Champion Hurdle - Cheltenham - Tuesday

Before we take on Brighton tomorrow evening there is the small matter of the start of the Cheltenham Festival and tomorrow is Champion Hurdle Day. As I've said before on here, making a success of betting is not about individual 'tips' or one-off bets that might net a good return. It's all about strike rate in the longer term, and consistently taking prices where a horse has a better percentage chance of winning than the odds suggest.

Hurricane Fly won this race two years ago, but under-performed last year, when he finished fourth. Reportedly off colour that day, Willie Mullins indicates that he is far happier with the horse coming into this year's race. His performances this year, based on Timeform ratings are better than those of his opponents tomorrow. Last time out he left his rivals standing like trees in the Irish Champion Hurdle, including Binocular, who Tony McCoy rides again tomorrow. Hurricane Fly is a course winner and the ground will pose no problems to him.

His main rivals, Grandouet, Rock On Ruby and Zarkander all boast a similar level of form this season, to my eyes. Taking weight differences into account in their trials at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Wincanton, there is very little between them. Ruby Walsh could have ridden the Paul Nicholls-trained Zarkander, but opts for Hurricane Fly. I give very little chance to any of the other five runners.

If you backed all three of the above at the best current prices, the combined odds would equate to around 10/11, indicating a chance in the region of 55% that one of them would win. My estimate is that their combined chance is 50% at best, and possibly less than that.

Hurricane Fly on the other hand, is available at 2/1, which represents a 33% chance. My estimate of the probability of his winning would be in the region of 45-50%, which would suggest his true price ought to be 11/10 or Evens. If you take the 2/1 then you've got a proper bet, in my view. No certainty of course, but the sort of bet that I would want to be taking.

 

Why doesn't someone organise a tipping competition for Cheltenham? I'll happily have time to provide my picks & naps daily but can't organise it ........ I'LL BE AT CHELTENHAM ALL WEEK

 

Well last week William Hills offered 3/1 on Hurricane Fly and Paddy Power are currently offering to refund all losing bets if Hurricane Fly wins. Zarkandar will win anyway so just back Zarky and if it does lose get a refund as it will only lose to Hurricane Fly.