6th place teams - 11/17 wins needed?

Is it a big ask 11 wins in 17 games? Based on VI’s points per game (1.72) we are forecasted to finish on 71 points which would get us into the play-off four times in the past 16 seasons

you could argue the 1.72 points per game will increase after strengthening....


Average points for 6th place teams since championship began is 73.6


70 – 74 -75 -80 -74 – 78 – 72 - 68 – 75 – 75 – 70 – 74 - 70 -75 – 75 – 73

The season 6th place got to 80 points,.... after 29 games 6th place had 49 points which we see now with Bournemouth.


Not impossible if we can keep it up

 

No chance of the play-offs in my opinion, but 60 points and mid-table safety represents real and measurable progress.

 

Would that be enough progress for Mowatt?

 

If we don’t get automatic, I’m not renewing my season ticket.

 

'Teams like Barnsley 'don't get in the play offs

 

No idea. I'd love him to sign, but I said in January I'd rather keep him for the rest of this season and lose him on a free than cash in.

 

I guess it depends how close we end up maybe? Personally, I think he'll be off but if we can just keep winning and finish the season on a real high then who knows

 

If we'd sold him it would have been dead money anyway because we'd have needed a like for like replacement. Only thing that rankles me is he'll go for nothing in the summer. He owes us nowt though.

 

If we win most of our home games and continue to pick up points away then we are definitely in the mix.

Id hazard a guess that we are one of the most feared teams in the league at the moment, because of how we play.

@Tyketical Masterstroke posted it the other day that we are a nightmare to play against.

Most of the hard games are out of the way now. Loads of winnable games left.

 

Before the Brentford game I had us down to win nine of our remaining games. The fact is while we are playing like this we can beat anyone. I wouldn't be surprised if we went on a run. We aren't in the play-off positions so we have no league table pressure. Just concentrate on winning.

 

The wages will not be the stumbling block as I see it. But the signing fee we offer. And if we need to replace him with a player with a substantial fee attached. Then use that money. He’ll still be a saleable asset in 2/3 yrs time.

 

Bristol City A
Stoke H
Millwall H
QPR A
Birmingham H
Derby H
Bournemouth A
Wycombe A
Sheffield Wednesday H
Reading H
Luton A
Middlebrough H
Coventry A
Huddersfield A
Rotherham H
Preston A
Norwich H

11 wins is definitely going to be a huge challenge, but I think there's cause for very cautious optimism in that fixture list. 7-9 points out of the next three games, which I think is doable looking at the form of Bristol City and Stoke, and I might just possibly start thinking about maybe believing!

 

You're right, but I just can't see us going on a 10+ game unbeaten run, we're too profligate in front of goal. The gap to 6th is pretty large (7 points and 18 goals, so effectively 8 points) and we've 17 games to claw it back in. I'm loving what we're about, but I think we're just a tiny bit short right now.

 

13 of the 17 teams to play are below us. Make that 15 if we win our game in hand.

 

When you compare it with last seasons final position the yeah it has to be for him, he was so close to having reduced wages in league 1.

But if I’m Mowatt I’d be asking what next, it’s the industry they’re in. What kind of ambition do the club show to make the next step and push for the top 6? Or are we just happy finding these gems and selling for a profit?

As a fan I’m over the moon with the progress over the last 12 months. I’d take mid table finishes every year until the football clubs spending over the odds finally explode. But players will rightly so be wanting that next step and push for the premier league. I think he’ll be off, I doubt we can compete financially with the cheats of the league.

 

If we mirror results from the first encounters we'll get to 70 points.

 

Wow, that's actually much better than I was expecting.

We played Coventry (D), Reading (L), Luton (L), Middlesbrough (L), Bristol City (D), Stoke City (D) and Millwall (D) before Ismael got here. Turn some of those losses into draws and a couple of draws into wins and we could be right in there.

 

That’s how I see it.. A win at Bristol & the game in hand v Derby & it looks a bit different..

 

Quick, off the top of the head calculation, with no in depth analysis used - I get us 33 points from that lot. Therefore 75 points at the end of the season. Good enough for top six?

 

Still got that massive Sheffield lot to play though and they'll be pushing for the play offs by then