Am I right in thinking England are through

No matter what happens on Monday

Even if they finish 3rd on 4 points that will be enough won't it ?


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I don't think we are 100% through yet but we pretty much are.

 

I think we are, if Russia lose or draw with Wales the cant catch us, if the win the are the same points and Wales have fewer points.......3 go through...

 

Not quite right. 4 of the 6 3rd place teams go through. 4 points should be enough to be one of those, but it's too early to categorically say that.

 

For there to be a chance of not progressing on 4 points, there would need to be 4 other 3rd placed teams finishing on 4 points.

To finish 3rd on a win, draw and loss, you'd need one of the following group tables:
1st: 6 points / 4 points
2nd: 4 points / 4 points
3rd: 4 points / 4 points
4th: 0 points / 1 point
I don't think there's any other possible combinations that would work.

So the question is, at the current stage, are there 4 other groups that could finish like either of these, given the games that have been played so far. The answer is yes, so we're not quite through.

However, to not go through on 4 points in the first (second) scenario, you would need a goal difference that is worse than 9 (14) other teams who are also on 4 points. Very unlikely given we have a +1 goal difference and have scored 3.

There will come a point when it's no longer possible for 4 other groups to finish like that. I don't know when it will be, maybe after everyone has played twice, maybe earlier, but probably no one will notice when we're mathematically through.