Cheltenham 2025 thread

Im sure one or three will be offering suggestions for this year. I'll start for Tuesday...

1.20 Kopek Des Bordes with Workahead each way
2.00 Majborough with Touch Me Not each way
2.40 Broadway Boy e/w and Trelawne each way (7 places at moment)
3.20 Lossiemouth with Kala Conti each way
4.00 Constitution Hill
4.40 Liam Swagger each way (6 places at least)
5.20 Haiti Couleurs or Transmission. Maybe one of them each way...?

What do folks think?
Best of luck if youre punting

 

Potentially, there are races with odds on favourites so it could be very easy chasing bigger price winners even if you think the favourite will succeed.
There’s nothing wrong with backing a horse at /[emoji6] if you think it’ll win.
E.W. bets and possibly forecasts should be considered if you want to steer clear of hot favourites.
Transmission has a real chance.

 

I would strongly advise not backing anything each way in the 2.00 and the 4.00. There's less than 8 runners in both races so you only get paid out for the first 2 - and with long odds on favs then you're really only playing for 1 place.

 

Youre correct on the 2.00 but I do think Touch Me Not is underrated and is worth a small stake to place. On the 4.00 you'd normally be correct but on the exchange they do have a 3rd place market if it floats your boat (im not playing that race myself even though Ive tipped Constitution) Exchange is very good for manipulating stakes I would suggest especially if you just fancy something to place.

 

Romeo Coolio,
Leau du sud,
King Turgeon, Search for Glory
July Flower,
Stencil, all e / way, good luck an enjoy the festival.

 

The usual odds on favourites plus Katate Dori (14.40) and Total Look (16.40) e/w

I’ll probably win nowt.

 

I think Karate Dori has a squeak

 

Some really good fav's, an good prices good luck.

 

post free bets when available
already bagged free £5 bets off skybet paddypower williamhill, random freebies on betfair

 

If you back an accumulator with these Horses at the current prices Kopek Des Bordes 10/11, Majborough 8/15, Lossiemouth 4/6, and Constitution Hill 8/13 for £10 your return would be £78-81p

 

They should all win but one of them will get d icked mate.

 

1:20 four places with Skybet. Romeo Coolio e/w.
2:40 Trelawne e/w.
3:20 Jade de Grugy.
4:40 Murcia e/w.
5:20 Hasthing e/w.

Think all the favourites should win but biggest chance of upsets in the 1:20 Mullins is mob handed and the 3:20 Lossiemouth worth taking on with 3 places available with Skybet.

Agree with Fonzie about the 2pm and 4pm. Think both races ruined by less than 8 runners. Tempted by a couple at longer odds but not worth it for the small stakes I bet with.

I wouldn't be going in early on any of the short ones either. They might drift on the day.

 

So, the shape of the first day card! The four Grade 1's have odds-on favourites (with the exception of there being a little bit of Evens about Kopek Des Bordes in the first), while the other three races are 24, 22 and 18-runner handicaps. The handicaps make little appeal to me, and appear to involve educated guesswork but no standout chances. Since the expansion of the Festival to four days there have been more options for the novices and the proven Grade 1 performers. Understandably, they dodge each other, so we wind up with uncompetitive races and odds-on favourites. Steve Mellish had a magnificent rant about this at the beginning of Racing TV's Sunday coverage, and I agree with him!

Here's some stats. Across the last five years, in non-handicap races at Cheltenham favourites have won 43% of the hurdles races and 48% of the chases. Non-handicap chases produced a small level-stakes profit. In the handicaps, the favourites' strike rates fall to 23% (hurdles) and 27% chases. On another note, at current odds on Oddschecker this morning, the market 'overrounds' per runner are all smaller than the SP overrounds for this day last year. This suggests taking this morning's best prices is the way to go - especially if you can get the 'best odds guaranteed' concession.

In the handicaps, I can see good cases for at least four of the runners in each of the races, and for seven in the Ultima (2.40). But none of them appear standouts to me. I think the favourites all have outstanding chases in the Grade 1's, but I'll be surprised of something doesn't come to the bookies rescue to thwart the four-timer! The one of them that makes most appeal to me is Kopek Des Bordes, about whom there are bits and pieces of Evens about this morning. He looked exceptional at Leopardstown, and I think he'll take an awful lot of stopping in the first.

Disregarding the betting, the whole card will be fantastic to watch. There is the small chance that Constitution Hill could join Night Nurse as Timeform's greatest hurdler of all time. However, by my calculations that would require him to finish at least fifteen lengths in front of Brighterdaysahead or State Man, which is asking a lot.

 

If an when i have a bet i always fancy the E/ way route, rarely back ought less than 5/1, an never back ought with less than 8 runners unless i really like it. Love the input on these posts an always have a look at what people fancy an why,

 

I like Ben Paulings Henrys Freind in the 2-40 it won last time out at Newbury by 6 lengths on good to soft - 3mile and 2, at 12/1.

 

Bet365’s super boost is 6/4 for Constitution Hill

 

Little ew patent
Myretown 2.40
Slurricane 4.40
Will do 5.20
Good luck for the week anyone who is having a punt.

 

Better than the evens Sky Bet have offered. That offer is early as the Bet 365 advert said the bet for that race would be announced at 10 am.

I didn't mention the bookie but one of them 35000 people have put on bets with all four short priced favourites in. If they all win it will cost the industry tens of millions.

12 runners in race 1 and Mullins has 50% of them, which explains why he gets so many winners.

 

That's similar to what I do. I look for extra places usually and/or put most of my stake on the place.

 

I'm the opposite to Orsen - I've no interest in backing short price favourites. There's no fun in watching a 4/7 odds on fav pop round in a five runner novice race. Or Lossiemouth switching late to the Mares Hurdle because Mullins is a liar.

There are a few I've had a little go on - all at decent prices.

1.20 - Tripoli Flyer w/o the fav - 16s
2.40 - The Changingman
4.40 - Holy Sea and Hot Fuss
5.20 - In d'or

Good luck everyone.