubs promoted to the Prem-he said-who knows where he got the info?-that no team has ever been relegated from the Prem having scored 9 or more pts from the first 5 games and it got me wondering if the same applied to the championship-I have to admit it surprised me somewhat-I assumed that there's usually a team who have a terrible run towards the end

paul.d · Jun 11, 2007

Unfortunately..............

we don't do it too often !

<table style="border-collapse: collapse" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="96" border="0"><tbody><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="width: 64px; height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1988-9</td><td class="xl63" style="width: 64px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">7</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1989-0</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">7</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl64" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1990-1</td><td class="xl64" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">9</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1991-2</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">1</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1992-3</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">4</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1993-4</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">4</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1994-5</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">7</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl64" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1995-6</td><td class="xl64" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">9</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl64" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1996-7</td><td class="xl64" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">15</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1997-8</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">6</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1998-9</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">6</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl64" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">1999-0</td><td class="xl64" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">9</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">2000-1</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">6</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">2001-2</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">4</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">2002-3</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">8</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl64" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">2003-4</td><td class="xl64" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">11</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">2004-5</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">5</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">2005-6</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">7</td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl63" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8">2006-7</td><td class="xl63" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right">7</td></tr></tbody></table>

EastStander · Jun 11, 2007

Brilliant!

That's it then....get them 3 wins and then feet up lads!

paul.d · Jun 12, 2007

I'd pick

Statistically (historically) we want Scnuthorpe Stoke and Blackpool at home and Palace and Hull away

fingers crossed

Zukkster · Jun 12, 2007

No team that were bottom of the Preiership at Christmas

...HAD (past tense) ever stayed up

Until it happened.

paul.d · Jun 12, 2007

statistics are not 100% accurate predictors

they simply report what has happened so far-they do however over a period of time give an indication of how likely an event is

so while I fully accept that a team bottom at Christmas has survived the balance of probabilities is still that it is extremely unlikely

Chef Tyke · Jun 12, 2007

are you a gambling man paul?

paul.d · Jun 12, 2007

in what way?

are you suggesting a bet along the lines of "if we get 9 pts from first 5 games and go down" you get shedloads of money from me and if we stop up I get shedloads from you?

Zukkster · Jun 12, 2007

Yeah I know you weren't saying that

Trouble is the bottom by Christmas became almost a by word for going down, that the pundits trotted out as if it were nailed on.

Like you say, that fact that it's not happened makes it unlikely, but you have to get a lot of observations before you start being able to do anything like make a stab at a probability. For example the Premiership has been around for about 20 years, so if it happens once you might (wrongly) assume a 5% probability. Without at least another 150 seasons before it next happens ... you won't know whether it's actually a 1% chance of happening, and if you get it happening twice, then your probability guess might end up at 1 in 10. There's a huge difference in odds between 1% and 10%

Chef Tyke · Jun 12, 2007

No

just wondered if you placed bets on the basis of your stats - ie saw some good odds at a bookies based on the statistical history.

paul.d · Jun 12, 2007

roughly..............

9% I'd say

paul.d · Jun 12, 2007

RE: No

only ever bet once on footy-Barnsley to go up one year-forget which-they didn't of course!!

3 wins from the first 5 games should see us safe

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