5/2 for home win

For a team that’s won 9 on the bounce, including Plymouth, Sheff Weds, Derby etc.

Big odds for a home win.

 

11/4 with Bet 365.

https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B1/C1/D8/E135934630/F3/G40/

Ridiculous odds. Might just touch 3s at some point somewhere.

 

Ipswich have dropped only 2 points from their last 12 games. They've only conceded 2 goals in that time, and have gone behind only once, where they turned it around to win.

Can see why bookies will have them as favourites

 

Maybe so but 5/2 (11/4 as DB said) is mental.

 

Im afraid I have to agree with them, because there's also the fact that we have a pathetic record against Ipswich.

 

I'm untroubled by the Bookies' odds. I expect the team aren't either. Bookies' odds are determined by weight of money on outcomes in order to ensure they make money whatever the outcome. I hope The Reds turn up (and score first ). If we do that we have a good chance of winning.
Let's hope The Reds play well on Tuesday night, we're quite capable of winning: still won't guarantee promotion but, going into the play-offs, it would be a sign that the club at the top of League One, over the last 30 games, mean business.

 

Im not suggesting I’m troubled by the bookies opinion, I’m saying there’s boat loads of value in that bet.

Those odds are suggesting Barnsley would beat Ipswich 4 times out of 15. I think that’s as massive underestimate on current form and the strengths of each team, therefore loads of value.

My brain is capable enough to know that odds don’t have any bearing over the results (unless there’s a betting scam going off ofc).

 

Only if you win.

 

Particularly when you consider Ipswich have only won 4 of their last 12 away games in all competitions (only 3 defeats mind).

 

Those odds are good enough that you wouldn't even need Barnsley to win, just score the first goal (much more likely I would say) and then you can lay off to de-risk the result. Not that I condone gambling at all and find it dull.

 

REALLY pathetic lol but we did against Wednesday and ended that dreadful run.

 

Or 4 out of last 5. Maybe if we’d played them on the original date…

 

With Bet365 this morning:

Barnsley 14/5 (26%)
Draw 23/10 (30%)
Ipswich 1/1 (50%)

So it all depends whether you think we have a better than 26% chance of winning!

 

So there’s a 106% chance of one of those results?

 

The 6% is the bookies mark up I believe.

 

Correct. Put another way, the bookies will return £100 to the punters for every £106 they take.

 

I'm surprised it's so low, I'm fairly certain when I worked for Coral, they worked towards a 12% margin.

 

That is quite high for football bets.
I may be wrong but I thought they averaged round 4/4.5 % and approx 6.0 % for horses.

Perhaps the bookies 12% margin was when betting tax was payable by paying it on your stake or on your win money plus stake ?

 

Interesting, isn't it? I think it's to do with there only being three "runners" in footy matches.

Just looking at random at yesterday's results at Plumpton, the "over-rounds", with number of runners in brackets were:

108% (3), 115% (7), 122% (11), 110% (4), 115% (7), 114% (7) and 115% (7). So fairly consistent!

It's interesting how the bookies are confident enough to bet to lower percentages on football matches.

 

I know we will beat Ipswich it's a nailed on big odds banker on my accumulator.