An in depth look at how we avoid relegation

I know it's a lot of text so if you can't be bothered to read it just pick what you reckon we'll get from the last 3 games and see what we need to happen to avoid relegation.

I think Blackburn will be safe so haven't included them. They have 53 points, a better GD than everyone and a game in hand. If we finish above them, then we'll also be finishing above at least two others as well.

Wolves -10GD 51pts
Charlton (A)
Burnley (H)
Brighton (A)

Huddersfield -25GD 51pts
Millwall (H)
Bristol City (A)
Barnsley (H)

Peterborough -7GD 51pts
Derby (A)
Wednesday (H)
Palace (A)

Barnsley -16GD 50pts
Forest (A)
Hull (H)
Huddersfield (A)

Beat Huddersfield
Permutation 1 - Forest (L ) Hull (D) Huddersfield (W) (Hull and Forest results interchangeable) 54 points
We need Huddersfield to only get a further 3 points from Millwall (H), Bristol City (A), arguably rather easy fixtures but we only need them to lose one of these games.
The final relegation place would need to be filled by Wolves or Peterborough. Due to their superior GD we need one of them to only pick up 2 points (3 would keep them up). They both have similar fixtures, a home game against a below mid table team, an away game against a mid table team and an away game against a playoff chasing team. It's a tough ask that one of them fails to win any of those but it is possible.
blivy's survival chance rating: 3/10

Permutation 2 - Forest (D) Hull (D) Huddersfield (W) 55
Huddersfield would need to win both their other games to finish above us, unlikely. Wolves and Peterborough would both need 4 points to send us down. Can they both manage a win and a draw? Unfortunately I think they might as I suspect they'll win their home game and pick up at least a point on their travels.
blivy's survival chance rating: 5/10

Permutation 3 - Forest (L ) Hull (W) Huddersfield (W) 56 points
As above Huddersfield would need to win both their other games to finish above us, something I don't believe they'll do.
Wolves and Peterborough would both need 5 points to send us down. A win and two draws is possible for Peterborough given their unbeaten run but I can't see Wolves finishing the season unbeaten. Can they get two wins from their last 3 though? Brighton away looks difficult but they may be safely in the playoffs, however no team wants to go into the playoffs following a loss. That leaves Charlton (A) (we know what they're capable of) and Burnley (H). I can't see them winning two of those meaning we would finish above them.
blivy's survival chance rating: 7/10

Permutation 4 - Forest (D) Hull (W) Huddersfield (W) (Hull and Forest results interchangeable) 57 points
Huddersfield can't finish above us no matter what. Wolves and Peterborough would both need to win 2 of their remaining three. Surely one of them will slip up here. It's worth noting that the extra one point that takes us from 56 to 57 could be vitally important.
blivy's surivial chance rating: 9/10

Draw against Huddersfield
Permutation 5 - Forest (L ) Hull (W) Huddersfield (D) 54 points
Like Permutation 1, Wolves and Peterborough only need 3 points to finish above us from their 3 games and with a relatively easy home game each, it's likely they'll manage it. Huddersfield join Wolves and Peterborough here, with us needing them to fail to win either of their other games. Will two of these teams only pick up 2 more points? I'm not so sure.
blivy's survival chance rating: 2/10

Permutation 6 - Forest (D) Hull (W) Huddersfield (D) (Hull and Forest results interchangeable) 55 points
As above but Huddersfield, Wolves and Peterborough need 4 points rather than 3. We need two of them only to get 3 points. That's likely for Huddersfield and not too unlikely that Wolves or Peterborough lose their away games and only win their home game.
blivy's survival chance rating: 4/10

Permutation 7 - Forest (W) Hull (W) Huddersfield (D) 57 points
Huddersfield would need to have won both their other games to finish above us. Wolves and Peterborough would also need to win 2 of their remaining 3. I can see two of them not managing to do this.
blivy's survival chance rating: 7/10

Lose to Huddersfield
Permutation 8 - Forest (D) Hull (W) Huddersfield (L ) (Hull and Forest results interchangeable) 54 points
To finish above Huddersfield we'd need them to lose their other two. To finish above Peterborough or Wolves we'd need them to fail to win any of their remaining 3 games. Will two of those three come off? I don't think so.
blivy's survival chance rating: 1/10

Permutation 9 - Forest (W) Hull (W) Huddesfield (L ) 56 points
As above, to finish above Huddersfield we need them to fail to win both of their other two games since 3 points would be enough for them to finish above us. Wolves and Peterborough would both need 5 points to finish above us, a difficult task for them as noted in Permutation 3. This is the only permutation listed that might see us and Huddersfield escape relegation.
blivy's survival chance rating: 6/10

Anything else not listed either results in near certain relegation or near certain safety.

It's going to be either us, Huddersfield, or both of us so I think beating them is vital. In my opinion, anything but a win against Huddersfield would need us to pick up at least 4 but more likely 6 points from the other two games. A win against Huddersfield and I think 2 or 3 points from the other two games will be enough.

 

****ing hell

 

How about just win our last three games!

 

Basically

if don't win both games against Hull and Forest, it will go down to the last game at Hudds with us needing to win and hoping other results go our way.

Come On You Reds!!!

 

You have way too much time on your hands methinks!
Interesting read but whichever way you look at it I reckon we need to win 2 of our last 3 games at the very least or we're down.
We've had no help from anyone else thus far and I wouldn't bet on that changing now.

 

Possibly, I should probably be working but you know how it is.

It will be Bristol City, Huddersfield and Wolves that go down with us winning on the final day to secure our championship status for one more year.

 

That should be "for another year"!!

 

Re: Basically

Or if we lose our next two games and Hudders and Wolves win there's next...the last game wont mean a flying ****...

Basically we need to win at Forest and other results to go our way..to stand any chance..id say..

 

Re: Basically

I'd expect Wolves to pick up 4 points from the next two games, huddersfield 6 points and Peterboro 3 points, so if we don't win one of the next two games we'll be down before we kick off at Huddersfield, whereas even if we do win a game we'll have to beat Huddersfield and hope the other games go our way (and Wolves and Peterboro could be facing teams resting players for the play offs). It doesn't look good.

 

Re: Basically

draw win win is what i reckon would see us safe, just can't see it now, not sure 6pts is enough and don't expect any help from wendy,
i expect a loss at forest, but with all the twists this league as chucked out this season i still reckon we'll be still scrapping v's hull.
what a difference a week makes, all confident after the cardiff game, week later and it looks grim!
hope flickers can rally them, but with a depleted squad?

 

Re: Basically

We don't need to beat Forest, if we lose we can still stay up if we win our other two games. Huddersfield would need to win both their others to finish above us which I don't think they will. Then BOTH Peterborough and Wolves would need 5 points from their remaining three to send us down. I think Wolves will get beaten at Brighton on the last day which would mean they need to win both Charlton (A) and Burnley (H) which I don't think they will.

That would keep us up. (Permutation 3).