But what about the Bank Holiday second spike????

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Tyketical Masterstroke, Jun 5, 2020.

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  1. Tyk

    Tyketical Masterstroke Well-Known Member

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    Tyketical Masterstroke, Jun 5, 2020
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  2. LiverpoolRed

    LiverpoolRed Well-Known Member

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    R rate increased in North West back above 1
     
    LiverpoolRed, Jun 5, 2020
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  3. pon

    pontyender Well-Known Member

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    And the South West.
     
    pontyender, Jun 5, 2020
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  4. LiverpoolRed

    LiverpoolRed Well-Known Member

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    Thanks - couldn't remember off top my head if it was South East or West
     
    LiverpoolRed, Jun 5, 2020
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  5. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

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    And doubled in London
     
    Scoff, Jun 5, 2020
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  6. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

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    Oh, and the figures are probably around 13000 higher than the 40000 who have officially died from COVID.*



    *To 1st May.
     
    Scoff, Jun 5, 2020
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  7. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

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    And the Brexit Party Chairman and another Tory MP (and a few right-wing journalists too) been breaking the rules

     
    Scoff, Jun 5, 2020
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  8. Bak

    Baka Well-Known Member

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    The Brexit Party are used to breaking the rules, to be fair to them.
     
    Baka, Jun 5, 2020
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  9. Jimmy viz

    Jimmy viz Well-Known Member

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    Most deaths reported on. Friday since bank holiday. R number creeping back above 1. Death total as per FT analysis creeping towards 70k. Not sure there is much good news.
     
    Jimmy viz, Jun 5, 2020
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  10. troff

    troff Well-Known Member

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    troff, Jun 5, 2020
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  11. pon

    pontyender Well-Known Member

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    **** the second spike, the first one hasn't finished yet. 357 more deaths registered in the last 24 hours. I think your brain is in lockdown.
     
    pontyender, Jun 5, 2020
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  12. SuperTyke

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    If daily new infections are down what is the r number based on?
    Its impossible to know WHO passed on the virus to each person so it can't be calculated via that. Surely it must only be calculated via the number of new infections which a mathematical formula is used to compare to the previous day's infections and create a reproduction number.
     
    SuperTyke, Jun 5, 2020
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  13. Mr Badger

    Mr Badger Well-Known Member

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    and Barnsley attendances are always over 11,000 despite empty ground.
     
    Mr Badger, Jun 5, 2020
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  14. SuperTyke

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    Deaths are treated to new infections though. We could have had zero new infections in the last 3 weeks and still be seeing hundreds a day die.would that justify a lockdown?
     
    SuperTyke, Jun 5, 2020
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  15. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

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    We are not testing enough people and getting the results back quickly enough. China tested the entire population of Wuhan in 19 days (and found no significant cases) - that is 11million people in 19 days or nearly 3 times the number of *tests* the UK are claiming to perform.
     
    Scoff, Jun 5, 2020
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  16. SuperTyke

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    Which begs the question even more of what is the r number actually based on? Or more to the point how wildly inaccurate is it?
     
    SuperTyke, Jun 5, 2020
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  17. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

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    This is my *guess*.

    It uses sampling techniques to estimate - same as political polling - so if you test 100000 people and 2000 are positive, you can scale it up to 66m and 132000 positive, but with some funky maths to make it more accurate. But it is still a model.
     
    Scoff, Jun 5, 2020
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  18. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    The R number is purely a estimate as far as I know. It would also stand to reason that if fewer people are actually testing positive the R number would fluctuate more on a smaller sample size.
     
    Redstone, Jun 5, 2020
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  19. Tyk

    Tyketical Masterstroke Well-Known Member

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    Except for last Friday. Oh, and err, the Friday two before that. But apart from that - good stats.
     
    Tyketical Masterstroke, Jun 5, 2020
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  20. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    I worry that we will limp through the summer with restrictions then the we may have a increase in cases through the winter months and lockdown again. Disaster.
     
    Redstone, Jun 5, 2020
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