Genuine question no insults etc please...

EU politicians are lining up to say 'Out is Out' and no 'cherry picking' (seems to be a phrase widely used) and we have to play 100% by their rules during negotiations. Given that EU businesses have been pretty quiet since the vote, and just beforeit, the German equivalent of the CBI stated it would be madness to cut Britain off, do we think the EU is 'whistling past the graveyard'?

Are we in fact, in a stronger negotiating position than is being stated and WILL the EU ultimately have to make compromises as they will face pressure from businesses particularly in Germany (and we know how businesses influence politics) or will Germany turn its back on billions of pounds worth of export business to the UK to save face for the EU politicians.? Do we think that without major concessions the EU will be able to maintain its current path towards integration?

Those with an agenda please don't bother answering I am after views of people who are not 100% certain of their infallibility and a balanced reasoned discussion here. For the record, I think it wont be close to being as easy as the Brexit advocates said, but nor do I belive thatv the EU won't come under pressure from big business in the EU to manage compromises. they know full well that tit-for-tat trade tariffs would seriously damage already fragile economies and Germany, whilst within the EU it may be the strongest at the present time would take the biggest hit of the bloc. They are already under severe pressure- both fiscally and politically from discontented population . The EU will have one less net contributor propping up the weak members Italy, Greece etc. adding to the burden.

 

We are in a very strong position in terms of any negotiation purely because of the EU countries (especially the ones with any clout - Germany), reliance on their economy exporting to us. Having said that, the government need to get their act together and get the ball rolling. Delays aren't helping anybody.

I expect that the scenario we will end up with is the UK becoming an Associate Member which gives us free trade across the EU member states providing any exports from the UK meet EU standards, same the other way. We won't accept the free movement which they will have to concede. We won't obviously have any impact in EU policy or political integration but that's fine. There will have to be some concession from us which I expect to be some sort of annual associate membership payment but nowhere near the levels in which we contribute to the EU now, which ok people will say any payment is a tarriff on trade really but it won't be allowed to be referred to as such because they will say it is for other benefits like sharing EU intelligence etc. This for me is how the EU should be working. No political union or law making involved just a simple trading partnership. I can't see anything else working.

 

I think this one could go either way. Really not sure. The industry / money interests could see us getting a reasonable deal. The rest of the EU might want to see us get a bum deal, so it does not encourage other nations to go down the same route. You could toss a coin

 

That is what we signed up for when we joined in 1973. Many of the younger forum members on here were not born when we joined, which in no way devalues their vote to either remain or leave, but I do believe not enough of the background history and the way the EU has evolved or mutated was discussed in the run up. Even if it did not change any of those under about 55's views it might have gone a long way to explain to them why we 'gimmers' were the main push behind leave. We have seen first hand the direction that the EU has taken and not just read about it. It may have reduced the amount of vitriol aimed at the "selfish old people" who have "taken their future away from them". Painful though it is, I still think it was right to clip the wings of the EU before it's political ambition made it untouchable.

 

We are currently in the "phoney war" period. All sides of the argument are shocked and appalled that the British have chosen the path that they have. There will be lots of discussion behind closed doors and the focus will be upon how the hell the country gets itself out of this mess. Any analysis of the vote shows Britain to be split from top to bottom. Two of the home nations voted to stay, two to leave. The young voted to stay, the old to leave. With respect, those who understood the implications of the vote have in the main voted to stay, those who did not have in the main voted to leave. London, the engine that powers the UK voted to stay, the north, the main beneficiary of EU funding voted to leave. The government is searching for a new Prime Minister and the opposition is in absolute disarray. Finally, the markets are all in turmoil, which is only to be expected since the markets make their money from turmoil. It is hard to imagine a more divided or confused country.

As a result, politicians on all sides of the debate, are choosing their words very carefully. Frankly, there is nothing to be gained by analysing what anyone is saying at the moment, because all statements are being made before policy has been determined or even discussed. There is no doubt that everyone in Europe will be poorer as a result of this vote. The main focus will be upon how to minimise the damage done. I know how I see that panning out and I have said in another thread how I expect it to happen. I expect the will of the British people to be reinterpreted, but that will only happen over the next 2 to 3 years. I expect nothing to happen in the short term.

 

I am 65 years of age. I voted REMAIN. I did not vote on the basis of the past. I voted on the basis of the future. I did not vote for some hairy fairy political reason. I voted because I felt it offered the best future for the country and offered the best future for my daughter.

 

I think we will get an OK deal. Access to the single market exchange for still adhering to all EU legislation on freedom of movement etc. Boris has said that's what he's aiming for and should be achievable.

 

Not saying everyone around our age did vote that way. As to 'hairy fairy' statement you have put yourself in the remain camp group that thinks everyone who did not vote your way is incapable of making a considered choice and therefore must be, thick, racist insular etc. etc. I did excatly the same as you stated in your last sentence. Only time will tell which one of us will turn out to be right. neither of us really know.

 

That is a pretty good assessment of the current situation athough I dont think we will be able to take 2-3 years over consolidation. The 10 year timeframe during the campaign was really just scare tactics as that is way too long to predict.

 

I agree with Red Rain (again). Except that both Juncker and Mrs Merkel have this morning reiterated that there can be no secret negotiations, and nothing until we have triggered Article 50 (which in my view can only legally be done by Parliament).

I agree Tekktyke that no trade deal would harm the EU, as well as ourselves. However, within the EU there are 27 states to share the pain (admittedly to varying extents). We'd take our side of the hit all on our own. The member states may feel it's a price worth paying to rid themselves of our obstructiveness.

 

There is an impasse at the moment. All the potential players on our side say no triggering of Article 50 before negotiation. The EU solidly says no negotiation before Article 50 is triggered. So I could easily see it taking 2-3 years, if not longer. That could be extended in the very likely event that litigation ensues about whether Parliament or the prime minister have the right to trigger Article 50. The irony is that that litigation could go all the way to the European Court!

 

Ah! that makes sense as to the extended timeframe mentioned. I thought RR was talking extended negotiation past the 2 year article 50 deadline ionce triggered. Not sure the pain as you put it in your other reply would be evenly distributed. Germany as biggest exporters to the UK would have the biggest hit and also have the biggest burden of supporting other member states who will also feel the pinch so a 'double whammy'. Many goods (particularly electrical white goods (and cars emanate from Italy (already in pretty bad way)) I think Germany could be the key albeit the toughest one to negotiate with to getting a good deal. Never thought I would say this but where is a 'Thatcher' when you need one!!

 

Oops sorry, just reread your post - You did not say evenly distributed. Eyes painted on!!

 

We haven't "clipped their wings" though Tekky, have we? We've clipped our own.
The best we can hope for is negotiating some sort of reasonable deal for access to the EU market. But that deal is going to be nothing like the new world (or rather old world) exit voters were promised by the Leave campaign.