Eight wins needed from the remaining seventeen games....

.....to guarantee survival. Or 7 and 3 draws, or 6 and 6. Where are they going to come from?

Feb

Blackpool (A) 1
Boro (a) 0
Wolves (h) 3
Bristol City (a) 1

March

Bolton (h) 3
Burnley (a) 1
Cardiff (a) 0
Watford (h) 1
Wendy (a) 3

April

Leicester (h) 0
Palace (a) 0
Charlton (h) 3
Derby (h) 3
Forest (a) 1
Hull (h) 1

May

Huddersfield (a) ?

By my calculations that set of results would leave us going into the Huddersfield game with 49 points. A couple of must wins in there, definitely need 3 points either at Brizzle or Wednesday, plus against Wolves and Bolton to drag them into the mire. Charlton could also slip back into the mix if they're not careful. It's going to be interesting and probably very close, but I have a feeling we can do it.

 

Important we keep this run going no game is unwinnable if weve got 40 points after the Wednesday game then we have a fighting chance.

 

We have to win all our home games.

 

If we are in with a shout the last 4 games are very winnable

10 points from those 4 games, including a win at Huddersfield, squeaky bum time.

 

No we don't - win a couple of away games and we can afford to not win a couple at home

We don't have to produce promotion form to survive.

Look at merde tete's calculations - assuming we won at Huddersfield that's only six wins and six draws for 52 points. I reckon more than enough.

If from the same calc we drew at hudds, that'd be 50 points. A good effort from where we were New Year's Day and a good chance of staying up. And as its shown, that's only five wins and seven draws, or six wins and four draws maybe. If we can't achieve six wins four draws and seven defeats out of the next 17 we'll deserve to go down.

Personally I think we might do even better than that, but the current form will inevitably dip at some point - hopefully we'll still be solid enough to pick up the odd point when it does and it doesn't last too long either.

 

I think its down to nine team now - anyone from Bolton down are still in trouble and could be caught by us if we carry this run on. I'd say Blackburn and above who are on 37 points are probably, barring a complete collapse in results, safe.

 

If we'd have sacked Hill before that run of easy home fixtures that started with the Wednesday game as gthe majority of sensible people advocated we'd be out of the bottom three by now.

 

This.

 

Indeed. We could lose all our home games and win our aways, but I know which I think is more likely. If we win all our home games we will be ok IMO as we will pick up pts away. You can divvy it up anyway you like, but if we don't win most of our home games we will go down IMO.

 

I still think it will take some doing for us to stay up, we've wasted too many winable home matches.

Any half decent manager could have got more than 1 point from the home matches against Sheffield Wednesday, Peterborough, Ipswich, Blackburn and Birmingham. Unfortunately we didn't have one.

 

I think that because we're keeping clean sheets and and have become difficult to beat we're liable to pick up some unexpected points in the run in.

If we can keep it tight at the back and continue to pick up clean sheets we'll be in with a great chance of sneaking 1-0 wins away from home at places where no one expects us to get anything, just like at Hull. If we can do that now and again and keep the momentum going, it should relieve a bit of the pressure on our home games.

 

;to guarantee survival.;

is that true MT?....the way I see it is we must win 2 games more than Wednesday Ipswich what if they win 9...we need 11..and or, anyone else that may getdraged in...Wolves Hudders maybe so even with 17 games to go we must rely on other teams getting beat...

 

Agree. I think most people saw the writing was on the wall after the home surrender against Nottingham Forest. We acted too late and left Flicker with a mountain to climb but I'm optimistic he will do it.

 

I see what you're saying, but for us to get 53-54 points and go down would be very unlikely IMHO. Plus we can still take points off Wednesday.

 

Would agree but we have Leicester and Watford at home and I think realistically we need to cover these (in my view potential losses ) with some away points

 

No hindsight required:

http://v2.barnsleyfc.org.uk/showthread.php?179241-I-ve-remembered-why-I-stopped-going-after-26-years

 

Re: No hindsight required:

If we'd sacked Hill earlier Flicker wouldn't have been in charge

 

will 52 points be enough?

In the last 15 years only one team has been relegated with 52 points (Leicester) and only one with 51 points (Walsall)

So if we can get 52 we will be very unlucky to go down.
Having said that, this season is very unusual, by now at least one team is tailed off but not this year.
It may be that more than 52 will be needed, or 52 and top dog goal difference at least.