How Do You Rate Our Playoff Odds?

This might all look very different come 2:15 pm today. On a very rough and ready basis (and willing to be shot down by those analysing it in greater depth) this is my view of the odds.

I reckon the top four places are gone - so two playoff places to play for. I give everyone from 5th to 10th a chance. (Peterborough in 10th because they play us, which could lever them in to the equation if they win. Not Fleetwood in 11th because they've played a game more than four of the others and have a poorer GD.) Two from six equals a 33% chance (2/1). Four of those six clubs have a better points total/GD/both than us, so I'd add a point to our price for that, taking us to a 25% chance (3/1). Sheff Utd and Chesterfield play each other on the last day (one of them has to lose points there) and we play all of those other five teams in the equation. I'd shave half a point off our odds due to those two factors, giving us a 28.5% chance. So overall, I'd rate us at 5/2 for a top six finish.

The bookies are offering us at 4/1. While that's arguably value, I'll not be investing on this occasion. Pressure can do funny things to teams/results - so in horseracing terms, I can see that there are factors which may result in the 'form' not working out. I reckon that Sheff Utd are arguably most vulnerable to this - they're already in the mix and have something to lose. Plus there's the weight of expectation which their phoney 'big team' mentality places upon them. If we do it I'll be so ecstatic at that to not regret having missed a potential winner!

As a guy said on here this week - it really is all in our own hands!

 

After today, I think we will be 8th and three points behind the play offs.

Monday and Tuesday will be interesting with everybody playing.

Everybody will win around us apart from Bradford, who I believe will pick up a draw so a win against Colchester is needed to be still three or four points behind play offs if we don't win today. Six or seven points behind play offs will be too much

 

I think we'll win today because I honestly believe Sheffield United are dog *****, their squad is piss poor, now where at the business end of the season and everyone is firing on all cylinders they're going to really struggling to cope with the pressure from clubs who are in good runs of form with lots of momentum and will be very lucky to hold on to their play off place, however even though I think we'll ease to victory today I still don't believe we'll make the playoffs, we'll draw with bradford & Peterborough and drop points at ether Colchester or Nottingham County , Chesterfield & Hilldale for the playoffs in my opinion

 

Yeah and look how bad we've been until 6 weeks ago, they had a settled squad and got in front of everyone while other clubs where gelling and settling down now we're at the business end class tells and they haven't any if they make the playoffs they'll go out by at least clear 3 goals in semis and that's a massive if

 

Let's be honest though we've been **** for all but the last 9 games.


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If I remember right, Chesterfield have the best run in. Although they play Sheffield United on the last game. I think Chesterfield could be 5th by the end of the season. Bradford are the team outside the top 6 I believe are most likely to make a push. They're out of the cup, still have games in hand and I think they'll be difficult to stop.

The saving grace for us is that, for us to be in the top 6, we'll have to take points off the teams around us. Rochdale, Sheffield United, Peterborough and Chesterfield at home and Bradford away. We need at least 12 points from these 5 games in my opinion.

Ideally we need to beat Colchester and Notts County too, who should prove to be winnable away games considering we've just got a point out of Bristol City away in a game we could easily have won.

It's not quite in our hands but 7 points this week keeps us well in the mix, 9 could put it in our hands.