Brecon and Radnorshire

Brecon & Radnorshire, result:

LDEM: 43.5% (+14.3)
CON: 39.0% (-9.6)
BREX: 10.5% (+10.5)
LAB: 5.3% (-12.5)
MRLP: 1.0% (+1.0)
UKIP: 0.8% (-0.6)

In the midst of a minority government trying to force their Tory Brexit on us while most other aspects of public life are ignored Labour poll just 5%?

 

It's never been a seat where Labour have prospered and if you tally the pro-Brexit vote it outvoted the remain vote on the night. This tells me two things. Firstly, in a General Election, which we're likely to get pretty soon, the seat is still in play for the Tories and anyone advocating a 2nd referendum on the assumption that many leave voters have changed their minds should be wary because this was a seat which voted leave in the referendum and on the evidence of yesterday's vote is still minded to leave the EU. BoJo needs to come to a pre-election pact with Farage so the leave vote isn't split. Plaid Cymru and the Greens stood aside for the Lib Dems yesterday which helped voters minded to remain. Labour's triangulation on Brexit might be having a negative effect but I'm not sure Brecon and Radnorshire was the place to draw any definitive conclusions.

 

I agree definitive conclusions maybe shouldn't be drawn. Overall, Labour's support in he constituency has been declining. However the previous nadir was 2010, when there was a fairly typical voter-fatigue with 13 years of Labour rule, and Labour polled 4,096 (10.4%). So last night Labour were down 59% even on that low point. While I agree that conclusions can't be drawn, I think certain inferences can be made - namely that this particular electorate was not attracted to Labour with it's current leadership and stance (?) on Brexit. The Conservative and Brexit Party vote combined was less than the Conservatives polled in 2017 or 2015.

 

Fantastic news to wake up to. One less tory vote that could be used to bully through something that was never put forward to be the will of the people.

Though BBC breakfast news hasn't mentioned it yet since I woke up. Imagine if the tories had gained it and the therefore triumphant march of the right wing as we head forth into hyperbolic hedonism.

 

According to some it's equivalent to the Tories winning it.

Great news in my eyes though and one more vote against in a vote of no confidence.

 

Labour's was down 12% to 1,680 votes. That means that approx 200 less people voted for them this time. Im not sure that's statistically significant in itself.

 

Indeed; I’d like to think enough labour voters had the common sense to vote Lib Dem rather than voting Labour to get Tory.

But the electorate contains plenty of stupid, it’s also reasonable to suggest that all the idiots voting for Farage’s party have just reduced the parliamentary majority of the most right wing government the country has ever known.

 

No surprise there in a rural community. Boris obviously failed to reassure the farmers that their livelihoods were safe after Brexit despite his personal visit.

 

I think the "according to some its equivalent to the Tories winning it" is a reflection on the Lib/Dems leader whos voting in the house of commons is equivalent to the right-wing of the Tory party churton. But it is great news that there is one less Tory and one less No-deal Brexit vote.
Jo Swinson's voting record - consistently voted against raising welfare benefits in line with prices, voted for a reduction in spending on welfare benefits for the disabled, always voted for the bedroom tax, voted for the increasing rate of VAT, voted for higher taxes on plane tickets, voted for higher taxes on alcoholic drinks, this woman took £14, 000 from a fracking company but says shes against fracking.

 

im no fan of the fib dems however im glad they won last night. As above its amusing the brexit party probably cost the tories the seat, they wont see the irony in it id expect. isnt it a bit sad that the **** show of brexit dominates national elections when there are far more important issues here at home.

 

I am still confused that a no confidence vote would prevent Brexit. Yes, I realise that there is just (and only just) enough time for the chain of events to take place i.e. a vote of no confidence- General election - new anti Brexit Govt ??? to do so, but even then, the only way to stop it would effectively revoke Article 50 (unlikely as there is probably insufficient time to get that through Parlaiment) or ask for an extension which the EU have stated enough is enough and would likely be rejected.

Those politicians (e.g. Corbyn) and media commentators advocating a renegotiation are, in many cases, the same ones saying BoJo is talking nonsense by saying he can renegotiate a better deal. You cannot have it both ways. The default LAW (and EU position( is to leave end of October and in spite of the BBC, Guardian etc constantly commenting on Parliament 'stopping Brexit' via an election I cannot really see how it could happen in the real world.

 

I like that UKIP were beaten by the Monster Raving Looney Party.

 

Boris will certainly not revoke Article 50, but I think there is an alternative scenario Tekktyke. I am not saying it is likely - the reverse may be true. But it goes like this. Boris persists with his lemming tactic. Vote of no confidence in September/October. Instead of voting for a general election, a cross-party alliance demonstrates that it can form a government for dealing with this crisis. The 2017 Withdrawal Act was amended so that the minister of state (i.e. the Brexit Secretary) may amend the departure date by order. The cross-party alliance nominate a Brexit secretary for this purpose and negotiate a further extension with the EU permitting further discussions to take place and consideration to be given to other resolutions (election in due course, confirmatory referendum, etc). As you say, the default legal position is that departure is on 31 October, but it is also that this can be amended by the minister.

 

Sorry, it is the 2018 Withdrawal Act and the relevant provision is Section 20(4):

"(4)A Minister of the Crown may by regulations—

(a)amend the definition of “exit day” in subsection (1) to ensure that the day and time specified in the definition are the day and time that the Treaties are to cease to apply to the United Kingdom".

 

Jollies, then a 5 week conference season

Some could argue the leadership contest was engineered to rule out even more time to push no deal through.

 

But surely that cannot be a unilateral decision and something the EU must agree to. Unless it can be clearly demonstrated (and it certainly has not been up to now) that Parliament and govt (whichever one) can come up with a viable plan then they are unlikely to agree to yet another extension. I am not sure that businesses or the public at large would accept yet another delay and damaging period of uncertainty.

 

You may well be right with your last sentence Mr T as regards 51.9% of the electorate! I think the EU have always said that they would accept another extension if a "significant event" were in prospect - a GE or PV2 being examples. But you were talking about the default position in UK law. I agree the EU side would need to agree as well. Anyway, don't you think it's significant that Theresa May's greatest hero was Geoffrey Boycott?

 

why should we accept one that will last for 30 to 50 years!