Betting Probability For Tomorrow

Barnsley P:9 W:4 D:2 L:3
Doncaster P:10 W:1 D:5 L:4

Averaging those results out, the percentages for BFC Win/DRFC Loss v Draw/Draw v BFC Loss/DRFC Win would equal 42%/37%/21%.

This would suggest the prices should be approximately: Barnsley 6/4; Draw 13/8; Doncaster 4/1.

The best prices on offer are: Barnsley 2/1; Draw 6/4; Doncaster 12/5.

Barnsley's price is therefore approximately 33% better than the season results statistics suggest it should be. This excludes additional considerations such as DRFC being at home, injuries/suspensions, and recent head to heads (to the extent that that is relevant, given changed personnel).

This sort of stuff is never an exact science, but the general impression is that BFC are value at 2/1 tomorrow.

Is this too simplistic? Any other views welcome.

 

Probability of me betting tomorrow is 100%. As it is every day.

 

A barnsley and Australia double.

 

I reckon considering away from home we lost from a winning position a Radio Sheffield region derby, got thrashed by for many our most hated ever manager to nill and struggled to a point at then bottom of the league Blackpool, 2/1 is about right.

If we were playing Donny at home tomorrow i'd expect us to be around 6/5.

 

Barnsley draw / England win.