Grand National Festival 2022...

Coral gone 6 places and Best Odds Guaranteed. I've picked my six fancies for the National:

Deise Aba.
Kildisart.
Escaria Ten.
Two For Gold.
Good Boy Bobby.
Fiddler On The Roof.

 

I'm with Delta Work, Any Second Now and Eclair Surf. But whereas I took 16's, 12's and 28's they are respectively now 8/1, 10/1 and 16/1. Eclair Surf needs three to drop out at final declarations tomorrow to get in the race. Delta Work is the one I'm keenest on. He ran a monster trial for this when easily beating Tiger Roll in the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Unpenalised for that win, I find it very easy to imagine Jack Kennedy hunting him around quietly and coming through strongly half way up the run-in. Like them all though, he will need to avoid trouble.

Tomorrow I'd be keen on Pic D'Ohry, Pied Piper and Protektorat. But the one I'm keenest on is Kateira in the closing mares' bumper (5.15). She has been saved for this by Dan Skelton since her very impressive debut win at Huntingdon. She could be very good indeed and I think her price (11/2 best) is huge.

 

It was hard to whittle my list down this year for the National I'm against backing horses that have failed previously. I'm not for backing horses just to plod round for me a place. Although I had a decent look at Burrow's Saint and Farclas. Cloth Cap has been out of sorts all season. Run Wild Fred has their beating but is carrying 11-7 which I think is too much weight.

As for Delta Work. I was impressed with the horse at Cheltenham and how stealthily he crept up. Looked to have plenty left in the tank. However, I don't like the weight.

Out of my picks I wanted something that hadn't ran over the course or distance before but had been running in decent races to a good level.

 

Not really had a look yet but usually go for two or three in the 14 to 20/1 bracket each way.

 

Snow Leopardess, done well over 3 miles in last few races. Could be worth a nice little each way

 

It's a fair observation, Mr D. Delta Work carries 11-9 as things stand and races off a handicap mark of 160. Tiger Roll carried 11-5 for the last of his two wins and ran off a mark of 159. The only horse to have carried 11-9 in the last twenty years or so was Many Clouds, who also ran off 160. But it does show that horses suited by the race can win off 159/160. Many Clouds won twice at Grade 2 level. But Delta Work has won no less than five Grade 1 chases. Furthermore, I think that if Jack can replicate the ride he gave him at Cheltenham the race ought to play out very nicely for him - provided he avoids trouble. I think he will jump these fences for fun. He has never fallen in sixteen starts over fences (one unlucky unseated at Leopardstown). Whatever you pick needs a bit of luck, but I thought that at 16/1 after the Cross Country he represented a fair bit of value. Tiger Roll won the same race prior to both of his National wins!

 

Can I hijack this thread SD for a general Aintree thread?

Interesting day tomorrow imo - plenty of horses who have failed at Cheltenham against those who have been saved for Aintree, plus lots that are bringing form from different races over different distances.

There's three for me tomorrow.

Kemboy in The Bowl - hates Cheltenham and so has been saved for this. Great record on flat tracks. No ground issues.

Zanahiyr in The Aintree Hurdle. Been crying out for a step up in trip, whereas I don't think Epatante has. The rest aren't good enough.

Jett in The Foxhunters. Finished 8th in The Big One last year, jumps these fences for fun. Has probably the best jockey in the race on board - which is a huge bonus in these races.

They're all favourites I think, which I normally don't like doing - but who cares.

And if you say no SD, then tough!

 

Nicholls held most of his back for Aintree. I'd expect him to have a good three days. I think Dan Skelton has a few good chances too.

 

No problem mate. Saves creating a new thread. The Thursday of the Aintree Grand National meeting it normally pays to be on the market principles.

1:45 Pic D' Orhy win and Gin on Lime e/w.
2:20 Brazil win and In the Air e/w.
2:55 Clan Des Obeaux.
3:30 Epatante.
4:05 Jett.
4:40 Before Midnight, Gunsight Ridge and Thyme White all e/w.
5:15 Ashroe Diamond and Iliade Allen both e/w.

 

I’ve whacked a 77-1 treble on them. If they don’t come in I’m going to be mildly disappointed.

 

The horse with a bit of class, a good weight and “big jumps” experience is Delta Work …. I managed to get 16/1 just before he was hit so if he gets a bit of luck, he’ll be top 3

 

I don't get how you can say that 11 stone 9 is a good weight. I'm not disputing it's chance of winning as Many Clouds won in 2015. However, it's some weight to carry. 4lbs more than Tiger Roll carried in it's second victory. It would be some effort. That said there a lot of poor horses carrying 11 stone or more.

 

Caribbean Boy is out of the National so Eclair Surf gets in with just 10-6. Serious player.

 

Great news. Does this mean everything else goes up a 1 lb?

 

I think the weight thing is overplayed these days. Years ago, the race was filled with slow boats who just stayed all day off a feather weight.

10 years ago Neptune Collinges carried 11'6 I think. Tiger Roll and Don't Push It both lumped 11'5. Personally, I'm only bothered about weight if the ground is really soft.

 

The defections have made me re-evaluate what I'm considering regarding the race. I'm glad I haven't put any money down yet. It's gone from 6 to 12 and I want it back down to 6 again.

Delta Work: Is the class horse of the race. I can't ignore the weight but it has the class.
Burrow's Saint: I was going to scratch it completely after the jockey said it emptied on him last year. However, it's run behind Al Boum Photo was impressive.
Longhouse Poet: has the beating of Run Wild Fred, Escaria Ten and Enjoy D' Allen on it's Irish runs.
Fiddler On the Roof: Ran a stormer in the Ladbroke at Newbury. However, the horse that beat it has crept in at the bottom. Fortescue.
Two For Gold: Ran a belter behind Fakir D'Oudairies at Ascot. That was over 2 and a half miles.
Escaria Ten: It was it's earlier runs behind Any Second Now and Galvin that drew me to it.
Good Boy Bobby: I was impressed with it's runs at Wetherby.
Kildisart: It won me over 2 grand when it won at Aintree on Grand National Day 2019. Always had a soft spot for the horse since then.
Enjoy D' Allen: I keep coming back to it for some reason.
Deise Abba: I was impressed with it's runs at Sandown.
Eclair Surf: I was on it when it finished second at Newcastle. The winner has since romped in at Ayr in the Scottish National.
Fortescue: Beat Fiddler On the Roof at Newbury.

Conclusion: I'm waiting until the morning of the race to make my final cut and I was premature with the excitement in my initial picks.

 

Just over a year ago, he was rated 170 and is now handicapped in the National at 160 with no penalty for the Cheltenham win last month.
I know 11.9 is high for the race but his form suggests he should have a few pounds more

 

For another way of looking at it, Delta Work has raced 16 times over fences (winning 7). In 14 of those races he has carried more than 11 stone 9 pounds. Admittedly most of those races were level weights contests, but five of his wins were at Grade One level. So he's well used to carrying the weight. It's just a question of whether the weight most of the rest of the field receives from him can help them to bridge the gap in class. And Cheltenham proved he stays at least three miles six furlongs. And he was passing Tiger Roll at the end of that race!

 

Absolutely agree … let’s hope he doesn’t fall at first !!

 

I'm wanting to stick £100 on delta work to win looked really good at Cheltenham. I know anyone could win national but can anyone stop him to make me change my mind, advice from anyone who knows more than me would be great, thanks.